[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-40322-en":3,"doc-seo-40322-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":11,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},40322,2336464648322,"Aria","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/2200025388227c56fec?_k=1778556882303663488",8,"Research & Report","Hawking The Future of Quantum Cosmology","Lecture transcript describing a framework for quantum cosmology grounded in M theory, integrating the no-boundary proposal and arguing for the essential role of the Anthropic Principle to select a universe solution from a large space of possibilities. It reviews why cosmology needs predictive power beyond reconstructing the present and reversing equations. The discussion links singularity theorems to a quantum origin, outlines quantum cosmology’s three components (local theory, boundary conditions, anthropic selection), and surveys candidate boundary conditions such as pre–big bang and tunneling.","The Future of Quantum Cosmology  \nS􀀀W􀀀 Hawking􀀀  \nDepartment of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics􀀁 University of Cambridge􀀁  \nSilver Street􀀁 Cambridge CB􀀂 􀀃EW􀀁  \nUnited Kingdom􀀀 August 􀀄􀀃􀀃􀀃  \nAbstract  \nThis is a transcript of a lecture given by Professor S􀀀 W􀀀 Hawking for the NATO ASI conference􀀀 Professor Hawking is the Lucasian Professor at the University of Cambridge􀀁 England􀀀  \nIn this lecture􀀀 I will describe what I see as the frame work for quantum cosmology􀀀 on the basis of M theory􀀁 I shall adopt the no boundary proposal and shall argue that the Anthropic Principle is essential􀀀 if one is to pick out a solution to represent our universe from the whole zoo of solutions allowed by M theory􀀁  \nCosmology used to be regarded as a pseudo science􀀀 an area where wild speculation was uncon􀀂 strained by any reliable observations􀀁 We now have lots and lots of observational data􀀀 and a generally agreed picture of how the universe is evolving􀀁  \nBut cosmology is still not a proper science􀀀 in the sense that􀀀 as usually practiced􀀀 it has no predictive power􀀁 Our observations tell us the present state of the universe􀀀 and we can run the equations backward to calculate what the universe was like at earlier times􀀁 But all that tells us is that the universe is as it is now because it was as it was then􀀁 To go further􀀀 and be a real science􀀀 cosmology would have to predict how the universe should be􀀁 We could then test its predictions against observation􀀀 like in any other science􀀁  \nThe task of making predictions in cosmology􀀀 is made more di􀀃cult by the singularity theorems that Roger Penrose and I proved􀀁  \nThe Universe must have had a beginning if  \n􀀄􀀁 Einstein􀀅s General Theory of Relativity is correct  \n􀀆􀀁 The energy density is positive 􀀇􀀁 The universe contains the ammount of matter we observe  \n􀀈􀀄􀀉  \nThese showed that if General Relativity were correct􀀀 the universe would have begun with a sin􀀂 gularity􀀁 Of course􀀀 we would expect classical General Relativity to break down near a singularity􀀀 when quantum gravitational e􀀊ects have to be taken into account􀀁 So what the singularity theorems  \n􀀀 email􀀀 S􀀁W􀀁Hawking􀀂damtp􀀁cam􀀁ac􀀁uk  \n􀀄  \nare really telling us is that the universe had a quantum origin􀀀 and that we need a theory of quantum cosmology􀀀 if we are to predict the present state of the universe􀀁  \nA theory of quantum cosmology􀀀 has three aspects􀀁  \nQuantum Cosmology  \n􀀄􀀁 Local theory 􀀂 M Theory  \n􀀆􀀁 Boundary conditions 􀀂 No boundary proposal  \n􀀇􀀁 Anthropic principle  \n􀀈􀀆􀀉  \nThe 􀀋rst is the local theory that the 􀀋elds in spacetime obey􀀁 The second is the boundary conditions for the 􀀋elds􀀁 I shall argue that the anthropic principle is an essential third element􀀁  \nAs far as the local theory is concerned the best􀀀 and indeed the only􀀀 consistent way we know to describe gravitational forces is curved spacetime􀀁 The theory has to incorporate super symmetry􀀀 because otherwise the uncanceled vacuum energies of all the modes would curl spacetime into a tiny ball􀀁 These two requirements seemed to point to supergravity theories􀀀 at least until 􀀄􀀌􀀍􀀎􀀁 But then the fashion changed suddenly􀀁 People declared that supergravity was only a low energy e􀀊ective theory􀀀 because the higher loops probably diverged􀀀 though no one was brave 􀀈or fool􀀂hardy􀀉 enough to calculate an eight loop diagram􀀁 Instead􀀀 the fundamental theory was claimed to be super strings􀀀 which were thought to be 􀀋nite to all loops􀀁 But it was discovered that strings were just one member of a wider class of extended objects􀀀 called p􀀂branes􀀁 It seems natural to adopt the principle of p􀀂brane democracy􀀁  \nP􀀀brane democracy  \nWe hold these truths as self evident􀀏  \nAll P􀀂branes are created equal  \n􀀈􀀇􀀉  \nAll p􀀂branes are created equal􀀁 Yet for p 􀀀 􀀄􀀀 the quantum theory of p􀀂branes diverges for higher loops􀀁  \nI think we should interpret these loop divergences not as a break down of the supergravity theories􀀀 but as a break down of naive perturbation theory􀀁 In gauge theor","cbCaih09Vz9qyDTd","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaih09Vz9qyDTd","pdf",231451,1,13,"English","en",105,"# Quantum cosmology and the need for prediction\n## Limits of classical cosmology\n# Quantum origin and singularity theorems\n## Beginning of the universe under general relativity\n# Three aspects of quantum cosmology\n## Local theory (M theory)\n## Boundary conditions\n### Pre–big bang scenario\n### Tunneling hypothesis\n### No-boundary proposal","[{\"question\":\"Why does the lecture say cosmology is not yet a proper science?\",\"answer\":\"Because standard cosmology mainly reconstructs the universe’s past state from present observations by running equations backward, rather than producing testable predictions about how the universe should be.\"},{\"question\":\"What argument connects classical general relativity to a quantum origin of the universe?\",\"answer\":\"Singularity theorems imply that if general relativity is correct under the stated assumptions, the universe must begin with a singularity, where classical theory is expected to fail and quantum effects become necessary.\"},{\"question\":\"What are the three aspects of quantum cosmology presented in the lecture?\",\"answer\":\"A local theory for spacetime fields (taken via M theory), boundary conditions for those fields (including discussion of candidates), and an anthropic principle as an essential element to select the solution representing our universe.\"}]",1783310364,33,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"hawking-the-future-of-quantum-cosmology","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/hawking-the-future-of-quantum-cosmology/40322/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-06",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":11},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"Why does the lecture say cosmology is not yet a proper science?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Because standard cosmology mainly reconstructs the universe’s past state from present observations by running equations backward, rather than producing testable predictions about how the universe should be.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What argument connects classical general relativity to a quantum origin of the universe?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Singularity theorems imply that if general relativity is correct under the stated assumptions, the universe must begin with a singularity, where classical theory is expected to fail and quantum effects become necessary.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What are the three aspects of quantum cosmology presented in the lecture?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"A local theory for spacetime fields (taken via M theory), boundary conditions for those fields (including discussion of candidates), and an anthropic principle as an 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