[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109757-en":3,"doc-seo-109757-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109757,687197207057,"Sage","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_29158cc5080c5b710cf443261637dec0",8,"Research & Report","Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability analysis - June 2020","Guinea’s joint World Bank–IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (June 2020) assesses both external and public debt risks under the baseline scenario affected by COVID-19. The overall risk of external and public debt distress is rated Moderate, with limited space to absorb shocks. While baseline indicators remain below thresholds, stress tests indicate worsening vulnerabilities and prolonged breaches of solvency and liquidity thresholds under extreme adverse shocks. The assessment uses judgment for a short-lived, marginal breach of the PV-of-public-debt-to-GDP ratio, reflecting higher-than-expected external borrowing and one-off recapitalization impacts, and depends on a 2021 rebound and project rephasing.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nGUINEA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability analysis  \nJune 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA) and Dominique Desruelle (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| Guinea: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis1 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress: | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | Yes; breach of PV-of-public-debt-to-GDP ratio is short-lived and marginal. |\n| Macroeconomic projections | The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a large downward revision of short-term growth. Needed policy response to the crisis is expected to temporarily deteriorate the fiscal position. |\n| Financing strategy | Guinea will rely mostly on concessional financing, with nonconcessional loans to increase over time. |\n| Realism tools flagged | None |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA | Moderate |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the public DSA | High |\n\n1 The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) update was approved by Dominique Desruelle (IMF) and Marcello Estevão (IDA) . Guinea’s Composite Indicator score, which is based on the October 2019 WEO and the 2018 World Bank’s CPIA, is 2.51 and its debt-carrying capacity is classified as weak. This update reflects debt service relief provided by the IMF under the CCRT, and by the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) supported by the G-20 and Paris Club. The authorities have requested participation in the DSSI and indicated their intention to adhere to its commitments. It also incorporates financial assistance from the IMF under the RCFand additional support from the World Bank for the COVID-19 response, including emergency budget support. The coverage of public debt is as in the April 2020 DSA.  \nGuinea is at moderate risk of external debt distress with limited space to absorb shocks. All external debt burden indicators under the baseline scenario, which accounts for the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, lie below their respective thresholds. Stress tests suggest that debt vulnerabilities will increase if further adverse shocks materialize. Under the most extreme stress tests, all solvency and liquidity indicators breach their thresholds for prolonged periods. The overall risk of public debt distress is also assessed to be moderate, with the application of judgement regarding a brief and marginal breach for the PV of total-public-debt-to-GDP ratio over 2020–21, reflecting higher-than-earlier anticipated external borrowing in 2020 to fill urgent balance of payment and fiscal financing needs due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the one-off impact of the 2018 recapitalization of the central bank. 1 This assessment hinges on the anticipated rebound of the Guinean economy in 2021 and rephasing of non-priority projects to enable scaling-up health infrastructure. In view of downside risks and knife-edge results of the granularity tool, staff considers that Guinea has limited space to absorb shocks.  \nTable 1. Guinea: LICDSA Macroeconomic Assumptions  \n(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)  \n\n|  |  |  | Previous DSA |  |  |  |  | Current DSA |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 |\n| Nominal GDP ($ Million) | 12181 | 13797 | 14951 | 21302 | 29944 | 12181 | 13797 | 14244 | 20343 | 28580 |\n| Real GDP (percentage change) | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 5.0 | 5.0 |\n| Fiscal Accounts |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |\n| Revenues | 13.1 | 13.7 | 14.1 | 16.4 | 17.2 | 13.1 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 16.0 | 16.9 |\n| Grants | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 |\n| Public Sector Expend","cbCaioM3S94xnqKT","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaioM3S94xnqKT","pdf",439769,5,1,13,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment\n## External Debt Distress Rating\n## Public Debt Distress Rating\n# Macroeconomic and Financing Assumptions\n## COVID-19 Impact and Policy Response\n## Financing Strategy and Judgment\n# Debt Sustainability Framework Results\n## Baseline Scenario (2017–40)\n## Macroeconomic Assumptions Tables","[{\"question\":\"What is Guinea’s overall risk rating for debt distress in the June 2020 analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates the overall risk of both external debt distress and public debt distress as Moderate.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the COVID-19 pandemic affect the macroeconomic projections used in the DSA?\",\"answer\":\"COVID-19 causes a large downward revision of short-term growth, and the needed policy response is expected to temporarily deteriorate the fiscal position.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is judgment applied even though thresholds are largely not breached under the baseline?\",\"answer\":\"Judgment is used because a breach of the PV-of-public-debt-to-GDP ratio is described as brief and marginal, linked to higher-than-earlier anticipated external borrowing in 2020 and one-off effects from central bank recapitalization.\"}]","Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability analysis - June 2020 | PDF",1784482236,33,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":88,"head_meta":90,"extra_data":92,"updated_unix":29},"guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":87},[38,55,70],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":54},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2020/109757/",4,{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":56,"author":57,"headline":13,"publisher":59,"fileFormat":62,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":63,"datePublished":64,"encodingFormat":62,"isAccessibleForFree":65,"interactionStatistic":66},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":58},"Person",{"url":42,"name":60,"@type":61},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":67,"interactionType":68,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":69},"ViewAction",{"@type":71,"mainEntity":72},"FAQPage",[73,79,83],{"name":74,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":76},"What is Guinea’s overall risk rating for debt distress in the June 2020 analysis?","Question",{"text":77,"@type":78},"The analysis rates the overall risk of both external debt distress and public debt distress as Moderate.","Answer",{"name":80,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":81},"How does the COVID-19 pandemic affect the macroeconomic projections used in the DSA?",{"text":82,"@type":78},"COVID-19 causes a large downward revision of short-term growth, and the needed policy response is expected to temporarily deteriorate the fiscal position.",{"name":84,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":85},"Why is judgment applied even though thresholds are largely not breached under the baseline?",{"text":86,"@type":78},"Judgment is used because a breach of the PV-of-public-debt-to-GDP ratio is described as brief and marginal, linked to higher-than-earlier anticipated external borrowing in 2020 and one-off effects from central bank recapitalization.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":89,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":60,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":91,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":94},[95,99,103,107,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":96,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":98},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":100,"show_sort_weight":101,"slug":102},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":54,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":20,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]