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With China viewing isolation and loss of economic leverage as acute threats, the risk of a forceful move grows. India is urged to prepare a coordinated national response to protect its interests.",{"@graph":14,"@context":73},[15,34,56],{"@type":16,"itemListElement":17},"BreadcrumbList",[18,23,27,31],{"item":19,"name":20,"@type":21,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",1,{"item":24,"name":25,"@type":21,"position":26},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":28,"name":29,"@type":21,"position":30},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/","Research & 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driving the rising risk of China annexing Taiwan before 2030?","Question",{"text":63,"@type":64},"The document points to intensified military activities near Taiwan, economic slowdown, mounting domestic pressures, Xi Jinping’s authoritarian trajectory, and shifting global power dynamics that narrow the window for decisive action.","Answer",{"name":66,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":67},"What military actions does the document cite to show escalation near Taiwan?",{"text":68,"@type":64},"It describes PLA joint operations and live-fire drills in 2024–2025, including exercises framed as warnings and simulations of a blockade and interdiction to pressure Taiwan and deter external support.",{"name":70,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":71},"How does US involvement affect the likelihood of conflict discussed in the document?",{"text":72,"@type":64},"The document says US engagement has increased through naval activity in the Taiwan Strait, higher-profile cooperation and visits, and efforts to bolster 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before 2030 is growing, driven by intensified military activities, economic slowdown, mounting domestic pressures, Xi Jinping’s rising authoritarianism, and shifting global power dynamics. Weakening Western unity, declining global dependence on Taiwan, and increasing US-China tensions—exacerbated by Trump's return—create a narrowing window for decisive Chinese action. Xi’s paranoia, hyper-nationalism, and strategic recalibrations with regional powers further fuel the urgency. China’s perception of isolation and humiliation, coupled with its fear of losing economic leverage, raises the risk of a forceful move. Given these unfolding dynamics, India must proactively prepare a coordinated national response to safeguard its interests.  \nKeywords: Annexation of Taiwan, China-Taiwan war by 2030, Taiwan war, Taiwan capture  \nChina’s ambition to annex Taiwan has been a focal point of geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, rooted in decades of historical and political complexities. The divide dates back to 1949, when the Chinese Civil War ended with the Communist Party taking control of mainland China, while the defeated Nationalist government retreated to Taiwan. Since then, Beijing has considered Taiwan a breakaway province, despite the island functioning as a selfgoverned democracy with its own government, military and economy. Over the years, China has increased military manoeuvres, diplomatic pressure and economic coercion to assert its claim over Taiwan. Meanwhile, Taiwan, backed by growing international support, remains steadfast in its resistance. The question of how close China is to achieving this goal hinges on multiple factors, including military readiness, US intervention, China’s economic and social conditions, Taiwan’s defence capabilities and the broader global response. This article explores the current state of cross-strait relations and the likelihood of China taking decisive action to annex Taiwan, offering a critical lens on how mounting pressures could soon push Beijing towards a point of no return.  \nIB 433 | Col G Sunil Kumar  \nCurrent situation  \nTensions between China and Taiwan have escalated in recent years, driven by intensified military posturing, assertive political rhetoric and shifting global alliances. Heightened security manoeuvres and strategic realignments by regional and international players further amplify volatility in the region. This volatile environment underscores the growing risk of conflict and instability in the Taiwan Strait.  \nIntensified Military Activities  \nChina has significantly intensified its military activities near Taiwan over the past year, often timing its actions to major political events on the island. In May 2024, following the election of Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducted\"Joint Sword-2024A”, a large-scale joint operation involving land, sea, air and rocket forces around Taiwan and its outlying islands. This was followed in October 2024 by \"Joint Sword- 2024B”, simulating a blockade of Taiwan with operations spread across the Taiwan Strait and areas to the north, south and east of the island. In December 2024, coinciding with President Lai’s first overseas trip, the PLA launched further drills, highlighting a growing trend of responding to Taiwan’s political developments with military demonstrations.  \nThe pattern continued into 2025. In February, China conducted live-fire drills near Taiwan, widely perceived as direct threats to the island and its partners. Most recently, in April 2025, the PLA carried out another series of joint exercises in waters surrounding Taiwan, framing them as a\"severe warning\" against Taiwanese independence movements. Additionally, December 2024 saw the PLA’s largest naval deployment since the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, simulating a maritime blockade and interdiction of foreign s","cbCaiumG4z6qaVAn","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiumG4z6qaVAn","pdf",5517442,"English","# Current situation\n## Intensified Military Activities\n## Statements by Chinese and Taiwanese Officials\n## US Involvement in Taiwan\n## Implications for India","[{\"question\":\"What factors are driving the rising risk of China annexing Taiwan before 2030?\",\"answer\":\"The document points to intensified military activities near Taiwan, economic slowdown, mounting domestic pressures, Xi Jinping’s authoritarian trajectory, and shifting global power dynamics that narrow the window for decisive action.\"},{\"question\":\"What military actions does the document cite to show escalation near Taiwan?\",\"answer\":\"It describes PLA joint operations and live-fire drills in 2024–2025, including exercises framed as warnings and simulations of a blockade and interdiction to pressure Taiwan and deter external support.\"},{\"question\":\"How does US involvement affect the likelihood of conflict discussed in the document?\",\"answer\":\"The document says US engagement has increased through naval activity in the Taiwan Strait, higher-profile cooperation and visits, and efforts to bolster Taiwan’s defence capabilities, which shapes deterrence and escalation dynamics.\"}]","How Close Is China to Annexe Taiwan - Assessing the Risk of Annexation by 2030 | PDF",48]