[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109939-en":3,"doc-seo-109939-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109939,1374391974585,"Genevieve","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020 - Republic of Mozambique","Mozambique’s external public debt remains in distress, unchanged from the June 2019 Debt Sustainability Analysis. The assessment considers that future borrowing and government guarantees are closely linked to state participation in LNG development, keeping the outlook sustainable in a forward-looking sense. The G20 initiative is expected to provide near-term debt service relief and mitigate projected deterioration in debt liquidity indicators during the COVID-19 period.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nREPUBLIC OF MOZAMBIQUE  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nApril 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA) David Owen and Mark Flanagan (IMF)  \n\n| Republic of Mozambique: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of External debt distress: | In debt distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application ofjudgment | No |\n\nMozambique’s debt remains in distress, which is unchanged from the previous DSA published in June 2019. Considering that, to a large extent, future borrowing and government guarantees reflect state participation in the sizable liquified natural gas (LNG) development, debt is deemed sustainable in a forward-looking sense. Participation in the recently announced G20 initiative would provide debt service relief in the near term, thus flattening the projected sharp deterioration in debt liquidity indicators due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The possibility of an extension of the G20 initiative into 2021 would be a further mitigating factor for the debt sustainability assessment. The present value (PV) of external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt relative to GDP is projected to remain above the prudent threshold with a gradual declining path dropping below the threshold by 2028.The PV ofPPG external debt relative to exports would drop below the prudent threshold in 2024. The ratio of external public debt service to fiscal revenues would drop below the prudent threshold temporarily in 2020 but would breach again the threshold until 2030. The debt service-to-exports ratio would remain around the prudent threshold until 2023, when it dropsand remains below the threshold for the rest ofthe projection period.  \nPUBLIC DEBT COVERAGE  \n1. Compared to thelast DSA, 1 the coverage of public and publicly guaranteed debt remains unchanged (Text Table 1) . The scope of Mozambique’s public debt covers data on external and domestic obligations of the central and local governments. The authorities also provided debt data on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and SOE debt guarantees. 2 The debt covered by the DSA excludes Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa (HCB).3 Domestic debt is denominated in local currency and, for the purposes of the analysis, domestic debt is assessed by currency and not by residence as data capturing the residency of creditors are unavailable.  \nText Table 1. Mozambique: Public Debt Coverage Under the Baseline Scenario  \n\n|  |  Subsectors of the public sector Sub-Sectors covered\u003Cbr>Central government X\u003Cbr>State and local government X\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) X Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) X Non-guaranteed SOE debt X |\n| --- | --- |\n| 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 |  |\n\nBACKGROUND  \nRecent Economic and Debt Developments  \n2. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the Mozambican economy was recovering from Tropical Cyclones (TCs) Idai and Kenneth which struck in 2019. GDP growth decelerated to 2.2 percent in 2019 driven by the adverse supply shock oftheTCs anda contraction in the extractive industry. However, despite the supply shock, inflation declined to 3.1 percent (y/y) in March, from 3.5 percent (y/y) in December 2018, due to subdued aggregate demand, well anchored inflation expectations, and a broadly stable exchange rate. The current account deficit improved to 20.8 percent of GDP in 2019, from 30.9 percent of GDP in 2018, mainly dueto: (1) a much lower-than-expected megaproject imports of services; and (2) a large payment (US$880 million) of one-off ca","cbCaimMWsbTvts1V","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaimMWsbTvts1V","pdf",545152,3,1,17,"English","en",105,"# Risk of debt distress\n## External debt distress rating\n## Judgment and granularity of the risk assessment\n# Public debt coverage\n## Scope of covered obligations\n## Exclusions and currency basis\n# Background: economic and debt developments\n## Impact of COVID-19 and prior cyclones\n## Macroeconomic indicators and fiscal dynamics\n# Updated debt stocks and projection indicators\n## Revisions after GDP rebasing","[{\"question\":\"What is Mozambique’s overall risk of debt distress in this analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates both the risk of external debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress as “In debt distress.”\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the report consider debt sustainable in a forward-looking sense?\",\"answer\":\"Future borrowing and government guarantees are linked to state participation in LNG development; combined with possible G20 debt service relief, this is seen as mitigating deterioration in liquidity indicators.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the debt sustainability analysis cover regarding Mozambique’s public debt?\",\"answer\":\"It covers external and domestic obligations of the central and local governments, includes data on SOEs and SOE debt guarantees, and excludes Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa (HCB).\"}]","Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020 - Republic of Mozambique | PDF",1784483126,43,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020-republic-of-mozambique","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,51],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020-republic-of-mozambique/109939/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-31","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is Mozambique’s overall risk of debt distress in this analysis?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The analysis rates both the risk of external debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress as “In debt distress.”","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Why does the report consider debt sustainable in a forward-looking sense?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"Future borrowing and government guarantees are linked to state participation in LNG development; combined with possible G20 debt service relief, this is seen as mitigating deterioration in liquidity indicators.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"What does the debt sustainability analysis cover regarding Mozambique’s public debt?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"It covers external and domestic obligations of the central and local governments, includes data on SOEs and SOE debt guarantees, and excludes Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa (HCB).","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]