[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111072-en":3,"doc-seo-111072-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111072,1099513958607,"Jiven","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/100002390cf8733938c?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1778829742770036399",8,"Research & Report","GUYANA - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","The joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis for Guyana finds moderate risk of external debt distress and moderate overall risk, consistent with the prior July 2022 assessment. The outlook benefits from upside risks tied to August 2023 WEO projections for moderately high oil prices and continued discoveries that can build external buffers. Under the baseline scenario, external debt indicators remain below indicative vulnerability thresholds, while debt-carrying capacity improves to “medium” due mainly to higher gross official reserves coverage of imports. Stress tests highlight vulnerability to export shocks, though Guyana has substantial space to absorb them.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nOscar Calvo-Gonzalez and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and James Morsink and Geremia Palomba (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| GUYANA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate 1 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Substantial space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe risk of external and overall debt distress for Guyana remains moderate (as in the previous DSA of July 2022) . There are significant upside risks to the outlook for debt dynamics in the medium-to long-term , given the August 2023 WEO forecast of moderately high oil prices (averaging $76 a barrel over 2023-28) and continuing discoveries of new oil fields, which will help Guyana build up significant external buffers against adverse shocks. All external debt indicators remain well below the relevant indicative vulnerability thresholds under the baseline scenario, which incorporates the long-term effects of oil production. Guyana’s debt-carrying capacity is now classified as “medium” based on the value of the Composite Indicator (CI), up from “weak” in the 2022 DSA, due mainly to an increase in gross official reserve coverage of imports.  \nStress tests illustrate the susceptibility of Guyana’s external public debt to shocks, and in particular to an export shock , which could cause significant breaches in the external debt thresholds. Guyana has substantial space to absorb shocks, reflecting the current low level of external debt and significant projected increases in oil revenues.  \n1 Low Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC-DSF) is used to assess debt sustainability for Guyana given its eligibility for World Bank’s IDA financing and access to concessional financing terms. Guyana’s debt-carrying capacity assessment is based on the value of the Composite Indicator (CI) , using the 2021 CPIA score (released in July 2022) and data and projections from the April 2023 WEO.  \n1. The coverage of public sector debt used in this report is central government debt and central government-guaranteed debt (Text Table 1) . External debt is defined based on residency basis and includes the external debt of the central government. Since December 2020 central government domestic debt also includes a central government-guaranteed five-year syndicated loan amounting to G$16 .5 billion (2 .1 percent of GDP) raised by the National Industrial and Commercial Investments Limited (NICIL) 2 for the purpose of restructuring state-owned Guyana Sugar Corporation (GuySuCo) . In addition, state-owned enterprises’ (SOEs) debts are included in central government debt as these entities are not allowed to borrow directly. The central government borrows and on-lends to the SOEs. The central government does not issue explicit or implicit guarantees on sub-nationals and local governments’ debts, which are not included in the DSA. Also included under central government domestic debt is borrowing by the Social Security Administration. Central government domestic debt also includes borrowing from the Central Bank of Guyana (BOG) during 2015-2020, amounting to G$163 .3 billion (14 .3 percent of GDP) as of end-2020.3 However, in June 2021 the government securitized the inherited overdraft at the BOG using variable-rate debentures, with tenors ranging from 1 to 20 years, totaling G$200 billion (approximately US$960 million) .  \n\n|  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  |  |  |\n|  |  | Subsectors of the public sector\u003Cbr>Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs)\u003Cbr>Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the govern","cbCaijxfBqv75Xuv","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaijxfBqv75Xuv","pdf",831987,1,23,"English","en",105,"# Risk of Debt Distress\n## External and overall risk rating\n## Granularity and judgment application\n# Debt-Capacity Assessment\n## Composite Indicator (CI) classification\n# Baseline Scenario and Upside Risks\n## Oil price projections and oil discoveries\n## Indicative vulnerability thresholds\n# Stress Tests and Shock Analysis\n## Export shock vulnerability\n## Space to absorb shocks\n# Coverage and Methodology Notes\n## Public sector debt definition\n## Contingent liabilities and PPP treatment","[{\"question\":\"What is Guyana’s assessed risk of external debt distress and overall debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates the risk of external debt distress as moderate and the overall risk of debt distress as moderate.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does Guyana’s debt-carrying capacity improve in this DSA?\",\"answer\":\"Debt-carrying capacity is classified as “medium” because the Composite Indicator value rises, driven mainly by increased gross official reserve coverage of imports compared with the prior weak assessment.\"},{\"question\":\"Which shock is most concerning in the stress tests, and what does it imply?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis shows particular susceptibility to an export shock, which could lead to significant breaches of external debt thresholds, even though there is substantial space to absorb shocks overall.\"}]",1784488439,58,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"guyana-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/guyana-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111072/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is Guyana’s assessed risk of external debt distress and overall debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The analysis rates the risk of external debt distress as moderate and the overall risk of debt distress as moderate.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why does Guyana’s debt-carrying capacity improve in this DSA?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Debt-carrying capacity is classified as “medium” because the Composite Indicator value rises, driven mainly by increased gross official reserve coverage of imports compared with the prior weak assessment.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Which shock is most concerning in the stress tests, and what does it imply?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The analysis shows particular susceptibility to an export shock, which could lead to significant breaches of external debt thresholds, even though there is substantial space to absorb shocks 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