[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110635-en":3,"doc-seo-110635-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110635,7971461740909,"Levi","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d",8,"Research & Report","Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moldova - December 2021","Joint World Bank-IMF debt sustainability analysis assesses Moldova’s risk of external and overall debt distress as low, while highlighting vulnerability to shocks to GDP growth. The baseline assumes continued commitment to prudent fiscal policy under the ECF/EFF program, amid COVID-19 related public debt increases in 2020. Stress tests are adjusted using customized scenarios and staff judgment to address exceptional, largely temporary pandemic factors, and the financing mix is expected to shift toward commercial borrowing by 2030.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nREPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nDecember 2021  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA) 1,2  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão and Lalita Moorty (IDA) Philip Gerson (EUR), Maria Gonzales  \n(SPR)  \n\n| Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Low |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Not applicable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes. Application of customized stress scenario to account for exceptional and transitory factors in 2020 related to COVID- 19 pandemic. |\n\nMoldova’s risk of debt distress remains low—unchanged from the Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) update published in April 2020.3Overall, public debt is considered sustainable with current debt carrying capacity assessed as strong4 , despite the COVID pandemic-induced increase in public debt to 35 percent of GDP in 2020 and the projected medium-term developmental spending needs. This assessment reflects a baseline which assumes that the authorities remain committed to prudent fiscal policy under the new ECF/EFF program. Stress tests have been adjusted given the exceptional nature from the largely temporary impact of the pandemic, where 2020 was  \n1 The FSM’s Composite Indicator of 1.67 indicates a weak debt-carrying capacity, based on the April 2021 IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the 2019 World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) .  \n2 This DSA has been prepared jointly by the IMF and World Bank, following the 2018 Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries.  \n3 This DSA was jointly prepared by IMF and World Bank staff.  \n4 Moldova’s Composite Indicator (CI) index, based on October 2021 WEO update and the World Bank’s 2020 CPIA, indicates that the country’s debt carrying capacity is strong (3.14) .  \ndropped from the calculations of historical average and variances (to reduce the calculated standard deviation by a factor to align it with the pre-pandemic stress test parameters through a customized stress test) . Thus, final risk ratings have been adjusted through the application of staff judgment. On this basis, the sustainability threshold is not breached in the customized stress scenario. The analysis shows that the overall risk of debt distress is low, but debt sustainability is vulnerable to shocks to GDP growth. In the long term, the financing mix is expected to shift from concessional to commercial borrowing by 2030. Private sector external debt remains relatively high, compared to other low-income countries, which could pose significant risks to external debt sustainability. The public debt trajectory remains vulnerable to risks, particularly from shocks to GDP growth. Improving governance, enhancing the effectiveness of public spending, and strengthening the management of fiscal risks, including those stemming from state-owned enterprises (SOEs), are priorities to contain public debt vulnerabilities.  \nPUBLIC DEBT COVERAGE  \n1. Moldova’s public debt includes obligations of the public sector (central government, local authorities, and public entities). Public debt includes external and domestic obligations of the central government, including arrears to suppliers and guaranteed debt. Domestic debt includes debt of state and municipal enterprises, companies with full or majority public ownership, and of local public authorities with maturity of a year and above, as stipulated in Law No. 419 (2006) on Public Sector Debt, State Guarantees and State On-lending.5 Debt contracted by the central government and central bank owed to the IMF is also covered.6 The debt coverage is on the residency basis.  \n5 PPG debt covers gross debt of the general governm","cbCaitqOWBGPDnJ9","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaitqOWBGPDnJ9","pdf",552958,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Key risk ratings and assessment\n## Customized stress scenarios and staff judgment\n# Public debt coverage\n## Scope of central government, guarantees, and IMF-related debt\n# Background on debt dynamics\n## Public and PPG debt trends around COVID-19","[{\"question\":\"What are the main debt distress risk findings for Moldova?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates both the risk of external debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress as low. It also notes vulnerability to GDP growth shocks despite the low overall rating.\"},{\"question\":\"How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect the debt sustainability assessment?\",\"answer\":\"COVID-19 increased public debt in 2020 and influenced the stress-testing approach. The analysis applies customized stress scenarios and staff judgment to reflect exceptional and transitory pandemic-related factors.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the report include in Moldova’s public debt coverage?\",\"answer\":\"Public debt coverage includes obligations of the public sector, including central government external and domestic debt, arrears to suppliers, and guaranteed debt. It also covers debt of state and municipal enterprises and certain local authorities based on stated legal provisions.\"}]",1784486362,53,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-moldova-december-2021","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-moldova-december-2021/110635/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What are the main debt distress risk findings for Moldova?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The analysis rates both the risk of external debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress as low. It also notes vulnerability to GDP growth shocks despite the low overall rating.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect the debt sustainability assessment?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"COVID-19 increased public debt in 2020 and influenced the stress-testing approach. The analysis applies customized stress scenarios and staff judgment to reflect exceptional and transitory pandemic-related factors.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What does the report include in Moldova’s public debt coverage?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Public debt coverage includes obligations of the public sector, including central government external and domestic debt, arrears to suppliers, and guaranteed debt. It also covers debt of state and municipal enterprises and certain local authorities based on stated legal provisions.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]