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Supervised machine learning with Lasso regularization and generalized estimating equations related baseline systemic biomarkers to outcomes across cartilage turnover, bone remodeling, pain, and lipid metabolism. Model findings linked outcomes to PIIANP, Visfatin, adiponectin, and leptin, with PIIANP associated with improvement and Visfatin with worsening up to one year, supporting the need for further validation.",{"@graph":14,"@context":73},[15,34,56],{"@type":16,"itemListElement":17},"BreadcrumbList",[18,23,27,31],{"item":19,"name":20,"@type":21,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",1,{"item":24,"name":25,"@type":21,"position":26},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":28,"name":29,"@type":21,"position":30},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/","Research & 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for Trapeziometacarpal Osteoarthritis Using Machine Learning  \nMauro Maniglio 1, Moaath Saggaf 2, Nupur Purohit 3, Daniel Antflek 3, Jason S. Rockel 4,5, Mohit Kapoor 4,5,6 and Heather L. Baltzer 2,3,5, *  \nAcademic Editor: El˝odErn˝o Nagy  \nReceived: 27 August 2025  \nRevised: 2 October 2025  \nAccepted: 6 October 2025  \nPublished: 10 October 2025  \nCitation: Maniglio, M.; Saggaf, M.; Purohit, N.; Antflek, D.; Rockel, J.S.; Kapoor, M.; Baltzer, H.L. Identifying Plasma Biomarkers That Predict Patient-Reported Outcomes Following Treatment for Trapeziometacarpal Osteoarthritis Using Machine Learning. Int. J. Mol. Sci. 2025, 26, 9856. [https://doi.org/10.3390/](https://doi.org/10.3390/)[ ](https://doi.org/10.3390/)ijms26209856  \nCopyright: © 2025 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license ([https://creativecommons.org/](https://creativecommons.org/)[ ](https://creativecommons.org/)[licenses/by/4.0/](licenses/by/4.0/)) .  \n1 Department of Hand Surgery, The Balgrist, University Clinic, 8008 Zürich, Switzerland; [mauro.maniglio@balgrist.ch](mauro.maniglio@balgrist.ch)  \n2 Division of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5R 0A3, Canada; [m.saggaf@mail.utoronto.ca](m.saggaf@mail.utoronto.ca)  \n3 Department of Hand and Plastic Surgery, Toronto Western Hospital, UHN University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5T 2S8, Canada; [nupur.purohit@uhn.ca](nupur.purohit@uhn.ca) (N.P.); [daniel.antflek@uhn.ca](daniel.antflek@uhn.ca) (D.A.)  \n4 Osteoarthritis Research Program, Division of Orthopaedics, Schroeder Arthritis Institute, University Health Network, Toronto, ON M5T 0S8, Canada; [jason.rockel@uhn.ca](jason.rockel@uhn.ca) (J.S.R.); [mohit.kapoor@uhn.ca](mohit.kapoor@uhn.ca) (M.K.)  \n5 Krembil Research Institute, University Health Network, Toronto, ON M5T 0S8, Canada  \n6 Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 3K3, Canada  \n* [Correspondence: heather.baltzer@uhn.ca](Correspondence: heather.baltzer@uhn.ca)  \nAbstract  \nOsteoarthritis (OA) in the trapeziometacarpal joint (TM) is a prevalent form of hand OA, yet research on biomarkers specific to hand OA remains limited. This study aims to identify systemic plasma biomarkers at baseline in TM OA patients that are associated with patientreported outcomes one year post-treatment. Blood samples and clinical data were collected prospectively from 143 TM OA patients undergoing conservative therapy, fat grafting, or surgery, with one-year follow-up. Supervised machine learning with Lasso regularization analyzed associations among 10 systemic biomarkers related to cartilage turnover, bone remodeling, pain, or lipid metabolism. Generalized estimating equation models evaluated baseline biomarker associations with one-year outcomes. Patients averaged 61 years, were mostly female (69%), and were primarily treated conservatively (47%) . The machine learning model identified associations between outcomes and biomarkers, including PIIANP, Visfatin, adiponectin, and leptin. Adjusted analyses revealed baseline PIIANP associated with VAS, QuickDASH, and TASD improvements, while Visfatin correlated with VAS worsening. We could identify two different plasma markers that could predict the clinical outcome of TM OA treatment. Baseline PIIANP is associated with improvement, while Visfatin is associated with worsening in TM OA outcomes up to one year post-treatment. Further prospective studies are needed to confirm and solidify these findings.  \nKeywords: plasma biomarkers; osteoarthritis; trapeziometacarpal joint; first carpometacarpal joint; CMC-1 osteoarthritis; TM osteoarthritis; trapeziometacarpal osteoarthritis; first carpometacarpal osteoarthritis  \n1. Introduction  \nOsteoart","cbCaiaehyt8Apumq","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiaehyt8Apumq","pdf",462667,"English","# Abstract\n# Introduction","[{\"question\":\"What was the study’s main goal for TM osteoarthritis patients?\",\"answer\":\"To identify baseline systemic plasma biomarkers in TM OA patients that are associated with patient-reported outcomes one year after treatment.\"},{\"question\":\"How were biomarkers analyzed in the study?\",\"answer\":\"The study used supervised machine learning with Lasso regularization to analyze associations among 10 systemic biomarkers, and generalized estimating equation models to evaluate baseline biomarker relationships with one-year outcomes.\"},{\"question\":\"Which plasma biomarkers were linked to clinical outcome changes after treatment?\",\"answer\":\"Baseline PIIANP was associated with improvement in outcomes, while Visfatin was associated with worsening up to one year post-treatment.\"}]","Identifying Plasma Biomarkers That Predict Patient-Reported Outcomes Following Treatment for Trapeziometacarpal Osteoarthritis Using Machine Learning | PDF",1789643319,25]