[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-321790-105":59,"doc-detail-321790-en":129},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":122,"head_meta":124,"extra_data":126,"updated_unix":128},105,"en","how-credible-are-capital-spending-surveys-as-forecasts","How Credible are Capital Spending Surveys as Forecasts?","","This Economic Commentary by Gerald H. Anderson and John J. Erceg evaluates the reliability and forecasting usefulness of the U.S. Department of Commerce’s capital spending survey. It reviews how the survey is collected across multiple quarterly rounds, what is reported in nominal and real terms, and how data are adjusted for biases. It then compares forecast errors against alternative methods, focusing on annual changes and the generally weaker accuracy of quarterly projections.",{"@graph":69,"@context":121},[70,84,104],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/how-credible-are-capital-spending-surveys-as-forecasts/321790/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":98,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":99,"interactionStatistic":100},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/how-credible-are-capital-spending-surveys-as-forecasts/321790.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Maeve","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-09-21",true,{"@type":101,"interactionType":102,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":103},"ViewAction",{"@type":105,"mainEntity":106},"FAQPage",[107,113,117],{"name":108,"@type":109,"acceptedAnswer":110},"How is the Commerce Department capital spending survey conducted across the year?","Question",{"text":111,"@type":112},"The survey is initiated for a year in late autumn, then repeated in subsequent rounds through the spring and summer, with each round updating actual and anticipated expenditures. It also reports planned expenditures early for first and second quarters and later for the full year.","Answer",{"name":114,"@type":109,"acceptedAnswer":115},"Why can the survey’s quarterly projections be less accurate than other forecasts?",{"text":116,"@type":112},"Quarterly spending estimates depend on firm decisions and conditions that can change, including board appropriations, financing availability, and delivery timing from capital goods vendors. These factors can cause spending timing to diverge from initial plans.",{"name":118,"@type":109,"acceptedAnswer":119},"What does the commentary use to assess the survey’s reliability?",{"text":120,"@type":112},"It compares differences between the initial survey’s indicated percent change in spending and the actual change, showing an improved record by the third survey, and uses tabulated absolute errors alongside alternative forecasts for benchmarking.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":123,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":125,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":127,"site_id":62},321790,1789960260,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":130},{"doc_id":127,"user_id":131,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":132,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":133,"file_id":134,"file_url":135,"file_type":136,"file_size":137,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":34,"language":138,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":139,"faqs":140,"seo_title":141,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":128,"read_time":142},5909877438554,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/5600025385ad2bf12a7?_k=1778553567797529272","by Gerald H.Anderson andJohn J.Erceg  \napital spending is one of the mostvolatile sectors of the U.S.economy,typically accounting for one of the largestshares of the variation in GNP.Businessanalysts,who often use capital spendingsurveys to generate fixed-investmentforecasts,commonly rely on the oneprepared by the U.S.Department of Com-merce.That survey's July-August datashow that businesses plan to increasetheir capital spending in 1990 by 5.4 per-cent from last year's level,implying thatthis sector of the economy will likely con-tribute only half as much to the growthrate of GNP this year as it did in 1989.  \nHow reliable are these results?ThisEconomic Commentary evaluates notonly the accuracy of the CommerceDepartment's capital spending survey,but its usefulness in forecasting busi-ness investment.  \n■ The Commerce DepartmentSurveys:An Overview  \nIn addition to being one of the mostwidely used capital spending surveys,the Commerce Department survey isalso one of the oldest.²Initiated in1947,it reports actual and anticipatedU.S.plant and equipment (P&E)expen-ditures five times for a given year.Sur-veys are taken quarterly,and about  \n5,000 businesses generally respond.³The survey's coverage(that is,the  \n# How Credible are Capital SpendingSurveys as Forecasts?\n\nproportion of an industry's output repre-sented by the firms surveyed)varieswidely,ranging from99 percent for non-ferrous metals manufacturing to 12 per-cent for personal and business services  \nThe initial survey for a particular year,taken in October and November andpublished in December of the precedingyear,includes planned expenditures forthe first and second quarters and alsofor the full year.Second-half projec-tions are easily derived by subtractingfirst-half spending from the annual dataThe figures are then revised by a surveytaken in January and February and pub-lished in April.However,it is not untilresults are in from a third survey,takenin April and May and published in June,hat spending predictions for each of thefour quarters are published.Surveystaken in July and August (published inSeptember)and in October and Novem-ber(published in December)updateboth actual and anticipated expendituresfor the year.  \nActual and planned expenditures arereported to the Commerce Departmentin nominal dollars.The planned figureis only the survey respondent's bestestimate of what course a firm's futureP&E spending will takeActual spend-ing,however,can deviate from the ini-tial estimates for various reasons.For  \nDecember 1,1990  \nBusiness analysts should be awarethat the survey of capital spendingplans published by the U.S.Depart-ment of Commerce has severa limita-tions as a forecast of quarterly andannual fixed investment.Althoughthe annual expectations are relativelyreliable,the quarterly spendingprojections are often less accuratethan other inexpensive and equallyaccessible forecasts.This EconomicCommentary compares the reliabilityof the Commerce Department surveywith that of several alternative fore-casts,and suggests some underlyingreasons for the discrepancies betweenthe survey's projections and actualcapital expenditures.  \nexample,a firm's board of directorsmight appropriate a different amount oralter its previous appropriation becauseof a change in business conditions or incapital stock needs.Variations can alsoresult from a company's inability toarrange financing,or because the termsof financing are not as expected.Fur-thermore,the timing of expenditures isdependent upon the ability of the capi-tal goods vendor to deliver on schedule.  \nIn addition to publishing the data in nom-inal dollars,the Commerce Departmentalso reports real anticipated expenditures,which it calculates using implicit pricedeflators extrapolated from actual pricechanges over the latest four-quarter pe-riod.Survey data are also adjusted forreporting biases;that is,for consistentdifferences between some companies'reports of planned and actual spending.Quarterly levels are published in sea-sonal","cbCaiazwx0ghGGz3","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiazwx0ghGGz3","pdf",1395037,"English","# The Core Question: Forecasting Reliability\n## The Commerce Department Surveys: An Overview\n## Anticipating Annual Changes\n## Measuring Forecast Errors Against Alternatives","[{\"question\":\"How is the Commerce Department capital spending survey conducted across the year?\",\"answer\":\"The survey is initiated for a year in late autumn, then repeated in subsequent rounds through the spring and summer, with each round updating actual and anticipated expenditures. It also reports planned expenditures early for first and second quarters and later for the full year.\"},{\"question\":\"Why can the survey’s quarterly projections be less accurate than other forecasts?\",\"answer\":\"Quarterly spending estimates depend on firm decisions and conditions that can change, including board appropriations, financing availability, and delivery timing from capital goods vendors. These factors can cause spending timing to diverge from initial plans.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the commentary use to assess the survey’s reliability?\",\"answer\":\"It compares differences between the initial survey’s indicated percent change in spending and the actual change, showing an improved record by the third survey, and uses tabulated absolute errors alongside alternative forecasts for benchmarking.\"}]","How Credible are Capital Spending Surveys as Forecasts? | PDF",18]