[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111553-en":3,"doc-seo-111553-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111553,1099514068035,"Ezra","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","Guyana - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Low risk assessment","Guyana faces a low risk of overall and external debt distress, supported by a tailored judgment that reflects the transitional dynamics of expanding oil production. The external debt-to-GDP ratio increases through 2028 due to continued external borrowing, then returns to current levels by 2034 as borrowing shifts toward using assets accumulated in the Natural Resource Fund. Public debt declines after 2026 and stabilizes near 25 percent through 2034, with upside oil-related buffers noted.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez (IDA), and Ana Corbacho and Geremia Palomba (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) based on the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC-DSF), implemented since July 2018.  \n\n| GUYANA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low 1 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Low |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Tool not applicable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes. Application of customized stress scenario to account for transitional dynamics of expanding oil production. |\n\nGuyana is at a low risk of overall and external debt distress with application of judgement, improved from the 2023 Article IV debt sustainability analysis when it was assessed at a moderate risk of overall and external debt distress. The use of judgement is based on a customized scenario that accounts for the ongoing structural transformation of the economy since the start of oil production. The present value of the external debt-to-GDP ratio rises through 2028 reflecting continued external borrowing but falls to current levels by 2034 as external borrowing is replaced by using receipts from the growing stock of assets in the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) . Public debt starts to decline after 2026  \n1 The LIC-DSF is used to assess debt sustainability for Guyana given its eligibility for World Bank’s IDA financing and access to concessional financing terms. Guyana’s debt-carrying capacity (DCC) assessment is based on the value of the Composite Indicator (CI) of 2.53 estimated using the 2023 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) score and data from the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO), indicating a weak DCC. The latter, as discussed in this debt sustainability analysis, does not account for potentially beneficial factors specific to Guyana beyond the standard CI methodology, includingthe accumulation of large foreign exchange buffers in the NRF. Debt and debt service projections are based on staff’s macroeconomic update for the 2025 Article IV Consultation.  \nand stabilizes at about 25 percent through 2034. There are considerable upside risks from higher future oil production which will help build additional foreign exchange buffers.  \n1. The coverage of public sector debt is central government and central government guaranteed (PPG) debt, including state-owned enterprise (SOE) debt since SOEs are not allowed to borrow directly (Text Table 1) . External debt is defined based on the principle of residency. Between 2020 and 2024, central government domestic debt also included a central government-guaranteed five-year syndicated loan amounting to G$16 .5 billion (2 .1 percent of GDP) raised by the National Industrial and Commercial Investments Limited (NICIL) for the purpose of restructuring state-owned Guyana Sugar Corporation (GuySuCo), which has now been paid off. The central government does not issue explicit or implicit guarantees on sub-national and local government debts, and these are excluded from the debt sustainability analysis (DSA) . Borrowing by the Social Security Administration is included in this report’s coverage of debt. The authorities have indicated no public-private partnership debt (PPP) as of end-2024. Assets being accumulated in the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) are outside the perimeter of the DSA, but this has a considerable bearing on the assessment of risks of debt distress as discussed below.  \n\n|  |  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  | Subsectors of the public sector Check box |  |  |\n|  | 12345678 | \u003Cbr>Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SO","cbCaiifEpl0TV4Dl","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiifEpl0TV4Dl","pdf",706922,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment\n## External debt distress\n## Overall debt distress\n# Methodology and debt coverage\n## LIC-DSF and debt-carrying capacity\n## Public sector debt perimeter\n# Stress testing and contingencies\n## Contingent liability settings\n## PPP debt and guarantees\n# Debt projections and dynamics\n## External debt-to-GDP path\n## NRF receipts and public debt trends","[{\"question\":\"Why is Guyana assessed as low risk of debt distress overall and externally?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis concludes low risk for both overall and external debt distress, using a judgment-based approach informed by a customized stress scenario. This scenario accounts for structural economic transformation linked to expanding oil production.\"},{\"question\":\"How do external debt dynamics change over time in the projections?\",\"answer\":\"The present value of the external debt-to-GDP ratio rises through 2028, reflecting continued external borrowing. It then falls back to current levels by 2034 as external borrowing is replaced by receipts supported by the Natural Resource Fund asset stock.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the report include in its definition of public and external debt?\",\"answer\":\"The coverage focuses on central government and central government guaranteed (PPG) debt, including state-owned enterprise debt since SOEs cannot borrow directly. External debt is defined by the principle of residency, and certain local government debts are excluded.\"}]",1784490647,50,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"guyana-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-low-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/guyana-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-low-risk-assessment/111553/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"Why is Guyana assessed as low risk of debt distress overall and externally?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The analysis concludes low risk for both overall and external debt distress, using a judgment-based approach informed by a customized stress scenario. This scenario accounts for structural economic transformation linked to expanding oil production.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"How do external debt dynamics change over time in the projections?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The present value of the external debt-to-GDP ratio rises through 2028, reflecting continued external borrowing. It then falls back to current levels by 2034 as external borrowing is replaced by receipts supported by the Natural Resource Fund asset stock.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What does the report include in its definition of public and external debt?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The coverage focuses on central government and central government guaranteed (PPG) debt, including state-owned enterprise debt since SOEs cannot borrow directly. External debt is defined by the principle of residency, and certain local government debts are excluded.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,114,119,122,126,129,133],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":28,"slug":113},6,"Technology","technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":125},9,"Religion & Spirituality","religion-spirituality",{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":127,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":128},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":130,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":131,"show_sort_weight":130,"slug":132},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":134,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":135,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":136},19,"General","general"]