[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110673-en":3,"doc-seo-110673-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110673,1374391975076,"Riley","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/14000253ca4ec9f6853?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1783305029341752051",8,"Research & Report","Kenya - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2021","Joint World Bank and IMF analysis evaluates Kenya’s debt sustainability under different risk dimensions. The overall assessment assigns a high risk of debt distress, driven by elevated deficits and the COVID-19 shock, which weakened solvency and liquidity indicators through lower exports and reduced growth. Debt dynamics are expected to improve with IMF-supported fiscal consolidation, gradual export recovery, and reduced vulnerabilities, though shocks to exports and exchange rates remain key downside risks.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nKENYA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nApril 2021  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Annalisa Fedelino and Martin Kaufman (IMF)  \n\n| Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nKenya’s debt is sustainable, and its debt dynamics will be bolstered by the fiscal consolidation envisaged under the IMF supported program. While planned fiscal consolidation will help address debt vulnerabilities exacerbated by the global COVID-19 shock, the risk of debt distress continues to be assessed as high. 1 High deficits—from the past and generated by the current shock—combined with the sharp decline in export and economic growth caused by the pandemic, have deteriorated solvency and liquidity debt indicators, particularly when measured against Kenya’s current debt-carrying capacity (evaluated as medium) . 2 Kenya’s debt indicators will improve as fiscal consolidation progresses and exports and output recover from the global shock, although improvement is particularly gradual for indicators in terms of exports. Sustained fiscal consolidation would stabilize debt towards the end of the program and bring it to more prudent levels over the medium term while securing resources to support social spending. Kenya has generally enjoyed strong access to international capital markets, and staff projections assume limited reliance on market financing over the coming three years and roll-over of existing Eurobonds. The DSA suggests that Kenya is susceptible to export and exchange rate shocks; more prolonged and protracted shocks to the economy would also present downside risks to the debt outlook.  \n1 Kenya was first assessed as being at high risk of debt distress in May 2020. IMF Country Report No. 20/156 (May 2020) contains the previous DSA conducted jointly with the World Bank.  \n2 The Composite Indicator for Kenya is estimated at 3.01, which translates into a Medium Debt-Carrying Capacity Assessment, revised from Strong. It is based on the 2020 October WEO and CPIA vintage released on July 2020.  \nPUBLIC DEBT COVERAGE  \n1. Kenya’s public debt includes obligations of the central government. Debt data include both external and domestic obligations and guarantees. The external DSA covers external debt of the central government and the central bank, as well as of the private sector; and stress tests apply to public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt. The public DSA covers both external and domestic debt incurred or guaranteed by the central government, and public domestic debt consists of central government debt. In this analysis, total public debt refers to the sum of public domestic and public external debt, however, it does not cover the entire public sector such as extrabudgetary units and county governments. 3 Debt coverage excludes legacy debt of the predevolution county governments (whose size is modest) .4 In comparison to peers, Kenya maintainsa high standard of debt transparency. The external public debt register includes granular data disclosure, which could be more regularly updated.5 The DSA uses a currency-based definition of external debt, as nonresidents’ direct participation in the domestic debt market, at about one percent of total outstanding government securities, is not significant.  \n2. The DSA includes contingent liability stress tests for SOEs, PPPs, and a financial market shock. In particular, the DSA incorporates:  \n• 3.1 percent of GDP to capture non-guaranteed debt of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and Public Private Partnerships (PPPs). Notably, the baseline already inc","cbCaiiVQjkEhGSuu","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiiVQjkEhGSuu","pdf",430068,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n## Debt Distress Risk Ratings\n## Debt Coverage and Contingent Liabilities\n## Background on Kenya’s Public Debt\n## Public Debt Coverage Structure","[{\"question\":\"What is the assessed risk of debt distress for Kenya?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates both the external debt distress risk and the overall risk of debt distress as high. Judgment is applied with no special judgment adjustments indicated.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors most weakened Kenya’s debt indicators after the COVID-19 shock?\",\"answer\":\"High deficits from prior years and the shock itself, combined with a sharp decline in exports and economic growth, deteriorated solvency and liquidity indicators. The deterioration is especially notable against Kenya’s medium debt-carrying capacity.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the report expect debt dynamics to evolve during the program?\",\"answer\":\"Debt indicators should improve as fiscal consolidation progresses and exports and output recover from the global shock. Improvement is described as particularly gradual for export-related indicators, with stabilization and more prudent debt levels expected toward the end of the program.\"}]",1784486537,55,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"kenya-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2021","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/kenya-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2021/110673/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the assessed risk of debt distress for Kenya?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The analysis rates both the external debt distress risk and the overall risk of debt distress as high. Judgment is applied with no special judgment adjustments indicated.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which factors most weakened Kenya’s debt indicators after the COVID-19 shock?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"High deficits from prior years and the shock itself, combined with a sharp decline in exports and economic growth, deteriorated solvency and liquidity indicators. The deterioration is especially notable against Kenya’s medium debt-carrying capacity.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How does the report expect debt dynamics to evolve during the program?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Debt indicators should improve as fiscal consolidation progresses and exports and output recover from the global shock. Improvement is described as particularly gradual for export-related indicators, with stabilization and more prudent debt levels expected toward the end of the program.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]