[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109822-en":3,"doc-seo-109822-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109822,1374391974468,"Eden","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_29158cc5080c5b710cf443261637dec0",8,"Research & Report","Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - June 2020","Joint World Bank and IMF debt sustainability analysis for Myanmar assesses low risk of external and overall debt distress under the June 2020 baseline, while incorporating the COVID-19 shock. Macroeconomic assumptions shift due to weaker growth, a wider current account deficit, slower FDI, and declining inflation, alongside a fiscal stimulus that raises the budget deficit over the next two years. External financing gaps are quantified and supported by IMF/RFC-RFI, the DSSI, and other partners to maintain reserves and manage liquidity pressures.","Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nMYANMAR  \n# Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis\n\nJune 2020  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffsofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nandthe International Monetary Fund (IMF)Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Kenneth H. Kang and Bjoern Rother (IMF)  \n\n| Myanmar: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis1   |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress:   | Low2   |\n| Overall risk of debt distress:   | Low   |\n| Granularity in the risk rating   | Not applicable   |\n| Application of judgement:   | No   |\n| Macroeconomic projections   | The main changes in the current macroeconomic assumptions,compared with those in the 2019 DSA, stem from theestimated impact of COVID-19 (see text table for detailedcomparison) . Assuming a localized outbreak, real GDPgrowth is expected to slow down considerably to 1.4 percentin FY19/20 . The current account deficit is expected to widendue to lower garments and gas exports, higher medicalimports, and weaker tourism and remittances. FDIis expectedto slow as projects are delayed. Inflation is expected to declinereflecting commodity prices and subdued domestic demand.The fiscal stimulus required to manage the impact of thepandemic together with weak revenues will widen the budgetdeficit by about 2 percent of GDP annually over the next twoyears. A gradual recovery starting Q1 FY20/21 is projected.3   |\n\n1 This joint World Bank/IMF DSA has been prepared in the context of the 2020 request for emergency financing from the IMF(RCF/RFI) . The macro framework underlying this DSAis the same as that included in the staff report of the 2020 RCF/RFI requestwhich reflects recent global developments. The current macroeconomic framework reflects currently available information.However, updates with respect to economic impact and policy response totheCOVID -19 crisis are rapidly evolving and risks aretilted to the downside. Public debt covers the consolidated public sector debt, central bank debt borrowed on behalf of thegovernment, government-guaranteed debt and social security funds. SOE debt is on lent and is therefore included in the coverageof public external debt.  \n2 The LICDSF determines the debt sustainability thresholds by calculating a composite indicator (CI). Based on the CIscore (2.72),for Myanmar, the final debt carrying capacity classification for this DSA is medium. This is based on the October 201 9 WEO andCPIA 2018.  \n3 Myanmar’s fiscal year is on October-September basis. All tablesand figures are ona fiscal year basis. IntheDSA standard tables,for example, 2019 refers to FY2018/19 and ends in September 2019.  \n\n| Financing strategy   | To keep adequate reserves given uncertainties around thelength of the pandemic and preexisting financial sectorvulnerabilities, an external financing gap amounting toUS$1.7 billion is expected in FY19/20 . The external gap,which is expected to fill the fiscal gap, will be filled by a mixof external financing (IMF, the World Bank , ADB, EU andJapan, andthe DSSI). Such a strategy will help reduce pressureon monetizing the deficit and risks of disorderly externalmarket conditions.   |\n| --- | --- |\n\nMyanmar’s risk of external and overall debt distress continues to be assessed as low. External debtindicators are projected to continue ona downward trend; however, rapidly evolving circumstances haveraised the projected FY 2019/20 deficit and public debt levels, and made prominent several vulnerabilities(see text table) . The IMF’s RCF/RFI financing arrangement andthe Debt Service Suspension Initiative(DSSI), supported by the G-20 and the Paris Club, will enable a quick increase in priority spending inresponse to the effects of the pandemic. The DSA shows that, under the baseline, which reflects theCOVID-19 shock, all external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt indicators remain below theirpolicy relev","cbCailml4hXWBBaw","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCailml4hXWBBaw","pdf",2133559,4,1,11,"English","en",105,"# Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis\n## Risk of debt distress\n## Macroeconomic projections and COVID-19 impact\n## Financing strategy\n## Baseline and adverse scenarios","[{\"question\":\"What is the assessed risk of external debt distress and overall debt distress for Myanmar in this analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates both external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk as low under the baseline.\"},{\"question\":\"Which COVID-19 related factors drive the main changes in macroeconomic projections compared with the 2019 DSA?\",\"answer\":\"Growth is expected to slow sharply, the current account deficit is projected to widen due to weaker exports, higher medical imports, and reduced tourism and remittances, and inflation is expected to decline; fiscal deficits widen due to pandemic management needs and weak revenues.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the report propose financing to address Myanmar’s external financing gap during the pandemic period?\",\"answer\":\"It projects an external financing gap of about US$1.7 billion in FY19/20 and expects it to be filled through a mix of external financing from the IMF, World Bank, ADB, EU, Japan, and the DSSI to reduce reliance on monetizing the deficit.\"}]","Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - June 2020 | PDF",1784482535,28,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2020/109822/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-29","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is the assessed risk of external debt distress and overall debt distress for Myanmar in this analysis?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The analysis rates both external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk as low under the baseline.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Which COVID-19 related factors drive the main changes in macroeconomic projections compared with the 2019 DSA?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"Growth is expected to slow sharply, the current account deficit is projected to widen due to weaker exports, higher medical imports, and reduced tourism and remittances, and inflation is expected to decline; fiscal deficits widen due to pandemic management needs and weak revenues.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"How does the report propose financing to address Myanmar’s external financing gap during the pandemic period?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"It projects an external financing gap of about US$1.7 billion in FY19/20 and expects it to be filled through a mix of external financing from the IMF, World Bank, ADB, EU, Japan, and the DSSI to reduce reliance on monetizing the deficit.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]