[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110270-en":3,"doc-seo-110270-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110270,1649267921044,"Ava Thompson","https://us-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1800007509477c92dfb?_k=1782875107921204101",8,"Research & Report","Honduras - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Joint IMF/World Bank debt sustainability analysis for Honduras assesses risks to external and overall public debt. External debt distress risk is rated low, while the overall risk of public debt distress is moderate. Although no external debt burden indicators breach thresholds, the present value of public debt-to-GDP breaches the threshold under the most severe stress test. The outlook remains exposed to policy slippages and exogenous shocks, calling for prudent macro-fiscal policies and structural safeguards across debt management, monetary and FX frameworks, domestic debt markets, and the energy sector.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nOscar Calvo-Gonzalez and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Patricia Alonso-Gamo and Natalia Tamirisa (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| HONDURAS: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Tool not applicable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nHonduras’ risk of external debt distress is low, while the risk of overall public debt distress is moderate. 1 ,2 Honduras maintains a strong debt-carrying capacity and while none of the external debt burden indicators breach their respective thresholds, the PV of public debt-to-GDP ratio breaches its threshold under the most severe stress test scenario. Going forward, the authorities should remain committed to prudent policies, including by continuing to strike a sound balance between addressing Honduras’ social and investment needs and preserving fiscal and debt sustainability. Sustained efforts to develop the domestic debt market, improve debt management practices, enhance monetary and foreign exchange policy frameworks, and strengthen the energy sector are important safeguards to debt sustainability. The debt sustainability outlook remains vulnerable to policy slippages and risks of exogenous shocks, such as adverse weather events and a deterioration of the global outlook.  \n1 This DSA updates the previous joint IMF/WB DSA prepared in August 2021 in the context of Fourth Review under the StandBy Arrangement and Arrangement under the Standby Credit Facility (IMF Country Report No. 21/207) .  \n2 Honduras’s debt carrying capacity is assessed to be strong based on a composite indicator of 3.13 that uses the April 2023 WEO vintage and the 2021 World Bank CPIA.  \n1. The debt coverage of the public sector is comprehensive (Text Table 2) . The debt sustainability analysis (DSA) covers the non-financial public sector (NFPS), which includes the general government and non-financial state-owned enterprises (SOEs) . Debt from extrabudgetary trust funds is  \nalso included, with the authorities having abolished through legislation all trust funds in 2022.3 Debt from decentralized agencies such as public universities, public pension funds, and central bank borrowing on behalf of the government is also covered. In addition, the baseline 2022 debt stock includes 2.6 percent of GDP in domestic debt that was previously unaccounted for (Text Table 1), of which (i) 0.3 percent of GDP relates to central government arrears to domestic suppliers; (ii) 1.1 percent of GDP consists of trust funds’ debt liabilities,4 and (iii) 1.2 percent of  \n|  | Lempiras\u003Cbr>(million) | % GDP |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Domestic Debt | 20,500 | 2.6 |\n| Central government | 2,165 | 0.3 |\n| Trust funds | 8,547 | 1.1 |\n| ENEE | 9,788 | 1.2 |\n\nSource: Country authorities; and IMF staff calculations.  \nGDP pertains to arrears to private electricity generators accumulated by the state electricity utility Empresa Nacional de Energía Eléctrica (ENEE) owing to continued liquidity shortages given ongoing losses and impacts by the pandemic and the 2020 tropical storms.5 External debt is defined on a currency basis.6  \n2. The contingent liability tailored stress test is calibrated to account for public sector debt coverage gaps and risks from contingent liabilities (Text Table 2) . First, the default shock of 0 percent of GDP for other entities of the general government is kept unchanged as these are already captured in the coverage of public debt. Second, the default shock of 2 percent of GDP for SOE debt and governmentguaranteed private debt is maintained to reflect risks from lawsuits linked to a highway concession project (0 .4 percent of GDP) and the electricity utility (1 .5 percent of GDP) and to capture the publicly-guaranteed external de","cbCaihQZdBmjR80E","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaihQZdBmjR80E","pdf",758482,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Debt distress risk ratings\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall public debt distress risk\n# Debt outlook and key vulnerabilities\n## Stress test breach and assumptions\n## Policy and shock risks\n# Debt coverage and stress testing methodology\n## Public sector coverage scope\n## Contingent liability stress test calibration\n# Safeguards and policy recommendations\n## Debt market and management improvements\n## Monetary and foreign exchange frameworks\n## Energy sector strengthening","[{\"question\":\"What is the assessed risk of Honduras’ external debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The risk of external debt distress is rated low.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the analysis still indicate vulnerability despite no external threshold breaches?\",\"answer\":\"No external debt burden indicators breach thresholds, but the present value of the public debt-to-GDP ratio breaches its threshold under the most severe stress test scenario.\"},{\"question\":\"What main factors keep the debt sustainability outlook vulnerable?\",\"answer\":\"The outlook remains vulnerable to policy slippages and exogenous shocks, including adverse weather events and deterioration in the global outlook.\"}]",1784484662,48,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"honduras-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/honduras-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/110270/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is the assessed risk of Honduras’ external debt distress?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The risk of external debt distress is rated low.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Why does the analysis still indicate vulnerability despite no external threshold breaches?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"No external debt burden indicators breach thresholds, but the present value of the public debt-to-GDP ratio breaches its threshold under the most severe stress test scenario.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What main factors keep the debt sustainability outlook vulnerable?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The outlook remains vulnerable to policy slippages and exogenous shocks, including adverse weather events and deterioration in the global outlook.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":135,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":136},"General","general"]