[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110923-en":3,"doc-seo-110923-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110923,1374391974585,"Genevieve","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","Guinea-Bissau - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis","Guinea-Bissau’s external and overall debt distress risks remain high, consistent with the February 2021 debt sustainability analysis. Economic contraction in 2020, pressure from cashew exports and investment, and COVID-19 disruptions widened balance of payments and fiscal gaps, driving larger non-concessional domestic borrowing and a sharp rise in public debt to GDP. The baseline assumes gradual recovery and sustained growth, but sustainability is highly dependent on strong fiscal adjustment, donor re-engagement, and mitigating downside risks from weaker growth, export shocks, and contingent liabilities.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nGUINEA-BISSAU  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nJuly 2021  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA) 1, 2 and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão, Abebe Adugna (IDA), Annalisa Fedelino and Craig Beaumont  \n(IMF)  \n\n| Guinea-Bissau: Joint Bank-Fund Staff Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes. The external rating has been downgraded from“Moderate” to “High” to reflect vulnerabilities from high overall public debt and substantial downside risks to the baseline scenario. |\n\nGuinea-Bissau’s risks of external and overall debt distress remain high, in line with the February 2021 DSA. Real GDP contracted by an estimated 1.4 percent in 2020 as the global economic slowdown weighed on cashew nut exports and foreign direct investment, and COVID-19 lockdown measures hindered domestic non-cashew activity and retail trade. Together with higher health and social spending, this opened exceptionally large balance of payments and fiscal gaps which were addressed mainly by increased recourse to non-concessional domestic borrowing. Asa result, the ratio of public debt to GDP increased by 13.4 percentage points in 2020.  \nThe macroeconomic outlook underpinning the DSA assumes a gradual economic recovery in 2021-22 and sustained growth in the medium-term supported by the anticipated rebound of international cashew markets, favorable terms of trade, a more stable socio-political environment,  \n1 The previous DSA was dated February 1, 2021 (IMF Country Report No. 21/29) and accompanied the Guinea-Bissau’s Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) request.  \n2 The DSA compares the evolution of debt-burden indicators against thresholds and benchmarks pre-determined by the country’s debt-carrying capacity. This capacity is classified as weak for Guinea-Bissau (Para.14) .  \nsignificant governance and structural reforms as well as fiscal consolidation efforts creating fiscal space for higher social spending and steady growth-enhancing public investment.  \nThe present value (PV) of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt relative to GDP exhibits a prolonged and substantial breach of its indicative benchmark. However, considering that (i) the country benefits from WAEMU currency union safeguards that provide for financial and technical support from the regional debt market institutions and larger regional members with strong debt carrying capacity; (ii) the PV of public debt shows a consistent downward trend from 2021 onwards under the baseline scenario, and (iii) the external DSA indicators for extra-regional debt are consistent with sustainability (in the sense of remaining below the thresholds over the mediumterm), public debt is assessed as sustainable on a forward-looking basis.  \nThis conclusion is contingent on the authorities’ strong commitment to an ambitious, yet feasible, fiscal adjustment aiming to bring the fiscal deficit within the 3 percent of GDP WAEMU convergence criterion by 2025, supported by a Fund’s Staff Monitored Program (SMP) possibly followed by an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) in the first half of 2022 , together with multilateral grants and concessional financing. The downward trend of the baseline debt indicators would further improve with full multilateral donor re-engagement and a reprofiling of debt obligations to highly concessional terms.  \nThe debt outlook remains highly vulnerable to a weaker economic recovery, adverse terms-oftrade and export shocks as well as the materialization of contingent liabilities (as coverage of public debt is limited) . A relapse into socio-political turmoil in this fragile country could undermine the authorities’ lon","cbCaildh0rawdhmD","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaildh0rawdhmD","pdf",462541,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Risk and overall assessment\n## External debt distress rating\n## Judgment and scenario vulnerabilities\n# Macroeconomic background and debt indicators\n## 2020 developments and policy response\n## Baseline assumptions and reforms\n# Sustainability conclusion and conditions\n## Fiscal adjustment and financing strategy\n## Downside risks and contingency liabilities\n# Background: public debt coverage\n## Scope of public debt perimeter\n## Currency basis treatment and domestic debt inclusion\n## Baseline scenario coverage table","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall risk level of debt distress for Guinea-Bissau?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis indicates a high risk of both external debt distress and overall debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"Why did public debt rise in 2020?\",\"answer\":\"Real GDP contracted and COVID-19 measures disrupted activity, widening balance of payments and fiscal gaps. These gaps were addressed mainly through increased recourse to non-concessional domestic borrowing, raising the public debt-to-GDP ratio.\"},{\"question\":\"Under what conditions is debt assessed as sustainable?\",\"answer\":\"Sustainability depends on a strong, feasible fiscal adjustment to meet the WAEMU 3 percent of GDP deficit criterion by 2025, supported by a Fund Staff Monitored Program and concessional financing, with improvements from renewed multilateral donor engagement and reprofiling of debt obligations.\"}]",1784487731,50,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"guinea-bissau-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/guinea-bissau-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis/110923/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is the overall risk level of debt distress for Guinea-Bissau?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The analysis indicates a high risk of both external debt distress and overall debt distress.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Why did public debt rise in 2020?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Real GDP contracted and COVID-19 measures disrupted activity, widening balance of payments and fiscal gaps. These gaps were addressed mainly through increased recourse to non-concessional domestic borrowing, raising the public debt-to-GDP ratio.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Under what conditions is debt assessed as sustainable?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Sustainability depends on a strong, feasible fiscal adjustment to meet the WAEMU 3 percent of GDP deficit criterion by 2025, supported by a Fund Staff Monitored Program and concessional financing, with improvements from renewed multilateral donor engagement and reprofiling of debt obligations.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,113,118,121,125,128,132],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":28,"slug":112},6,"Technology","technology",{"id":114,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":115,"show_sort_weight":116,"slug":117},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},30,"research-report",{"id":122,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":123,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":124},9,"Religion & Spirituality","religion-spirituality",{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":127},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":129,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":129,"slug":131},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":135},19,"General","general"]