[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110343-en":3,"doc-seo-110343-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110343,4398048949847,"Eliana","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/400002536579ef2da7f?_k=1778318612642679267",8,"Research & Report","Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate Risk Assessment","Guinea faces a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, with ratings leaving some capacity to absorb shocks. Under the baseline scenario, all public and external debt burden indicators remain below policy-dependent thresholds; however, the public debt ratio stays near the threshold and the debt service-to-revenue ratio remains high, highlighting rollover risk. Stress tests indicate vulnerabilities rise under adverse shocks, and under an extreme export shock, solvency and liquidity indicators breach thresholds for extended periods. Debt sustainability depends on prudent macro-fiscal policies, maximizing concessionality, expanding domestic financing, strengthening debt management, and improving public investment management, while addressing risks from mining-export concentration and recent non-concessional borrowing and gaps in domestic arrears coverage.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nA. Adugna and Marcello Estevão (IDA); Montfort Mlachila and Eugenio Cerutti (IMF)  \nPrepared by the International Monetary Fund and the International Development Association.  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| GUINEA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS1 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Some space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nGuinea remains at moderate risk of debt distress, with some space to absorb shocks, the latter, a modest improvement from the last DSA. All public and external debt burden indicators under the baseline scenario lie below their policydependent thresholds. External debt ratios lie sufficiently below to warrant some space to absorb shocks. The overall public debt ratio remains close to the threshold throughout the projection horizon, while total debt service-to-revenue ratio stays high, underscoring rollover risks. Stress tests suggest that debt vulnerabilities will increase if adverse shocks materialize. Under the most extreme stress test—which involves a negative shock to exports—all solvency and liquidity indicators breach their thresholds for prolonged periods. Public debt declined to 40.4 percent of GDP at end-2021 and external debt declined to 22.8. Prudent macro, fiscal, and financial policies, including maximizing the concessionality of new debt, tapping domestic financing sources, strengthening debt management capacity, and enhancing public investment management, remain key to preserving medium-term debt sustainability. Key downside risks to this assessment include shocks to Guinea’s concentrated mining exports and the recent shift toward more non-concessional borrowing, along with uncertainty around the stock of its unverified domestic arrears and limited debt coverage.  \n1 The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) was prepared with the World Bank and in collaboration with the Guinean authorities. This DSA has been prepared following the revised Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) for LICs and Guidance Note (2017) in effect as of July 1, 2018. The Composite Indicator (CI) for Guinea is 2.47 based on the October 2022 WEO vintage and the CPIA 2021 index, which classifies Guinea as at weak debt-carrying capacity.  \n1. The definition of public debt used in this DSA covers central government debt, central government-guaranteed debt, and central bank debt contracted on behalf of the government (Table 1) .2 While other elements of public sector debt, such as non-guaranteed debt of state-owned enterprises, are not included due to data constraints, they are assessed as not relevant.3 This is because local governments in Guinea have limited debt exposure and the stock of non-guaranteed SOE debt is also likely to be small. Staff continues to work with the authorities to broaden the coverage of public debt and improve capacity to address debt data weaknesses, including private external debt.4 The definition of public and publicly guaranteed debt (PPG) used in the DSA includes the loan for the Souapiti hydropower project (US$1 .2 billion, about 10 percent of 2018 GDP) signed on September 4, 2018.5 Per the terms of the loan agreement, the government is the debtor and assumed to be responsible for servicing the loan in the DSA.6  \n\n| \u003Cbr> |\n| --- |\n| \u003Cbr>1 The country's coverage of public debt\u003Cbr>The central government plus social security, central bank, government-guaranteed debt |\n| Default Used for the analysis Reasons for deviations from the default settings 2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5 Other elements of the general government not captured in 1.\u003Cbr>SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government) 1/\u003Cbr>PPP\u003Cbr>Financial market (the default value of 5 percent of GDP is the minimum value)\u003Cbr>2.9 percent of GDP\u003Cbr>2 percent of GDP\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>35  percent of PPP stock\u003Cbr>5 percent of GDP 2.9\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>1.33\u003Cbr>5 Total (2+3","cbCaibm0d5c6qwd8","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaibm0d5c6qwd8","pdf",758099,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Risk of Debt Distress Assessment\n## Baseline Findings and Thresholds\n## Stress Tests and Downside Risks\n## Debt Policy Measures and Data Coverage","[{\"question\":\"What is Guinea’s overall risk of debt distress according to the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"Guinea is assessed as having a moderate risk of both external and overall debt distress. The baseline indicators remain below relevant policy-dependent thresholds.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the report emphasize rollover risks despite moderate ratings?\",\"answer\":\"The overall public debt ratio stays close to the threshold throughout the projection horizon, and the total debt service-to-revenue ratio remains high. This combination underscores vulnerability to refinancing and repayment pressure.\"},{\"question\":\"How do stress tests affect the debt sustainability outlook?\",\"answer\":\"Stress tests suggest debt vulnerabilities increase when adverse shocks materialize. Under an extreme stress case with a negative export shock, solvency and liquidity indicators breach their thresholds for prolonged periods.\"}]",1784484986,48,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment/110343/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is Guinea’s overall risk of debt distress according to the analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Guinea is assessed as having a moderate risk of both external and overall debt distress. The baseline indicators remain below relevant policy-dependent thresholds.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why does the report emphasize rollover risks despite moderate ratings?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The overall public debt ratio stays close to the threshold throughout the projection horizon, and the total debt service-to-revenue ratio remains high. This combination underscores vulnerability to refinancing and repayment pressure.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How do stress tests affect the debt sustainability outlook?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Stress tests suggest debt vulnerabilities increase when adverse shocks materialize. Under an extreme stress case with a negative export shock, solvency and liquidity indicators breach their thresholds for prolonged periods.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":137},"General","general"]