[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110797-en":3,"doc-seo-110797-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110797,2336464648746,"Skyler","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - June 2021","Guinea remains at a moderate risk of external debt distress, with external debt burden indicators staying below their thresholds under the baseline scenario. Stress tests indicate that adverse shocks would increase debt vulnerabilities, and the most extreme case—negative exports shocks—can breach solvency and liquidity thresholds for prolonged periods. Public debt rose to about 43% of GDP at end-2020 due to urgent COVID-19-related balance of payments and fiscal needs, yet the overall risk of public debt distress is assessed as moderate. Recommendations emphasize a prudent, concessional external borrowing strategy and stronger debt and public investment management.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nGUINEA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nJune 2021  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão and Abebe Adugna (IDA), Catherine Pattillo (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| Guinea: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis1 |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |  |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |  |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |  |\n| Application of judgment | No |  |\n\nGuinea remains at moderate risk of external debt distress, with limited space to absorb shocks. All external debt burden indicators under the baseline scenario lie below their thresholds. Stress tests suggest that debt vulnerabilities will increase if adverse shocks materialize. Under the most extreme stress tests—which involve a negative shock to exports—all solvency and liquidity indicators breach their thresholds for prolonged periods. While public debt rose sharply to 43 percent of GDP at end-2020—reflecting additional borrowing to meet urgent balance of payments and fiscal needs due to the COVID-19 pandemic—the overall risk of public debt distress is also assessed to be moderate. These risk ratings are unchanged with respect to the December 2020 Debt Sustainability Analysis. A prudent external borrowing strategy aimed at maximizing the concessionality of new debt, strengthening debt management and enhancing public investment management remain key to preserve medium-term debt sustainability.  \n1The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) was prepared with the World Bank and in collaboration with the Guinean authorities. This DSA has been prepared following the revised Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) for LICs and Guidance Note (2017) in effect as of July 1, 2018. Guinea’s debt carrying capacity is classified as weak based on the Composite Indicator (CI) under the revised LIC DSF. Thresholds for debt burden indicators are also those established in the revised 2017 DSF.  \nCOVERAGE OF PUBLIC DEBT  \n1. The definition of public debt used in this DSA covers central government debt, central government-guaranteed debt, and central bank debt contracted on behalf of the government (Table 1). Audited and validated arrears to suppliers over the period 1982–2013 as well as domestic arrears accumulated and decumulated since then have been included in the baseline, and it is estimated that the domestic arrears stock was reduced to zero at end-2020. Other elements of public sector debt, such as non-guaranteed debt of state-owned enterprises and social security funds, are not included due to data constraints.2 A contingent liability stress test is performed to enhance the robustness ofthe DSA, whose details are outlined below. Staff continues to work with the authorities to broaden the coverage of public debt and improve capacity to address debt data weaknesses. The definition of public and publicly guaranteed debt (PPG) used in the DSA includes the loan for the Souapiti hydropower project (US$1.2 billion, about 10 percent of 2018 GDP) signed on September 4, 2018.3 Per the terms of the loan agreement, the government is the debtor and assumed to be responsible for servicing the loan in the DSA.4  \nTable 1. Coverage of Public Sector Debt and Design of the Contingent Liability Stress Test  \nSubsectors of the public sector  Check box   \nCentral government  \nState and local government  \nOther elements in the general government  \no/w: Social security fund  \no/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)  \nGuarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)  \nNon-guaranteed SOE debt  \nX  \nX  \nX  \n\n| 1 | The country's coverage of public debt The central government, central bank, government-","cbCaibL5TwN6CAIl","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaibL5TwN6CAIl","pdf",490566,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Risk of Debt Distress Assessment\n## External Debt Distress Risk Rating\n## Public Debt Distress Risk Rating\n# Coverage of Public Debt\n## Definition of Public Debt\n## Contingent Liability Stress Test\n# Coverage Tables and Stress Test Design\n## Coverage of Public Sector Debt\n## Default Shocks and Assumptions\n# Recent Debt Developments","[{\"question\":\"What is Guinea’s overall risk of external debt distress in this analysis?\",\"answer\":\"Guinea’s risk of external debt distress is rated moderate. The baseline scenario keeps external debt burden indicators below their thresholds.\"},{\"question\":\"How do stress tests affect the debt risk assessment?\",\"answer\":\"Stress tests suggest vulnerabilities rise if adverse shocks occur. Under the most extreme exports shock, key solvency and liquidity indicators breach thresholds for prolonged periods.\"},{\"question\":\"What explains the sharp increase in public debt by end-2020?\",\"answer\":\"Public debt increased sharply to about 43% of GDP at end-2020 due to additional borrowing to meet urgent balance of payments and fiscal needs during the COVID-19 pandemic.\"}]",1784487126,53,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2021","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2021/110797/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is Guinea’s overall risk of external debt distress in this analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Guinea’s risk of external debt distress is rated moderate. The baseline scenario keeps external debt burden indicators below their thresholds.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"How do stress tests affect the debt risk assessment?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Stress tests suggest vulnerabilities rise if adverse shocks occur. Under the most extreme exports shock, key solvency and liquidity indicators breach thresholds for prolonged periods.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What explains the sharp increase in public debt by end-2020?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Public debt increased sharply to about 43% of GDP at end-2020 due to additional borrowing to meet urgent balance of payments and fiscal needs during the COVID-19 pandemic.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]