[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109640-en":3,"doc-seo-109640-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109640,7971461740909,"Levi","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d",8,"Research & Report","Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis","Guinea’s external and overall risk of public debt distress is assessed as moderate, with limited room to absorb shocks. Under a baseline scenario incorporating the negative COVID-19 impact, external debt burden indicators remain below policy thresholds, but stress tests indicate worsening vulnerabilities under adverse shocks. In the most extreme cases, solvency and liquidity indicators breach thresholds for extended periods. The assessment also applies judgment to a brief, marginal breach of the PV of total public-debt-to-GDP over 2021–22, linked to COVID-19 financing needs, central bank recapitalization, and commitments on public investment envelopes for 2020–23.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nGUINEA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nDecember 2020  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA) and Celine Allard (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| Guinea: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis1 |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |  |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |  |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |  |\n| Application of judgment | Yes | The overall risk of debt distress is assessed to be moderate against a mechanical rating of high risk of debt distress. |\n\nGuinea is at moderate risk of external debt distress, with limited space to absorb shocks. All external debt burden indicators under the baseline scenario, which accounts for the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, lie below their policy-dependent thresholds. Stress tests suggest that debt vulnerabilities will increase if adverse shocks materialize. Under the most extreme stress tests, all solvency and liquidity indicators breach their thresholds for prolonged periods. The overall risk of public debt distress is also assessed to be moderate, with the application of judgement regarding a brief and marginal breach for the PV of total-public-debt-to-GDP ratio over 2021–22, reflecting additional borrowing in 2020 to meet urgent balance of payments and fiscal needs due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the one-off impact of the recapitalization of the central bank. This assessment hinges on commitments to moderate the increase in the envelope of public investment projects over 2020-23 with respect to the plans included in the March 2020 DSA at the time of the Fourth Review under the ECF arrangement. A prudent external borrowing strategy aimed at maximizing the concessionality of new debt, strengthening debt management and enhancing public investment management will be key to preserving medium-term debt sustainability.  \n1The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) was prepared with the World Bank and in collaboration with the Guinean authorities. This DSA has been prepared following the revised Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) for LICs and Guidance Note (2017) in effect as of July 1, 2018. Guinea’s debt carrying capacity is classified as weak based on the Composite Indicator (CI) under the revised LIC DSF. Thresholds for debt burden indicators are also those established in the revised 2017 DSF.  \nCOVERAGE OF PUBLIC DEBT  \n1. The definition of public debt used in this DSA covers central government debt, central government-guaranteed debt, and central bank debt contracted on behalf of the government (Table 1).2 Audited and validated arrears to suppliers over the period 1982–2013 as well as domestic arrears accumulated in 2017-18 and decumulated in 2019 have been included in the baseline, corresponding to a domestic arrears stock of about 1.5 percent of GDP at end-2019. While other elements of public sector debt, such as non-guaranteed debt of state-owned enterprises and social security funds, are not included due to data constraints, they are assessed as not relevant.3 A contingent liability stress test is performed to enhance the robustness ofthe DSA. Staff continues to work with the authorities to broaden the coverage of public debt and improve capacity to address debt data weaknesses. The definition of public and publicly guaranteed debt (PPG) used in the DSA includes the loan for the Souapiti dam (US$1.2 billion, about 10 percent of 2018 GDP) signed on September 4, 2018.4 To depict its potential full impact on the debt profile, the government is assumed to be responsible for servicing the loan in the DSA.5  \n\n| Table 1. Guinea: Coverage of Public Sector Debt and Design of the Contingent Liability Stress\u003Cbr>Test\u003Cbr>Subsectors of the public","cbCaibOPMkNWrWpl","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaibOPMkNWrWpl","pdf",458901,5,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment and Stress Test Findings\n## External Debt Distress Risk\n## Overall Public Debt Distress Risk\n## Role of Judgment and Key Assumptions\n# Coverage of Public Debt\n## Definition of Public Debt in the DSA\n## Included Arrears and Debt Elements\n## Contingent Liability Stress Test Design","[{\"question\":\"What is Guinea’s assessed risk of external debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Guinea is assessed to have a moderate risk of external debt distress, with limited space to absorb shocks.\"},{\"question\":\"How do stress tests affect the debt outlook under adverse shocks?\",\"answer\":\"Stress tests indicate that debt vulnerabilities rise if adverse shocks materialize, and under the most extreme scenarios solvency and liquidity indicators breach thresholds for prolonged periods.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is judgment applied to the public debt distress rating?\",\"answer\":\"Judgment is applied to a brief and marginal breach in the PV of total public-debt-to-GDP ratio over 2021–22, reflecting COVID-19-related borrowing needs and the one-off impact of central bank recapitalization, alongside commitments on public investment envelopes for 2020–23.\"}]","Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis | PDF",1784481688,50,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":88,"head_meta":90,"extra_data":92,"updated_unix":29},"guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis","",{"@graph":37,"@context":87},[38,55,70],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":54},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis/109640/",4,{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":56,"author":57,"headline":13,"publisher":59,"fileFormat":62,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":63,"datePublished":64,"encodingFormat":62,"isAccessibleForFree":65,"interactionStatistic":66},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":58},"Person",{"url":42,"name":60,"@type":61},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":67,"interactionType":68,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":69},"ViewAction",{"@type":71,"mainEntity":72},"FAQPage",[73,79,83],{"name":74,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":76},"What is Guinea’s assessed risk of external debt distress?","Question",{"text":77,"@type":78},"Guinea is assessed to have a moderate risk of external debt distress, with limited space to absorb shocks.","Answer",{"name":80,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":81},"How do stress tests affect the debt outlook under adverse shocks?",{"text":82,"@type":78},"Stress tests indicate that debt vulnerabilities rise if adverse shocks materialize, and under the most extreme scenarios solvency and liquidity indicators breach thresholds for prolonged periods.",{"name":84,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":85},"Why is judgment applied to the public debt distress rating?",{"text":86,"@type":78},"Judgment is applied to a brief and marginal breach in the PV of total public-debt-to-GDP ratio over 2021–22, reflecting COVID-19-related borrowing needs and the one-off impact of central bank recapitalization, alongside commitments on public investment envelopes for 2020–23.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":89,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":60,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":91,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":94},[95,99,103,107,111,115,120,123,127,130,134],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":96,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":98},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":100,"show_sort_weight":101,"slug":102},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":54,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":30,"slug":114},6,"Technology","technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality","religion-spirituality",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":20,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]