[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109737-en":3,"doc-seo-109737-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":88},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109737,1099514067438,"River Wang","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/100002539ee87300030?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1780474512215547542",8,"Research & Report","Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - November 2020","This joint debt sustainability analysis assesses Afghanistan’s external and overall debt distress risk as high. It examines how donor grants—currently financing about 40% of GDP—shape near-term outcomes, while projected shifts from grants toward debt financing over a longer 20-year horizon increase vulnerability. Under the baseline, the present value of debt to exports repeatedly exceeds thresholds, driving the high-risk rating. Political uncertainty, insecurity, aid shortfalls, and severe weather shocks are key downside risks. Strengthening domestic revenue, public spending effectiveness, fiscal risk management, export diversification, and debt management—including local debt market development—are identified as priorities.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nNovember 2020  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Zeine Zeidane and Gavin Gray (IMF)  \nThis debt sustainability analysis (DSA) assesses Afghanistan’s risk of external and overall debt distress as high. 1 Donor grants of about 40 percent of GDP currently finance Afghanistan’s underlying fiscal and external deficits. Given this aid dependence and limits to official concessional financing, both external and public debt are expected to remain low for the next decade. Hence, mechanical signals in this period suggest moderate risk of debt distress. However, the financing mix is projected to shift away from grants towards debt financing in the long run, which warrants the use of the extended 20-year period. In this longer horizon, one of the indicators, the ratio of present value of debt to exports, repeatedly breaches the threshold under the baseline scenario, suggesting the high-risk rating. Downside risks come from political uncertainty, continued insecurity, faster-than-expected-drop in aid, and severe weather shocks. Mobilizing domestic revenue, enhancing the effectiveness of public spending, and strengthening the management of fiscal risks, including those stemming from state-owned corporations (SOCs) and public private partnerships (PPPs) , should be priorities for the authorities. In addition, diversification of exports and strengthening debt management, including through local debt market development, will help Afghanistan improve its debt carrying capacity.  \n1 The DSA follows the IMF and World Bank Staff Guidance Note on the Application of the Joint Fund-Bank Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) for Low-Income Countries (LICs) (February 2018) . The Afghanistan’s Composite Indicator (CI) score is 2.61, which is based on the October 2019 WEO and the 2018 CPIA, and its debt carrying capacity is assessed to be weak.  \nBACKGROUND  \nPublic Debt Coverage  \n This DSA covers debt contracted by the central government and central bank debt owed to the IMF.2 Borrowing is done only by the central government as state and local governments cannot borrow by themselves (Public Finance and Expenditure Management Law, 2005). Majority of outstanding debt has been contracted through external loans to finance infrastructure projects. The central government has issued no guarantees for external borrowing by state/local governments or SOCs.3 The government’s debt to the central bank (DA Afghanistan Bank (DAB)) due to the Kabul Bank exposure was repaid in late-2019.4 External and domestic debt are classified based on their currency denomination which matches the residency-based classification given the lack of a domestically issued debt.  \nThe authorities are building capacity to systematically analyze risks arising from state-owned corporations (SOCs) and public-private partnerships (PPPs) . Key vulnerabilities stem from the lack of systematic financial reporting, analysis, and disclosure as well as the absence of consolidated fiscal risk oversight mandate by the Ministry of Finance. A recent IMF technical assistance mission laid out a reform agenda to strengthen the framework for analyzing and managing risks from SOCs and PPPs. The authorities are working to strengthen financial reporting at an individual SOC level, focusing on the largest SOCs, improve the SOC oversight framework, and form a more informed view about aggregate fiscal risks from the sector. A five-year plan for PPPs has been developed, and over a hundred projects are in the pipeline. While six projects are already under contract, neither the budget nor fiscal strategy paper quantifies contingent liabilities from such projects. Due to the lack o","cbCaijPlHbfHuMiL","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaijPlHbfHuMiL","pdf",1247177,3,1,15,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n## Debt distress risk assessment\n## Financing mix and horizon effects\n## Downside risks and policy priorities\n# Background\n## Public debt coverage\n## External and domestic debt classification\n## State-owned corporations and PPP contingent liabilities\n# Background on debt and short-term developments","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall conclusion of the Afghanistan debt sustainability analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis concludes that Afghanistan’s risk of external and overall debt distress is high.\"},{\"question\":\"Which policy priorities are recommended to improve debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"The report prioritizes mobilizing domestic revenue, improving public spending effectiveness, strengthening fiscal risk management (including risks from state-owned corporations and PPPs), diversifying exports, and strengthening debt management through measures such as local debt market development.\"}]","Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - November 2020 | PDF",1784482139,38,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":83,"head_meta":85,"extra_data":87,"updated_unix":29},"joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-november-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":82},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,51],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-november-2020/109737/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-31","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is the overall conclusion of the Afghanistan debt sustainability analysis?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The analysis concludes that Afghanistan’s risk of external and overall debt distress is high.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Which policy priorities are recommended to improve debt sustainability?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"The report prioritizes mobilizing domestic revenue, improving public spending effectiveness, strengthening fiscal risk management (including risks from state-owned corporations and PPPs), diversifying exports, and strengthening debt management through measures such as local debt market development.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":84,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":86,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":89},[90,94,98,102,107,112,117,120,125,128,132],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":91,"show_sort_weight":92,"slug":93},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":103,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":108,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":109,"show_sort_weight":110,"slug":111},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":113,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":114,"show_sort_weight":115,"slug":116},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},30,"research-report",{"id":121,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":122,"show_sort_weight":123,"slug":124},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":123,"slug":127},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":129,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":129,"slug":131},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":135},19,"General","general"]