[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-324743-105":59,"doc-detail-324743-en":131},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":124,"head_meta":126,"extra_data":128,"updated_unix":130},105,"en","how-soft-a-landing-the-pause-that-refreshes-capital-spending-is-the-boom-over","How Soft a Landing? - The Pause That Refreshes - Capital Spending: Is the Boom Over?","","A fall 1989 roundtable of nearly 30 economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland assesses where the U.S. economy is headed after the post-recession expansion. The consensus expects cooling-off and slower output growth into 1990, with some moderation in inflation, an end to the capital spending boom, and uneven movement in the dollar and trade deficit. Industry reports highlight softer manufacturing investment, easing capacity utilization, cautious inventories, and comparatively resilient services growth that sustains “stagflation.”",{"@graph":69,"@context":123},[70,84,106],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/how-soft-a-landing-the-pause-that-refreshes-capital-spending-is-the-boom-over/324743/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/how-soft-a-landing-the-pause-that-refreshes-capital-spending-is-the-boom-over/324743.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Miles","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-27","2026-09-21",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":105},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",11,{"@type":107,"mainEntity":108},"FAQPage",[109,115,119],{"name":110,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":112},"What overall economic outlook did the 1989 economists’ roundtable reach?","Question",{"text":113,"@type":114},"Most economists agreed the economy was in a cooling-off period relative to 1987–1988, expecting slower output growth into 1990 with a possible pickup late in 1990 into 1991.","Answer",{"name":116,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":117},"How did economists view inflation compared with growth?",{"text":118,"@type":114},"Inflation was expected to continue but with some moderation, while price increases in services remained stronger even as manufacturing prices flattened or declined.",{"name":120,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":121},"What changes were reported in manufacturing and capital spending?",{"text":122,"@type":114},"Manufacturing representatives described softening capital spending, high but easing capacity utilization, scattered layoffs, cautious inventory management, sluggish construction, and little or no manufacturing output growth since spring.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":125,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":127,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":129,"site_id":62},324743,1790127852,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":132},{"doc_id":129,"user_id":133,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":105,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":24,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":144,"read_time":145,"preview_page_count":4},13056703019404,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_29158cc5080c5b710cf443261637dec0","# How Soft a Landing?\n\nby Paul J.Nickels and  \nJohn J.Erceg  \nLf the economic expansion that hasgraced the U.S.economy since the con-clusion of the recession of 1981-1982were a party,the band is now on a breakand refreshments are running a little low.No one is certain about what might hap-pen after the break,but the band justmay be saving its best material for thenextset,and most feel that things willpick up rather nicely later in the evening—in the case of the economy,late in1990,heading into 1991.  \nThis scenario roughly conveys the com-bined perspective of a group of nearly30 economists who gathered at the Fed-eral Reserve Bank of Cleveland on Oc-tober 20 for the fall 1989 version of theBank's periodic Fourth District Econ-omists'Roundtable.  \nThe group was a diverse one,repre-senting manufacturing,trade,and finan-cial industries.Its outlook calls for aslowdown in growth heading into1990,concentrated in the manufactur-ing sector;continued slow growth inreal GNP;continued,though slightlymoderating inflation in the range of 4to 4k percent,led by price increasesin the services sector;and an apparentend to the capital spending boom.  \nAdditionally,according to some of theparticipants,an end to the improvementin the trade deficit is in store,the valueof the dollar in foreign exchangemarkets willlikely move irregularlydownward for the next few years,andpressure will grow on the Federal  \nReserve to gradually shif away from itsstated goal of price stability toward sus-taining the expansion.  \n# ■ The Pause That Refreshes\n\nNearly all assembled were in agreementthat the economy,relative to the rapidpace of 1987 and 1988,is clearly in acooling-off period.Generally,most ofthe Roundtable economists predictedslow growth in output for the remainderof 1989 and through the second quarterof 1990,with a pickup beginning late in1990 and carrying into 1991(see figure  \n1).Although fewer expected a recessionto occur than at the Roundtable meetingheld in June,the range of forecasts waswider,and the group believed that themargin for error had shifted toward thepossibility of a weaker-than-expectedexpansion.  \nRepresentatives from the manufactur-ing industries—automotive,heavyequipment,and electronics—invariablyreported softening in capital spending,high but easing capacity utilizationrates,scattered layoffs,and cautiousmanagement of inventories.Manufac-turing output has shown little or nogrowth at all since last spring,manufac-turing employment has been declining,and construction is sluggish.  \nOne auto economist noted that the autoindustry is generally gearing up for aperiod of declining sales in the 1990sThe industry itself is paying very closeattention to inventories,as are its sup-plying industries,particularly steel.He  \nNovember 15,1989  \nWhile nearly everyone in attendanceat a recent Fourth District Econo-mists'Roundtable agreed that theeconomy is in a cooling-off periodthat should last well into 1990,fewpredicted a recession.There was lessagreement on the “livability”of thecurrent rate of inflation,however.  \nnoted that auto sales incentives“...willbe around forever,\"stating that thevarious incentive programs in placeduring 1989 were responsible for asmany as 800,000 units of total industrysales,after contributing 500,000 unitsin both 1988 and 1987.The incentivesare not,however,leading to a particu-larly noticeable net increase in floortraffic or sales closures;rather,theyseem to have become expected by con-sumers,who merely wait for the incen-tives before making their purchase.  \nOne factor in the automotive marketleading to a slightly optimistic long-runoutlook is the relatively high age of thecar fleet.Demand is expected to pickup when those who have finallyachieved some equity after paying offmost of the now-standard five-yearloans begin to trade in for new cars  \nThe auto economist warned that thecompetition is going to remain fierce.There are now no less than 38 carmanufacturers competing in the world  \nmarket,capacity is incredibly","cbCail1R0OHQwWKA","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCail1R0OHQwWKA","pdf",1097287,"English","# How Soft a Landing?\n# The Pause That Refreshes\n## Capital Spending: Is the Boom Over?","[{\"question\":\"What overall economic outlook did the 1989 economists’ roundtable reach?\",\"answer\":\"Most economists agreed the economy was in a cooling-off period relative to 1987–1988, expecting slower output growth into 1990 with a possible pickup late in 1990 into 1991.\"},{\"question\":\"How did economists view inflation compared with growth?\",\"answer\":\"Inflation was expected to continue but with some moderation, while price increases in services remained stronger even as manufacturing prices flattened or declined.\"},{\"question\":\"What changes were reported in manufacturing and capital spending?\",\"answer\":\"Manufacturing representatives described softening capital spending, high but easing capacity utilization, scattered layoffs, cautious inventory management, sluggish construction, and little or no manufacturing output growth since spring.\"}]","How Soft a Landing? - The Pause That Refreshes - Capital Spending: Is the Boom Over? | PDF",1789968757,13]