[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109917-en":3,"doc-seo-109917-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109917,1374391974564,"Clementine","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/14000253aa45c000a9e?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779874745381141002",8,"Research & Report","Haiti - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020","Joint World Bank and IMF debt sustainability analysis for Haiti evaluates the risk of external and overall public debt. The overall risk of debt distress and the external debt distress risk are assessed as “high,” driven by a high probability of threshold breaches from FY2033 under the baseline scenario. Despite this, the model-based ratings for both external and public debt are “moderate,” with judgment applied to reflect institutional fragilities and exceptional vulnerability to natural disasters.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nHAITI  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nApril 2020  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Patricia Alonso-Gamo, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| Haiti: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Debt is sustainable in the medium-term . Long-term sustainability will require fiscal consolidation, including through higher domestic revenue mobilization . |\n| Application of judgment | Yes: High probability of protracted and substantial threshold breaches from FY2033 . |\n| Macroeconomic projections | Compared to the December 2019 DSA, growth in the short-term has been revised down and inflation revised up. The projected fiscal deficit as a percent of GDP is 3.0, 0.8 and 0.9 percent higher respectively in FY2020, 2021-24, and 2025-35. The projected current account deficit is higher in the short term, but 0.5 percent of GDP smaller on average over 2025-35. |\n| Financing strategy | Future gross financing needs are assumed to be met both internally—by the rollover of central bank advances to the government—and externally. Remaining internal financing takes the form of short-term treasury bills held by commercial banks. External debt financing, contracted or guaranteed, is assumed to be mostly concessional. |\n| Realism tools flagged | The baseline assumptions are credible, and the projected fiscal adjustment is realistic. |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA | Moderate risk |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the public DSA | Moderate risk |\n\nThe Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) was prepared in accordance with the revised joint BankFund debt sustainability framework (DSF) for low-income countries (LICs) . 1 It updates the DSA prepared for the 2019 Article IV Consultation .2  \nHaiti’s risk of debt distress is assessed to be “high”, although the model-based risk rating for both external and overall public debt is “moderate.” An application ofjudgement was applied to change the rating from “moderate” to “high” because of the high probability of threshold breaches under the baseline scenario from FY2033, and by Haiti’s institutional fragilities and exceptional vulnerability to natural disasters. Haiti is an FCV country—a country affected by fragility, conflict, and violence as defined by the World Bank—and tailored stress tests suggest that its debt risk rating is very vulnerable to large natural disaster shocks which are statistically very frequent.  \nNevertheless, the moderate level of public debt and broadly stable debt trajectory over the next ten years point to sustainable public debt.  \n1 Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries, February 2018.  \n2 This DSA assumes that debt service to the IMF falling due in the 24 months from April 14, 2020 will be covered under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust Fund (CCRTF), subject to availability of resources and decisions of the Executive Board of the IMF.  \n\n| Figure 1. Haiti: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt under\u003Cbr>Alternatives Scenarios, 2020–40 |  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 60\u003Cbr>50\u003Cbr>40\u003Cbr>30\u003Cbr>20\u003Cbr>10\u003Cbr>0\u003Cbr>30\u003Cbr>25\u003Cbr>20\u003Cbr>15\u003Cbr>10\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>0 | PV of debt-to GDP ratio\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040\u003Cbr>Debt service-to-exports ratio\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 |  | 400\u003Cbr>350\u003Cbr>300\u003Cbr>250\u003Cbr>200\u003Cbr>150\u003Cbr>100\u003Cbr>50\u003Cbr>0\u003Cbr>30\u003Cbr>25\u003Cbr>20\u003Cbr>15\u003Cbr>10\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>0 | PV of debt-to-exports ratio\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Most extreme shock is Combination\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040\u003Cbr>Debt ","cbCainkIpj9jPk5N","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCainkIpj9jPk5N","pdf",459090,4,1,10,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall debt distress risk\n# Methodology and Judgment\n## Debt sustainability framework for LICs\n## Application of judgment\n# Macroeconomic Projections\n# Financing Strategy\n# Stress Tests and Shock Vulnerability\n## Tailored stress tests for natural disasters\n## Borrowing assumptions","[{\"question\":\"How is Haiti’s risk of debt distress assessed in the report?\",\"answer\":\"The report assesses Haiti’s risk of external debt distress as “high” and the overall risk of debt distress as “high.” This reflects the likelihood of threshold breaches from FY2033 and Haiti’s vulnerability factors.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the report use judgment to raise the risk rating from “moderate” to “high”?\",\"answer\":\"Although model-based ratings for external and overall public debt are “moderate,” judgment increases the rating to “high” due to a high probability of protracted and substantial threshold breaches from FY2033 and Haiti’s institutional fragilities and exposure to natural disasters.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the report assume about financing to meet future financing needs?\",\"answer\":\"Future gross financing needs are assumed to be met both internally—through rollover of central bank advances to the government—and externally, with remaining internal financing via short-term treasury bills held by commercial banks. External debt financing is assumed to be mostly concessional.\"}]","Haiti - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020 | PDF",1784483024,25,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"haiti-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/haiti-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020/109917/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-08-03","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"How is Haiti’s risk of debt distress assessed in the report?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The report assesses Haiti’s risk of external debt distress as “high” and the overall risk of debt distress as “high.” This reflects the likelihood of threshold breaches from FY2033 and Haiti’s vulnerability factors.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Why does the report use judgment to raise the risk rating from “moderate” to “high”?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"Although model-based ratings for external and overall public debt are “moderate,” judgment increases the rating to “high” due to a high probability of protracted and substantial threshold breaches from FY2033 and Haiti’s institutional fragilities and exposure to natural disasters.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"What does the report assume about financing to meet future financing needs?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Future gross financing needs are assumed to be met both internally—through rollover of central bank advances to the government—and externally, with remaining internal financing via short-term treasury bills held by commercial banks. External debt financing is assumed to be mostly concessional.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":134},"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]