[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110809-en":3,"doc-seo-110809-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110809,1374391974468,"Eden","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_29158cc5080c5b710cf443261637dec0",8,"Research & Report","Kenya - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - January 2022","Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis for Kenya finds high risk of both external and overall debt distress, despite the conclusion that Kenya’s debt is sustainable. The near-term weakening of solvency and liquidity indicators reflects high deficits from prior years and pandemic shocks, alongside export and growth slowdowns in 2020. Fiscal consolidation under the IMF-supported program, combined with gradual export and output recovery, is projected to stabilize debt by the program’s end and support more prudent medium-term levels while enabling social spending.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nKENYA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nJanuary 2022  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão, Asad Alam (IDA) Annalisa Fedelino, Martin Kaufman  \n(IMF)  \n\n| Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nKenya’s debt is sustainable. While overall and external ratings for risk of debt distress remain high, debt dynamics will be bolstered by the fiscal consolidation envisaged under the IMF supported program.1 High deficits––from the past and generated by the current shock – combined with the sharp slowdown in export and economic growth in 2020 caused by the pandemic, have resulted in near-term deterioration of solvency and liquidity debt indicators that is only partly offset by the ongoing recovery. Kenya’s debt indicators will improve as fiscal consolidation progresses and exports and output recover from the global shock, although improvement is particularly gradual for indicators in terms of exports. Sustained fiscal consolidation would stabilize debt towards the end of the program and bring it to more prudent levels over the medium term while securing resources to support social spending. Kenya has enjoyed strong access to international capital markets, and staff projections assume limited reliance on market financing over the coming three years beyond the rollover of existing Eurobonds. The DSA suggests that Kenya is susceptible to export and  \n1 The DSA analysis reflects a debt carrying capacity of Medium considering Kenya’s Composite Indicator Index of 3.04, based on the IMF’s 2021 October World Economic Outlook and the 2020 World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) .  \nexchange rate shocks; more prolonged and protracted shocks to the economy would also present downside risks to the debt outlook.  \nPUBLIC DEBT COVERAGE  \n1. For the purposes of this analysis, the perimeter of public debt covers the debt of the central government, Social Security Fund, central bank debt taken on behalf of the government, and government guaranteed debt (Text Table 1). Debt data include both external and domestic obligations and guarantees:  \n• The external DSA covers the external debt of the central government and the central bank, including publicly guaranteed debt, as well as of the private sector.  \n• The public DSA covers both external and domestic debt incurred or guaranteed by the central government. It does not cover the entire public sector, such as extra-budgetary units and county governments.2 Debt coverage excludes legacy debt of the predevolution county governments,3 estimated at Ksh 53.8 billion (0 .5 percent of 2020 GDP). In comparison to peers, Kenya maintains a high standard of debt transparency. The external public debt register includes granular data disclosure.4 The DSA uses a currency-based definition of external debt. There is no significant difference between a currency-based and residency-based definition of external debt, as nonresidents’ direct participation in the domestic debt market is small, at about one percent of total outstanding government securities.  \n2. The DSA includes a combined contingent liabilities stress test aimed at capturing the public sector’s exposure to SOEs, PPPs, and a financial market shock. In particular, the stress test incorporates the following shocks (Text Table 1):  \n• 3.1 percent of GDP to capture non-guaranteed debt of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) . This includes non-guaranteed debt of the 18 SOEs, considered to pose the highest fiscal risk, equal to KSh.105 billion (1 percent of GD","cbCaid3kfgiIU7rA","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaid3kfgiIU7rA","pdf",495700,1,27,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment and Outlook\n## External and overall debt distress risk\n## Judgment and debt sustainability conclusion\n# Debt Indicators and Macroeconomic Drivers\n## Fiscal consolidation and program assumptions\n## Pandemic shock and export/growth slowdown\n# Public Debt Coverage\n## Coverage perimeter and included subsectors\n## External vs public debt definitions\n# Contingent Liabilities Stress Test\n## SOEs and PPPs shock calibration\n## Legacy county debt and financial market shock","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall and external risk rating for Kenya’s debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates both the external debt distress risk and the overall risk of debt distress as high.\"},{\"question\":\"Why do Kenya’s solvency and liquidity indicators deteriorate in the near term?\",\"answer\":\"High deficits from past years and the current shock, together with a sharp slowdown in export and economic growth in 2020 due to the pandemic, drive near-term deterioration, partly offset by ongoing recovery.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the report assess public debt coverage for the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"Public debt coverage includes central government debt, Social Security Fund, central bank debt taken on behalf of the government, and government-guaranteed debt, covering both external and domestic obligations within specified perimeters.\"}]",1784487194,68,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"kenya-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-january-2022","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/kenya-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-january-2022/110809/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is the overall and external risk rating for Kenya’s debt distress?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The analysis rates both the external debt distress risk and the overall risk of debt distress as high.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Why do Kenya’s solvency and liquidity indicators deteriorate in the near term?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"High deficits from past years and the current shock, together with a sharp slowdown in export and economic growth in 2020 due to the pandemic, drive near-term deterioration, partly offset by ongoing recovery.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"How does the report assess public debt coverage for the analysis?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Public debt coverage includes central government debt, Social Security Fund, central bank debt taken on behalf of the government, and government-guaranteed debt, covering both external and domestic obligations within specified 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