[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110414-en":3,"doc-seo-110414-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110414,4398048950312,"Violet","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/400002538284de19e3c?_k=1778320343897328908",8,"Research & Report","GUYANA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS - External and overall debt distress risk moderate","GUYANA remains at moderate risk of external debt distress and overall debt distress, consistent with the previous July 2019 DSA. Favorable upside risks stem from higher oil prices and continued discoveries that strengthen external buffers against shocks, while all external debt indicators stay below indicative vulnerability thresholds in the baseline scenario. Stress tests show vulnerability to export shocks and combined macroeconomic and exchange-rate shocks, potentially breaching external debt thresholds, though current low external debt provides room to absorb shocks.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nRobert R. Taliercio and Marcello Estevão (IDA); James Morsink and Geremia Palomba (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| GUYANA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate 1 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Substantial space to absorb shock |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe risk of external and overall debt distress for Guyana remains moderate (as in the previous DSA of July 2019) . There are significant favorable upside risks to the outlook for debt dynamics in the medium-to long-term given the latest projections of high oil prices and continuing discoveries of new oil fields, which will help Guyana build up significant external buffers against adverse shocks. All external debt indicators remain below the relevant indicative vulnerability thresholds under the baseline scenario, which incorporates the long-term effects of oil production.  \nStress tests illustrate the susceptibility of Guyana’s external public debt to shocks, and in particular to an export shock and to a combined shock scenario featuring simultaneous shocks to real GDP growth, primary balance, exports, other flows (current transfers and FDI), and nominal exchange rate depreciation, which could cause significant breaches in the external debt thresholds. Guyana has substantial space to absorb shocks, reflecting the current low level of external debt.  \n1Guyana uses the LIC-DSF due to its IDA status, despite its graduation from the PRGT in 2020. The debt-carrying capacity is classified as “weak” due to the value of the Composite Indicator (CI), (down from “medium” in the last DSA, due mostly to a sharp increase in oil-related imports) .  \n1. The coverage of public sector debt used in this report is central government debt and central government-guaranteed debt. In May 2018 the central government guaranteed a five-year syndicated loan amounting to G$16 .5 billion (2 .1 percent of GDP) raised by the National Industrial and Commercial Investments Limited (NICIL) 2 for the purpose of restructuring state-owned Guyana Sugar Corporation (GuySuCo) . The loan, which is also secured by NICIL’s assets, carries an interest rate of 4.75 percent. The government had undertaken the restructuring of GuySuCo following continued losses which resulted in heavy subsidies amounting to 1−2 percent of GDP per year during 2015−20 . Proceeds from the privatization of GuySuCo’s estates will be used to repay this loan. In December 2020 a decision was made to classify all outstanding liabilities from this loan as central government domestic debt since the government had been obliged to meet debt service obligations under this bond during the year. Central government debt also included borrowing from the Central Bank of Guyana (BOG) during 2015-2020, amounting to G$163 .3 billion (14 .3 percent of GDP) as of end-2020.3 However, in June 2021 the government securitized the inherited overdraft at the BOG using variable-rate debentures, with tenors ranging from 1 to 20 years, totaling G$200 billion (approximately US$960 million) . In addition, state-owned enterprises’ (SOEs) debts are included in central government debt as these entities are not allowed to borrow directly. The central government borrows and on-lends to the SOEs. The central government does not issue explicit or implicit guarantees on sub-nationals and local governments’ debts, which are not included in the DSA. External debt is defined based on residency basis.  \n2. The Government of Guyana has been working closely with the World bank on issues related to debt transparency and management in the context of Sustainable Development Finance Policy (SDFP) . This included increasing the periodicity and coverage of debt statistics and strengthening the ","cbCaivF34BJrM2bG","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaivF34BJrM2bG","pdf",636242,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Risk of debt distress assessment\n## Baseline risk rating and buffers\n## Stress test scenarios and thresholds\n## Debt coverage and country debt context","[{\"question\":\"What is Guyana’s assessed risk of external and overall debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Guyana’s risk of external debt distress and overall debt distress remains moderate, consistent with the July 2019 DSA.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the outlook include favorable upside risks?\",\"answer\":\"The outlook benefits from high oil prices and continuing discoveries of new oil fields, supporting the build-up of external buffers against adverse shocks.\"},{\"question\":\"Which shocks pose the greatest threat in the stress tests?\",\"answer\":\"An export shock and a combined scenario affecting real GDP growth, primary balance, exports, other flows, and nominal exchange-rate depreciation can cause significant breaches of external debt thresholds.\"}]",1784485320,53,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"guyana-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-and-overall-debt-distress-risk-moderate","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/guyana-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-and-overall-debt-distress-risk-moderate/110414/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is Guyana’s assessed risk of external and overall debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Guyana’s risk of external debt distress and overall debt distress remains moderate, consistent with the July 2019 DSA.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why does the outlook include favorable upside risks?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The outlook benefits from high oil prices and continuing discoveries of new oil fields, supporting the build-up of external buffers against adverse shocks.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Which shocks pose the greatest threat in the stress tests?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"An export shock and a combined scenario affecting real GDP growth, primary balance, exports, other flows, and nominal exchange-rate depreciation can cause significant breaches of external debt 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