[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-428127-105":59,"doc-detail-428127-en":130},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":123,"head_meta":125,"extra_data":127,"updated_unix":129},105,"en","in-search-of-the-nairu","In Search of the NAIRU","","Explores the NAIRU (“nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment”) as a benchmark for inflation dynamics, linking movements between actual unemployment and the NAIRU to whether inflation falls or rises. Reviews the apparent mismatch during the late-1990s U.S. expansion, when unemployment ran below common NAIRU estimates while inflation declined. Examines how productivity shocks and modern labor-market theory may affect or rescue the NAIRU framework, using the dating-market metaphor to clarify the concept of a “natural” unemployment rate.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/in-search-of-the-nairu/428127/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/in-search-of-the-nairu/428127.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Muffet","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-22","2026-09-29",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":44},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What does the NAIRU measure in relation to inflation?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"The NAIRU is defined as the unemployment rate that, on average, has been associated with stable inflation when matched by the actual unemployment rate.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"Why did the late-1990s U.S. data challenge the NAIRU framework?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"For several years, unemployment stayed below many NAIRU estimates, yet inflation fell throughout 1997, creating a discrepancy between “theory” and experience.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"How does the paper suggest productivity shocks might affect the NAIRU?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"It argues that favorable productivity advances may lower the NAIRU, allowing lower unemployment without an inflation flare-up, but concludes that productivity alone may not fully explain the framework’s recent failures.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},428127,1790763761,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":44,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":139,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":144,"read_time":145},962090768927,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_085a072bc5b1113ac321206ff7593b45","# In Search of the NAIRU\n\nby David Altig and Paul Gomme  \nFew ideas arise more frequently inmonetary policy discussions than theNAIRU,an acronym for the awkwardphrase \"nonaccelerating inflation rateof unemployment.\"The NAIRU—ormore precisely,its relationship to theunemployment rate—is presumed to bean inflationary bellwether.When theactual unemployment rate exceeds theNAIRU,the inflation rate falls;whenthe actual rate is below the NAIRU,inflation rises.  \nFor the past several years,the U.S.un-employment rate has been lower thanmost NAIRU estimates.The 1998Economic Report ofthe President,forexample,gave a NAIRU estimate of  \n5.5 percent for 1997.The actual rate ofunemployment,however,began theyear at 5.3 percent and fell to 4.6 per-cent by year's end.Yet,by almost anymeasure,inflation fell throughout 1997(see table 1).  \nThis is a perplexing combination ofevents because,loosely speaking,theNAIRU is thought to represent a natural\"speed limit\"for economic activity.Inother words,it measures a nation's sus-tainable production capacity.When theeconomy grows at a rate faster than itsresources can support over the long run(which presumably occurs when the un-employment rate falls below the NAIRUfor an extended period),price pressuresbuild and,eventually,burst through to anacceleration of the inflation rate.  \nThe NAIRU framework's apparent fail-ure to describe the evolution of inflationover the course of the current expansionhas prompted some brave souls to pro-claim the dawning of a new economicera,onein which\"speed limits\"have  \nblessedly been revoked forever.Criticsof this view—economist/columnist PaulKrugman among them—argue that sucha development would be tantamount torepealing the weather.However,thesecritics concede,it is true that sometimesit rains and sometimes it shines,and alogical interpretation of the recent dis-crepancy between \"theory\"and experi-ence is that good fortune has given us aNAIRU that is,in fact,lower than mostestimates imply.  \nThis take on the situation has an air ofplausibility because increased productiv-ity,made possible by the maturation ofthe computer technology revolution,isone obvious source of our good fortune.In essence,favorable technology ad-vances have lowered the NAIRU,andthe economy has begun operating with anew speed limit that allows us to enjoylower unemployment rates without ignit-ing a flare-up in inflation.  \nThe only problem with this slant onevents is that it is not obviously correct.In this Economic Commentary;we dis-cuss what the modern theory of labormarkets has to say about the effect ofproductivity shocks on notions like theNAIRU.We conclude that if the NAIRUframework is to survive as a viable toolfor understanding monetary policy,morethan an appeal to accelerated productiv-ity growth will be needed to salvage itfrom its recent failures.²  \n## ■ Inflation,the NAIRU,and the\"Natural\"Rate of Unemployment\n\nWhat,exactly,is the NAIRU?Strictlyspeaking,the definition is statistical,nottheoretical:The NAIRU is the unem-ployment rate that experience tells ushas,on average,been associated withstable inflation when matched by theactual rate of unemployment.  \nMay 1,1998  \nWhat do dating and Brad Pitt tell usabout unemployment?  \nWhy inflation-rate stability would re-quire that there be no gap betweenactua unemployment rates and theNAIRU is not usually made explicit,which is just to say that the theoreticalfoundation of the NAIRU and its role indetermining inflation is often fuzzy.Furthermore,using formal economictheory to clarify the relationship re-quires answering two not-so-easy ques-tions:What determines the NAIRU?And how does the unemployment rateand its relationship to the NAIRU affectthe inflation rate?  \nWe will make no attempt to answer thesecond question,but,for the sake ofargument,will take it as given that infla-tion rate changes result when the unem-ployment rate deviates from the NAIRU.Let's accept provisionally that the infla-tion rate falls when the unemploymentrate rises abov","cbCaifQB6NjHMCaf","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaifQB6NjHMCaf","pdf",2561133,11,"English","# Inflation, the NAIRU, and the \"Natural\" Rate of Unemployment\n## The Dating Game: A Useful Metaphor","[{\"question\":\"What does the NAIRU measure in relation to inflation?\",\"answer\":\"The NAIRU is defined as the unemployment rate that, on average, has been associated with stable inflation when matched by the actual unemployment rate.\"},{\"question\":\"Why did the late-1990s U.S. data challenge the NAIRU framework?\",\"answer\":\"For several years, unemployment stayed below many NAIRU estimates, yet inflation fell throughout 1997, creating a discrepancy between “theory” and experience.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the paper suggest productivity shocks might affect the NAIRU?\",\"answer\":\"It argues that favorable productivity advances may lower the NAIRU, allowing lower unemployment without an inflation flare-up, but concludes that productivity alone may not fully explain the framework’s recent failures.\"}]","In Search of the NAIRU | PDF",1790645881,28]