[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111266-en":3,"doc-seo-111266-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111266,1649267921044,"Ava Thompson","https://us-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1800007509477c92dfb?_k=1782875107921204101",8,"Research & Report","Islamic Republic of Mauritania - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate Risk of External and Overall Debt Distress","Joint IDA-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis assesses Mauritania’s risk of external and overall public debt distress as moderate, with some room to absorb shocks, unchanged from the prior December 2024 DSA. Under the baseline scenario, external and public debt indicators stay below thresholds, while the PV of debt-to-GDP and PV of debt-to-exports breach thresholds in the natural disaster scenario. Debt remains sustainable given the country’s medium debt-carrying capacity, yet downside risks include commodity price volatility, security concerns in the Sahel, and geopolitical tensions, alongside potential upside from GTA gas phases and other mining projects. The assessment emphasizes maintaining a prudent borrowing strategy.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA) , and Taline Koranchelian and Jacques Miniane (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF MAURITANIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Some space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nMauritania’s risk of external and overall public debt distress is assessed as “moderate”—unchanged from the previous DSA published in December 2024—with ‘some space’ to absorb shocks. All external and public debt indicators remain below their thresholds during the whole projection period under the baseline scenario, but both the PV of debt-to-GDP and PV of debt-to-exports ratios breach their thresholds under the natural disaster scenario. External and public debt therefore continue to be assessed as sustainable. Mauritania is assessed as having a medium debt-carrying capacity, in line with the previous DSA. This assessment is subject to downside risks. Adverse price fluctuations in commodity markets could lower fiscal revenue, increase external financing needs, and worsen the medium-term debt profile. Security concerns in the Sahel region and intensified geopolitical tensions present additional risks through their respective impacts on economic stability and food prices. Upside risks include the potential phases 2 and 3 of the GTA gas project and possibly other mining projects, and better than expected terms of trade developments. The DSA highlights the need to maintain a prudent borrowing strategy, that prioritizes grantsand concessional financing taken up at a moderate pace consistent with absorptive capacity, to keep debt service contained.1  \n1 Mauritania’s Composite Indicator is estimated at 2.88 that suggests the “moderate” debt carrying capacity. The CI is the weighted average of the 10-year average of the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) score and macro-economic variables from the October 2025 WEO vintage.  \n1. The DSA covers central government and public agencies, government guaranteed debt of state-owned enterprises (SOE), and the central bank (BCM) . In line with the 2018 guidance note on the LIC-DSF, public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt excludes non-guaranteed debt of the national mining company, the Société Nationale Industrielles et Minière (SNIM), classified as private external debt (SNIM has one publicly guaranteed loan with the Fonds Arabe for le Développement Economique et Social, FADES, which is included) .2 ,3 PPG debt excludes borrowing by the state-owned oil company, the Société Mauritanienne des Hydrocarbures, (SMH), to finance Mauritania’s participation in the Grand Tortue/Ahmeyim (GTA) offshore gas project in the baseline, instead including this loan as a contingent liability.4 Consistent with previous DSAs, external debt is defined on a residency basis.  \n\n|  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  | 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 | Subsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered |  |\n|  |  | Central government X\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) X Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) X Non-guaranteed SOE debt |  |\n|  |  |  |  |\n\n2. The authorities continue to work towards regularizing longstanding arrears. Mauritania has two remaining cases relating to longstanding arrears (neither of them included in the DSA) .  \no The first relates to outstanding arrears to Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), disbursed over 1974-1976, totaling a stock of US$7 .2 million, but is","cbCaikrgyoFy5XlG","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaikrgyoFy5XlG","pdf",872620,1,26,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment\n## Baseline vs Natural Disaster Scenarios\n# Debt Coverage and Assumptions\n## Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt Scope\n## Contingent Liabilities and Exclusions\n# Key Risks and Policy Guidance\n## Downside Risks\n## Upside Risks\n## Prudent Borrowing Strategy","[{\"question\":\"How is Mauritania’s external and overall debt distress risk rated?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates both external and overall public debt distress as “moderate,” unchanged from the prior DSA in December 2024.\"},{\"question\":\"What happens to debt indicators under the baseline and natural disaster scenarios?\",\"answer\":\"Under the baseline scenario, all external and public debt indicators remain below thresholds throughout the projection period. Under the natural disaster scenario, the PV of debt-to-GDP and PV of debt-to-exports breach their thresholds.\"},{\"question\":\"What key factors create downside risks to Mauritania’s medium-term debt outlook?\",\"answer\":\"Downside risks include adverse commodity price fluctuations that can reduce fiscal revenue and increase external financing needs, as well as security concerns in the Sahel and intensified geopolitical tensions affecting economic stability and food prices.\"}]",1784489378,66,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"islamic-republic-of-mauritania-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-of-external-and-overall-debt-distress","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/islamic-republic-of-mauritania-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-of-external-and-overall-debt-distress/111266/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"How is Mauritania’s external and overall debt distress risk rated?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The analysis rates both external and overall public debt distress as “moderate,” unchanged from the prior DSA in December 2024.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What happens to debt indicators under the baseline and natural disaster scenarios?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Under the baseline scenario, all external and public debt indicators remain below thresholds throughout the projection period. Under the natural disaster scenario, the PV of debt-to-GDP and PV of debt-to-exports breach their thresholds.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What key factors create downside risks to Mauritania’s medium-term debt outlook?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Downside risks include adverse commodity price fluctuations that can reduce fiscal revenue and increase external financing needs, as well as security concerns in the Sahel and intensified geopolitical tensions affecting economic stability and food prices.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]