[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111889-en":3,"doc-seo-111889-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111889,13056703019662,"Evangeline","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/be000253a8e92610077?_k=1778726343310543188",8,"Research & Report","Haiti - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Risk Assessment","Joint World Bank and IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis for Haiti concludes a high risk of external debt distress and a high overall risk of debt distress, despite overall public debt being assessed as sustainable. The high external risk is driven by baseline exports-related external debt indicators breaching their indicative thresholds, with additional judgment due to ongoing security-driven narrowing of the production and export base. The overall risk reflects a steady upward public debt service-to-revenue ratio, counterbalanced by low debt levels and structural reforms under the SMP baseline, while major downside risks remain, including potential downgrades in debt carrying capacity and vulnerabilities in data, governance, and natural hazard exposure.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez (IDA) and Patricia Alonso-Gamo and Peter Dohlman (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| HAITI: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High 1 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Debt is sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes: High probability of protracted threshold breaches on external debt over a 20-year horizon from FY2037 and important risks and\u003Cbr>vulnerabilities to debt outlook. |\n\nThis DSA updates the analysis conducted at the time of the Request for a Disbursement under the Food Shock Window of the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) approved in January 2023, with the overall assessment largely unchanged. Haiti’s risk of debt distress is assessed as “high” and overall public debt remains sustainable despite the debt relief received from Venezuela which has improved key debt indicators significantly. The high risk of external debt distress rating arises from the fact that both exports-related external debt indicators breach their respective indicative threshold under the baseline scenario. Although the breaches occur beyond the 10-year projection period, judgement is applied and the risk of debt distress is deemed high due to the continued narrowing of Haiti's production and export base, accelerated by the ongoing security crisis. The high risk of overall debt distress rating arises from the fact steady-upward trend of public debt service-to-revenue ratio. Nevertheless, the now low level of public debt and the implementation of some structural reforms to boost growth under the SMP baseline scenario, point to a sustainable public debt. The outlook remains however subject to major downside risks, including a potential downgrade in Haiti debt carrying capacity due to deteriorating  \n1 The current Composite Index (CI) is estimated at 2.642 and is based on the World Bank’s 2023 CPIA and the October 2023 WEO. Haiti’s debt-carrying capacity remains “medium” as in the previous DSA.  \nfundamentals, and as Haiti continues to face serious economic, policy, and institutional fragilities—including governance vulnerabilities, brain drain and, specifically with regard to debt management, persisting debt data limitations—as well as heightened exposure to natural hazards and climate change. The sustainability of overall debt hinges on the ability of the authorities to secure donor financing in the short to medium term.  \n1. Coverage. Gross public debt used for this DSA covers the central government, local governments, extrabudgetary autonomous organisms, the state-owned electricity company Electricité d’Haiti (EDH), and advances by the central bank—Banque de la République d’Haiti (BRH) to the government (Text Table 1) . External debt data come from the BRH and include debt to multilateral and bilateral creditors, including foreign oil companies, as well as an estimate of contingent liabilities. External debt is defined on a residency basis. No data are available on guaranteed debt, including to other stateowned enterprises (SOEs), and non-guaranteed SOE debt.  \n\n|  |  |  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  |  |  |  |  |\n| 1 | The country's coverage of public debt The general government |  |  |  |  |\n|  |  | Default | Used for the analysis | Reasons for deviations from the default settings |  |\n| 2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5 | Other elements of the general government not captured in 1. 1/ 0 percent of GDP 0.3\u003Cbr>SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government) 2/ 2 percent of GDP 2\u003Cbr>Public Private Partnership (PPP) 35 percent of PPP stock 0\u003Cbr>Financial market (the default value of 5 percent of GDP is the minimum value) 5 percent of GDP 5\u003Cbr>Total (2+3+4+5) (in percent of GDP) 7.3 |  |  |  |  |\n|  |  |  |  |  |  |\n| 1/ Inc","cbCainUNfC4Cqnul","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCainUNfC4Cqnul","pdf",723708,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Executive Assessment\n## Risk ratings and judgment application\n## Key drivers: exports, debt service, reforms\n# Coverage and data considerations\n## Gross public debt coverage\n## External debt definitions and limitations\n# Policy actions supporting sustainability\n## Debt coverage expansion and transparency measures\n## Limits on non-concessional borrowing\n## Fiscal and customs-related reforms","[{\"question\":\"What are the headline debt distress risk ratings for Haiti?\",\"answer\":\"Haiti’s risk of external debt distress is assessed as “high,” and the overall risk of debt distress is also “high.” Despite this, overall public debt is assessed as sustainable.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is the external debt distress risk rated high under the baseline scenario?\",\"answer\":\"Exports-related external debt indicators breach their indicative thresholds in the baseline scenario. The breaches occur after the 10-year projection period, but judgment is applied due to continued narrowing of Haiti’s production and export base linked to the security crisis.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors support the view that Haiti’s overall public debt remains sustainable?\",\"answer\":\"Low current public debt levels and some structural reforms under the SMP baseline support sustainability. However, the outlook remains sensitive to major downside risks such as potential downgrades in debt carrying capacity and governance, data, and natural hazard vulnerabilities.\"}]",1784492168,55,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"haiti-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/haiti-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-assessment/111889/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What are the headline debt distress risk ratings for Haiti?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Haiti’s risk of external debt distress is assessed as “high,” and the overall risk of debt distress is also “high.” Despite this, overall public debt is assessed as sustainable.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why is the external debt distress risk rated high under the baseline scenario?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Exports-related external debt indicators breach their indicative thresholds in the baseline scenario. The breaches occur after the 10-year projection period, but judgment is applied due to continued narrowing of Haiti’s production and export base linked to the security crisis.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What factors support the view that Haiti’s overall public debt remains sustainable?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Low current public debt levels and some structural reforms under the SMP baseline support sustainability. However, the outlook remains sensitive to major downside risks such as potential downgrades in debt carrying capacity and governance, data, and natural hazard vulnerabilities.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]