[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109605-en":3,"doc-seo-109605-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109605,7971461740886,"Theodore","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_3d24733baf745e90a7e4bdd5f77d97b2",8,"Research & Report","Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020 - Moderate external and public debt distress risk","Guinea faces a moderate risk of external debt distress, with baseline external debt burden indicators staying below their policy-dependent thresholds. Stress tests indicate rising debt vulnerabilities if adverse shocks occur, and the most extreme scenarios can breach solvency and liquidity thresholds for prolonged periods. The overall risk of public debt distress is also assessed as moderate, including judgement on a brief and marginal breach linked to the central bank recapitalization, while borrowing space beyond the baseline remains limited.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nGUINEA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nApril 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA) and Abebe Aemro Selassie (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| Guinea Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis1 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Some space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | Yes, the overall of debt distress is assessed to be moderate against a mechanical rating of high risk of debt distress |\n\nGuinea is at moderate risk of external debt distress with some space to absorb shocks. All external debt burden indicators under the baseline scenario lie below their policy-dependent thresholds. Stress tests suggest that debt vulnerabilities will increase if adverse shocks materialize. Under the most extreme stress tests, all solvency and liquidity indicators breach their thresholds for prolonged periods. The overall risk of public debt distress is also assessed to be moderate, with the application of judgement regarding a brief and marginal breach for the PV of total-public-debtto-GDP ratio over 2020–21, reflecting the one-off impact of the recapitalization of the central bank. Guinea’s external and public debt dynamics position are broadly unchanged compared to the July 2019 DSA update, and space for additional borrowing beyond what is included in the baseline scenario remains limited, notably in the near term. A prudent external borrowing strategy aimed at maximizing the concessionality of new debt, limiting non-concessional loans to programmed amounts and strengthening debt management will be key to preserving medium-term debt sustainability.  \n1The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) was prepared with the World Bank and in collaboration with the Guinean authorities. This DSA has been prepared following the revised Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) for LICs and Guidance Note (2017) in effect as of July 1, 2018. Guinea’s debt carrying capacity is classified as weak based on the Composite Indicator (CI) under the revised LIC DSF. Thresholds for debt burden indicators are also those established in the revised 2017 DSF.  \nCOVERAGE OF PUBLIC DEBT  \n1. The definition of public debt used in this DSA covers central government debt, central government-guaranteed debt, and central bank debt contracted on behalf of the government (Table 1).2 Audited and validated arrears to suppliers over the period 1982–2013 as well as domestic arrears accumulated in 2017-18 and decumulated in 2019 (for domestic arrears stock at about 2.5 percent of GDP at end-2019 based on preliminary estimates) have been included in the baseline.3 While other elements of public sector debt, such as non-guaranteed debt of state-owned enterprises and social security funds, are not included due to data constraints, they are assessed as not relevant. In addition, a contingent liability stress test is performed to enhance the robustness ofthe DSA. Staff continues to work with the authorities to broaden the coverage of public debt and improve capacity to address debt data weaknesses. The definition of public and publicly guaranteed debt (PPG) used in the DSA includes the loan for the Souapiti dam (US$1.2 billion, about 10 percent of 2018 GDP) signed on September 4, 2018.4 Furthermore, to depict the potential full impact on the debt profile, the government is assumed to be responsible for servicing the loan in the DSA.5  \nTable 1. Guinea: Coverage of Public Sector Debt and Design of the Contingent Liability Stress  \nTest  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n|  |\n\nSubsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered  \n1 Central government X  \n2 State and local government  \n3 Other elements in the general government  \n4 o/w: So","cbCaidaj9nUr4bSk","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaidaj9nUr4bSk","pdf",555169,5,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and key findings\n## External debt distress risk\n## Public debt distress risk and judgement\n# Coverage of public debt\n## Definition and included components\n## Contingent liability stress test\n# Coverage table design","[{\"question\":\"How does the report assess Guinea’s risk of external debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The report assesses Guinea’s risk of external debt distress as moderate, with baseline debt burden indicators below policy-dependent thresholds.\"},{\"question\":\"What do stress tests indicate about Guinea’s debt vulnerabilities?\",\"answer\":\"Stress tests suggest debt vulnerabilities increase under adverse shocks, and under the most extreme tests, solvency and liquidity indicators can breach thresholds for prolonged periods.\"},{\"question\":\"What approach and coverage does the report use for the definition of public debt?\",\"answer\":\"The definition covers central government debt, central government-guaranteed debt, and central bank debt contracted on behalf of the government, and it also includes audited and validated supplier arrears from 1982–2013 plus domestic arrears accumulated in 2017–18 and decumulated in 2019.\"}]","Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020 - Moderate external and public debt distress risk | PDF",1784481486,48,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":88,"head_meta":90,"extra_data":92,"updated_unix":29},"guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020-moderate-external-and-public-debt-distress-risk","",{"@graph":37,"@context":87},[38,55,70],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":54},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020-moderate-external-and-public-debt-distress-risk/109605/",4,{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":56,"author":57,"headline":13,"publisher":59,"fileFormat":62,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":63,"datePublished":64,"encodingFormat":62,"isAccessibleForFree":65,"interactionStatistic":66},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":58},"Person",{"url":42,"name":60,"@type":61},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-29","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":67,"interactionType":68,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":69},"ViewAction",{"@type":71,"mainEntity":72},"FAQPage",[73,79,83],{"name":74,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":76},"How does the report assess Guinea’s risk of external debt distress?","Question",{"text":77,"@type":78},"The report assesses Guinea’s risk of external debt distress as moderate, with baseline debt burden indicators below policy-dependent thresholds.","Answer",{"name":80,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":81},"What do stress tests indicate about Guinea’s debt vulnerabilities?",{"text":82,"@type":78},"Stress tests suggest debt vulnerabilities increase under adverse shocks, and under the most extreme tests, solvency and liquidity indicators can breach thresholds for prolonged periods.",{"name":84,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":85},"What approach and coverage does the report use for the definition of public debt?",{"text":86,"@type":78},"The definition covers central government debt, central government-guaranteed debt, and central bank debt contracted on behalf of the government, and it also includes audited and validated supplier arrears from 1982–2013 plus domestic arrears accumulated in 2017–18 and decumulated in 2019.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":89,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":60,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":91,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":94},[95,99,103,107,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":96,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":98},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":100,"show_sort_weight":101,"slug":102},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":54,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":20,"slug":138},"General","general"]