[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110793-en":3,"doc-seo-110793-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110793,2336464648746,"Skyler","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - June 2021","Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis update assesses Afghanistan’s risk of external and overall debt distress as high, unchanged from the November 2020 Extended Credit Facility-related DSA. The update applies minor revisions to the macroeconomic framework, with a longer projection horizon reflecting the expected shift in financing from grants toward debt. Despite moderate mechanical signals early on, baseline breaches of external debt-to-exports thresholds persist across the extended period. High risk is driven by export shocks and contingent liabilities, requiring prudent fiscal policy, revenue mobilization, improved spending effectiveness, stronger fiscal risk management, and enhanced debt management.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nJune 2021  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Zeine Zeidane and Gavin Gray (IMF)  \nThis debt sustainability analysis (DSA) update confirms Afghanistan’s risk of external and overall debt distress as high—unchanged from the previous DSA conducted in the context of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement’s approval in November 2020. 1 The macroeconomic framework underlying the update applies minor adjustments to the long-term growth, inflation, fiscal, and external paths of the November 2020 DSA. Mechanical signals in the first decade of projections suggest a moderate risk of debt distress, but the extended 20-year period is used given the projected shift in the financing mix from grants towards debt. During this extended period, the ratio of present value of debt-to-exports repeatedly breaches its threshold under the baseline, justifying the high-risk rating. Maintaining Afghanistan’s debt sustainability in the face of substantial downside risks from elevated political uncertainty, faster-than-expected-drop in aid, contingent liabilities, and weather shocks will require sound fiscal policy with prudent deficit levels, revenue mobilization and improved public spending effectiveness, and enhanced debt management. The authorities should also strengthen fiscal risk management capacity to mitigate risks from state-owned corporations (SOCs) and public private partnerships (PPPs) .  \n1 This DSA was jointly prepared by IMF and World Bank staff.  \nBASELINE SCENARIO  \n Macroeconomic assumptions underlying this DSA update are broadly in line with those in the previous DSA. GDP growth and inflation are expected to average 4.0 percent and 4.3 percent over the long term. Projections for grants over the long run are slightly lower, by an average of 2 percentage points of GDP, than in the previous DSA, with a commensurately lower primary expenditure, leaving fiscal deficit projections broadly unchanged. Exports and noninterest current account deficits are also projected close to the November 2020 DSA. Afghanistan received SDR 4.8 million debt service relief from the IMF’s Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) in 2020 and is scheduled to receive SDR 2.4 million CCRT relief for debt service due from April 14, 2021 to October 15, 2021. It benefitted from the Debt Service Suspension Initiative in 2020 (0.02 percent of GDP), the authorities requested an extension through June 2021 and are planning to request a further extension for the second half of 2021.  \n\n| Text Table 1: Macroeconomic Assumptions Comparison Table |\n| --- |\n| DSA Nov 2020 Current DSA\u003Cbr>2020-25 2026-40 2021-26 2027-41\u003Cbr>Real GDP (%) 2.7 4.0 4.0 4.0\u003Cbr>Inflation (GDP, deflator,%) 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.3\u003Cbr>Revenue and grants (% of GDP) 27.9 24.6 25.8 23.3\u003Cbr>Grants (% GDP) 13.3 6.4 11.2 4.7\u003Cbr>Primary expenditure (% GDP) 29.3 26.4 26.9 25.2\u003Cbr>Primary deficit (% GDP) 1.3 1.9 1.0 1.9\u003Cbr>Exports of G&S (% change) 11.4 6.6 8.6 6.2\u003Cbr>Noninterest current account deficit (% GDP) -7.9 9.1 -7.8 9.0 |\n| Sources: Afghan authorities and IMF staff estimates and projections |\n\n Afghanistan continues to be assessed as having weak debt-carrying capacity. Based on the October 2020 WEO macroeconomic indicators and World Bank’s 2019 CPIA (Country Policy and Institutional Assessment), Afghanistan’s composite indicator (CI) score is 2.54, below the lower cut-off value of 2.69, indicating a weak debt-carrying capacity rating. The composite score has declined since October 2020 mostly due to the change in global growth assumptions.  \n Public debt used in this DSA does not cover liabilities from SOCs and PPPs. The authorities are developing capacity to sy","cbCainRPRuUM2rdN","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCainRPRuUM2rdN","pdf",361752,1,12,"English","en",105,"# Baseline scenario\n# Risk rating and vulnerabilities\n## External debt distress\n## Key shocks and sensitivities\n## Public debt indicators","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall debt distress risk assessment for Afghanistan in this DSA update?\",\"answer\":\"Afghanistan’s risk of external and overall debt distress is assessed as high, remaining unchanged from the prior DSA tied to the Extended Credit Facility approval in November 2020.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the update’s macroeconomic framework differ from the November 2020 DSA?\",\"answer\":\"The update uses a framework with minor adjustments to long-term growth, inflation, fiscal, and external paths, and slightly lowers projected grants over the long run.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors make Afghanistan’s debt situation most vulnerable?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis highlights vulnerability to an export shock as the most extreme shock for debt-to-exports and debt service-to-exports ratios, and a combination shock as most extreme for debt-to-GDP and debt service-to-revenue ratios.\"}]",1784487105,30,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2021","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2021/110793/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is the overall debt distress risk assessment for Afghanistan in this DSA update?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Afghanistan’s risk of external and overall debt distress is assessed as high, remaining unchanged from the prior DSA tied to the Extended Credit Facility approval in November 2020.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"How does the update’s macroeconomic framework differ from the November 2020 DSA?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"The update uses a framework with minor adjustments to long-term growth, inflation, fiscal, and external paths, and slightly lowers projected grants over the long run.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Which factors make Afghanistan’s debt situation most vulnerable?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The analysis highlights vulnerability to an export shock as the most extreme shock for debt-to-exports and debt service-to-exports ratios, and a combination shock as most extreme for debt-to-GDP and debt service-to-revenue 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