[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-638528-105":59,"doc-detail-638528-en":130},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":123,"head_meta":125,"extra_data":127,"updated_unix":129},105,"en","international-friends-and-enemies-working-paper-no-292","International Friends and Enemies - Working Paper No. 292","","We study how economic dependence on a trade partner affects political alignment. Using network measures of economic exposure to foreign productivity growth from trade models with constant trade elasticity, the paper defines “economic friends” and “enemies” by their implications for real income. Causal identification relies on quasi-experimental variation from China’s global emergence and falling air travel costs. Results show economic friendship increases political friendship, with theory-based network measures outperforming simpler trade links.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/international-friends-and-enemies-working-paper-no-292/638528/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/international-friends-and-enemies-working-paper-no-292/638528.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Helloiii","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-11-01","2026-10-22",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":24},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What is the core question of the paper?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"The paper asks whether countries realign politically toward a trade partner as their economic dependence on that partner increases.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"How does the paper measure “economic friendship” and “enemy” status?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"A country is an economic friend if its partner’s productivity growth raises the partner’s real income, and an enemy if the opposite holds.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"What sources are used to establish causality?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"Causality is established using quasi-experimental variation from China’s emergence into the global economy and reductions in the cost of air travel over time.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},638528,1792918756,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":24,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":36,"language":139,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":143,"read_time":144},5909897196768,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_29158cc5080c5b710cf443261637dec0","International Friends and Enemies  \nby  \nBenny Kleinman, Princeton University Ernest Liu, Princeton University Stephen J. Redding, Princeton University, NBER and CEPR  \nGriswold Center for Economic Policy Studies Working Paper No. 292, April 2022  \nInternational Friends and Enemies*  \nBenny Kleinman†  \nPrinceton University  \nErnest Liu‡  \nPrinceton University  \nStephen J. Redding§  \nPrinceton University, NBER and CEPR  \nMarch 24, 2022  \nAbstract  \nWe examine whether as countries become more economically dependent on a trade partner, they realign politically towards that trade partner. We use network measures of economic exposure to foreign productivity growth derived from the class of trade models with a constant trade elasticity. We establish causality using two di􀀝erent sources of quasi-experimental variation: China's emergence into the global economy and the reduction in the cost of air travel over time. In both cases, we 􀀛nd that increased economic friendship causes increased political friendship, and that our theory-based network measures dominate simpler measures of trading relationships between countries.  \nKeywords: international relations, trade, productivity growth, real income JEL Classi􀀛cation: F14, F15, F50  \n*We are grateful to Princeton University for research support. We would like to thank David Atkin, Keith Head, Xavier Jaravel, Nathan Lane, Thierry Mayer, Tommaso Porzio, Nancy Qian, Kadee Russ, Johannes Stroebel, Chenzi Xu, and conference and seminar participants at China Economics Summer Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta/Emory University, Geneva Online Trade and Development Workshop, Harvard-MIT, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Nottingham University, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), National University of Singapore, Peking University, Penn State University, Princeton University, Queen Mary University of London, the RIDGE Conference in Trade and Development, the STEG Annual Conference 2021, and the World Bank for helpful comments and suggestions. We are grateful to Xavier Jaravel for sharing the strategic rivalry data. We also would like to thank Gordon Ji, Ian Sapollnik and Maximilian Schwarz for excellent research assistance. The usual disclaimer applies.  \n†Dept. Economics, JRR Building, Princeton, NJ 08544 . Email: [binyamin@princeton.edu](binyamin@princeton.edu).  \n‡Dept. Economics, JRR Building, Princeton, NJ 08544 . Email: [ernestliu@princeton.edu](ernestliu@princeton.edu).  \n§ Dept. Economics and SPIA, JRR Building, Princeton, NJ 08544 . Email: [reddings@princeton.edu](reddings@princeton.edu).  \n1 Introduction  \n“Throughout history, anxiety about decline and shifting balances of power has been accompanied by tension and miscalculation ... Traditionally the test of a great power was its strength in war. Today, however, the de􀀛nition of power is losing its emphasis on military force ... The factors of technology ... and economic growth are becoming more signi􀀛cant in international power.” (Nye 1990, pp. 153-4)  \nWe examine whether as countries become more economically dependent on a trade partner, they realign politically towards that trade partner. We use network measures of economic exposure to foreign productivity growth from the class of trade models with a constant trade elasticity. We de􀀛ne a country as an economic friend of a trade partner if its productivity growth raises the partner's real income and an enemy if the converse is true. We combine these economic exposure measures with a variety of alternative measures of political alignment, including United Nations voting, strategic rivalries and formal alliances. We establish causality using two di􀀝erent sources of quasi-experimental variation. First, we use China's emergence into the global economy following its domestic reforms of 1978 as an exogenous source of variation in other countries'real income exposure. Second, we use the reduction in the cost of air travel over time, which changes the relative rea","cbCaivhXOpCmxzbq","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaivhXOpCmxzbq","pdf",1120255,"English","# Abstract\n# Introduction\n## Political alignment and economic dependence\n## Measuring economic exposure with trade models","[{\"question\":\"What is the core question of the paper?\",\"answer\":\"The paper asks whether countries realign politically toward a trade partner as their economic dependence on that partner increases.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the paper measure “economic friendship” and “enemy” status?\",\"answer\":\"A country is an economic friend if its partner’s productivity growth raises the partner’s real income, and an enemy if the opposite holds.\"},{\"question\":\"What sources are used to establish causality?\",\"answer\":\"Causality is established using quasi-experimental variation from China’s emergence into the global economy and reductions in the cost of air travel over time.\"}]","International Friends and Enemies - Working Paper No. 292 | PDF",1792685269,101]