[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-112373-en":3,"doc-seo-112373-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},112373,549758252649,"Ivy","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/8000253669c5317157?_k=1778319167496531819",8,"Research & Report","Guinea-Bissau - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt distress risk assessment","Guinea-Bissau faces a high risk of external and overall debt distress, with the risk assessment unchanged from the prior DSA (June 2025). Although an upgrade of the assessed debt carrying capacity to “medium” in April 2026 introduces signals of moderate external risk, judgment keeps the rating at high due to indications that non-residents hold a large share of local-currency public debt and that standard export shocks can trigger multi-year breaches with limited buffers. Public debt is assessed as sustainable under fiscal consolidation commitments, declining from 82.4% of GDP (2024) to 75.1% (2025).","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Seynabou Sakho (IDA) , and Montfort Mlachila and Jacques Miniane (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)1  \n\n| GUINEA-BISSAU: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes |\n\nGuinea-Bissau remains at high risk of external and overall debt distress, unchanged from the previous DSA (June 2025) . A recent upgrading of Guinea-Bissau’s assessed debt carrying capacity results in mechanical signals of moderate risk of external debt distress.2 However, judgement is applied to maintain the risk of external debt distress at high because there are strong indications that non-residents hold a large share of Guinea-Bissau’s public debt denominated in local currency and standard export shocks lead to multi-year breaches, indicating limited buffers. That said, the stock of external debt has been steadily reduced through the prudent borrowing policy under the ECFsupported program and the International Development Association’s (IDA) Sustainable Development Finance Policy (SDFP) . The PV of public debt to GDP ratio breaches the benchmark for a prolonged period. However, public debt is assessed as sustainable based on the authorities’ commitments to fiscal consolidation. Public debt declined from 82.4 percent of GDP in 2024 to 75.1 percent in 2025, supported by larger nominal GDP growth, favorable FX movement, and smaller stock-flow discrepancy and overall deficit. Public debt as a share of GDP is projected to decline below the WAEMU criteria (70 percent of GDP) in 2028.  \n1 This DSA follows the Guidance Note of the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries of February 2018 and its Supplement of August 2024. The last DSA was on June 30, 2025 (Country Report No. 25/167) .  \n2 The debt carrying capacity (DCC) for Guinea-Bissau has been upgraded to ‘medium’ in April 2026. The upgrade to medium DCC is driven by an increase in the Composite Indicator above the relevant threshold for two consecutive vintages. This reflects higher global growth and stronger regional reserve buffers.  \nThe authorities remain committed to a prudent borrowing policy and fiscal consolidation, which are the key drivers to reduce external and public debt. Despite spending overruns through August 2025, the authorities renewed their program commitments and have complied with very tight spending limits in recent months. The authorities also implemented a measure to safeguard liquidity for debt service, which has proven effective to boost investor confidence and mitigate roll-over risks. The authorities’ policy commitments are underpinned by the ECF-supported program, extended through December 29, 2026.  \n1. Public debt covers debt of the central government and the central bank and governmentguaranteed debt (Text Table 1) . Debt classification follows a hybrid approach. Debt to the BOAD (8.5 percent of GDP in 2025) is in CFA francs but classified as external, while other debt follows a currencybased classification.3 Accordingly, Treasury securities issued in the regional market (32.6 percent of GDP in 2025) are in CFAF and classified as domestic.  \n\n|  |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Subsectors of the public sector\u003Cbr>Central government | Sub-sectors covered\u003Cbr>X |\n| State and local government |  |\n| Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund |  |\n| o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) |  |\n| Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) | X |\n| Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)\u003Cbr>Non-guaranteed SOE debt | X |\n|  |  |\n\n2. The debt coverage is relatively comprehensive, although other units of general government and state-ow","cbCaijYOnEVXYXQP","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaijYOnEVXYXQP","pdf",944966,2,1,26,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment summary\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall debt distress risk\n## Judgment factors and debt carrying capacity upgrade\n# Debt outlook and drivers\n## Stock reduction and policy measures\n## Benchmarks and WAEMU criteria\n## Key assumptions and commitments\n# Coverage and debt classification\n## Public debt coverage and hybrid classification\n## SOE debt, guarantees, and contingent liabilities\n## Data limitations and monitoring systems","[{\"question\":\"Why is the external debt distress risk kept at high despite an upgrade in debt carrying capacity?\",\"answer\":\"Judgment is applied because non-residents are indicated to hold a large share of public debt denominated in local currency, and standard export shocks can cause multi-year breaches, suggesting limited buffers.\"},{\"question\":\"What evidence supports the view that public debt is sustainable?\",\"answer\":\"Public debt shows a decline from 82.4% of GDP (2024) to 75.1% in 2025, supported by higher nominal GDP growth, favorable FX movements, and smaller stock-flow discrepancies, alongside commitments to fiscal consolidation.\"},{\"question\":\"How is debt coverage defined and why do data limitations matter?\",\"answer\":\"The DSA covers central government debt, the central bank’s borrowing on behalf of government, and government-guaranteed debt, with hybrid classification by currency. Some general government units and SOEs are not fully covered due to data limitations, affecting inclusion of non-debt liabilities and contingent liabilities in the baseline.\"}]",1784494664,66,{"code":4,"msg":31,"data":32},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":33,"title":13,"keywords":34,"description":14,"schema_data":35,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":28},"guinea-bissau-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":36,"@context":85},[37,53,68],{"@type":38,"itemListElement":39},"BreadcrumbList",[40,44,47,50],{"item":41,"name":42,"@type":43,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":45,"name":46,"@type":43,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":43,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":43,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/guinea-bissau-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/112373/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":41,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-21","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"Why is the external debt distress risk kept at high despite an upgrade in debt carrying capacity?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Judgment is applied because non-residents are indicated to hold a large share of public debt denominated in local currency, and standard export shocks can cause multi-year breaches, suggesting limited buffers.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What evidence supports the view that public debt is sustainable?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Public debt shows a decline from 82.4% of GDP (2024) to 75.1% in 2025, supported by higher nominal GDP growth, favorable FX movements, and smaller stock-flow discrepancies, alongside commitments to fiscal consolidation.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How is debt coverage defined and why do data limitations matter?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The DSA covers central government debt, the central bank’s borrowing on behalf of government, and government-guaranteed debt, with hybrid classification by currency. Some general government units and SOEs are not fully covered due to data limitations, affecting inclusion of non-debt liabilities and contingent liabilities in the baseline.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]