[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111145-en":3,"doc-seo-111145-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111145,549758146520,"Patrick","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80002397d8c0411e94?_k=1775819394049821470",8,"Research & Report","Kenya - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Summary","Kenya’s public debt is assessed as sustainable, but both the overall and external risk of debt distress remain high. Past large fiscal deficits and 2020 pandemic-driven export and output losses weakened solvency and liquidity indicators. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tighter global monetary conditions, access to commercial borrowing has been constrained. Debt burden projections have been revised upward, and liquidity pressures are highlighted around the June 2024 Eurobond rollover, with future improvement dependent on strong fiscal effort and resilience to shocks.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nHassan Zaman and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Catherine Pattillo and Eugenio Cerutti (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| KENYA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nKenya’s public debt is assessed to be sustainable, reflecting the authorities’ continued policy actions and expected robust export growth in the medium term. The overall and external ratings for risk of debt distress remain high. 1 High fiscal deficits in the past and pandemic-related export and output losses in 2020 had resulted in deterioration of solvency and liquidity debt indicators. Market pressures since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the monetary tightening in advanced countries have limited access to commercial borrowing. Compared to the last DSA assessment,2 the projections of debt burden metrics have been revised up, reflecting projected REER depreciation in 2023–2024 to support the needed external adjustment in the presence of balance of payments pressures, increased access to program financing, and higher projected interest expenses. Kenya is facing liquidity challenge in rolling over the June 2024 Eurobond in the context of unfavorable external conditions limiting access to international bond market for the frontier economies. Going forward, Kenya’s debt indicators are forecasted to improve, a stronger fiscal effort during the program helps turn the primary balance into a surplus, albeit gradually for the external debt service-toexports ratio. The DSA suggests that Kenya is susceptible to export, exchange rate, and primary balance shocks; more prolonged and protracted shocks to the economy would also present downside risks to the debt outlook. A natural disaster shock illustrates the very limited scope for meeting additional financing needs in a stress scenario  \n1 The DSA analysis reflects a debt carrying capacity of Medium considering Kenya’s Composite Indicator Index of 3. 01, based on the IMF’s October 2023 World Economic Outlook and the 2022 World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) .  \n2 See IMF Country Report No 2023/266 published in July 2023.  \nwithout jeopardizing debt sustainability, underscoring the importance of putting in place the necessary regulatory framework to tap private sector solutions and enable access to concessional green financing.  \n1. For the purposes of this analysis, the perimeter of public debt covers the debt of the central government, Social Security Fund, central bank debt taken on behalf of the government, and government guaranteed debt (Text Table 1). Debt data include both external and domestic obligations and guarantees:  \n• The external DSA covers the external debt of the central government and the central bank, including publicly guaranteed debt, as well as of the private sector.  \n• The public DSA covers both external and domestic debt incurred or guaranteed by the central government. It does not cover the entire public sector, such as extra-budgetary units and county governments.3 Debt coverage excludes legacy debt of the pre-devolution county governments,4 estimated at Ksh.53.8 billion (0 .4 percent of GDP), which is included in the contingent liabilities stress scenario (see below) .  \n• The DSA uses a currency-based definition of external debt. There is no significant difference between a currency-based and residency-based definition of external debt, as nonresidents’ direct participation in the domestic debt market is small, estimated at below one percent of total outstanding government securities (Text Table 2) .  \n2. The DSA includes a combined contingent liabilities stress test aimed at capturing the public sector’s exp","cbCaibdKt93l7NQV","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaibdKt93l7NQV","pdf",936111,1,30,"English","en",105,"# Risk ratings and outlook\n## Debt distress risk levels\n## Key drivers and scenario updates\n# Debt perimeter and coverage\n## Public vs external DSA\n## Exclusions and definitions\n# Contingent liabilities stress test\n## SOE/extra-budgetary and PPP shocks\n## Calibration approach and data collection","[{\"question\":\"Why is Kenya’s risk of debt distress rated as high despite a sustainable debt assessment?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis finds overall and external risk of debt distress remain high, reflecting weakened solvency and liquidity from past fiscal deficits and pandemic losses, alongside ongoing market and financing constraints.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors explain the upward revision in projected debt burden metrics compared with the previous DSA?\",\"answer\":\"Revisions reflect projected REER depreciation in 2023–2024, improved access to program financing, and higher projected interest expenses amid balance of payments pressures.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the DSA perimeter of public debt cover and exclude?\",\"answer\":\"It covers central government debt, Social Security Fund, central bank debt incurred for the government, and government-guaranteed debt; it excludes parts of the public sector such as extra-budgetary units and county governments, as well as legacy pre-devolution county debt handled in a contingent liabilities scenario.\"}]",1784488814,76,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"kenya-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-summary","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/kenya-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-summary/111145/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"Why is Kenya’s risk of debt distress rated as high despite a sustainable debt assessment?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The analysis finds overall and external risk of debt distress remain high, reflecting weakened solvency and liquidity from past fiscal deficits and pandemic losses, alongside ongoing market and financing constraints.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What factors explain the upward revision in projected debt burden metrics compared with the previous DSA?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Revisions reflect projected REER depreciation in 2023–2024, improved access to program financing, and higher projected interest expenses amid balance of payments pressures.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What does the DSA perimeter of public debt cover and exclude?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"It covers central government debt, Social Security Fund, central bank debt incurred for the government, and government-guaranteed debt; it excludes parts of the public sector such as extra-budgetary units and county governments, as well as legacy pre-devolution county debt handled in a contingent liabilities scenario.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":121},"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]