[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110455-en":3,"doc-seo-110455-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},110455,2336464648322,"Aria","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/2200025388227c56fec?_k=1778556882303663488",8,"Research & Report","Guinea-Bissau - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Joint DSA risk assessment","Guinea-Bissau’s risk of external and overall debt distress remains high, though granularity in the rating indicates a sustainable profile. The baseline reflects faster 2021 GDP growth driven by easing COVID containment and record cashew nut production, with recovery expected after the Ukraine war effects fade. Fiscal consolidation targets a 3% of GDP WAEMU convergence criterion by 2025 to expand social spending and investment. Despite a prolonged breach in the public and publicly guaranteed debt benchmark, sustainability is assessed forward-looking, supported by WAEMU safeguards, a consistent downward PV trend from 2022, and coherent external DSA indicators, contingent on continued ambitious fiscal adjustment and donor re-engagement.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAbebe Adugna and Marcello Estevão (IDA); Montfort Mlachila and Eugenio Cerutti (IMF)  \nPrepared by the Staff of the International Development Association (IDA)1 and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| GUINEA-BISSAU: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High2 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nGuinea-Bissau’s risks of both external and overall debt distress remain high, in line with the July 2021 DSA.3 GDP growth accelerated in 2021 on the back of the gradual lifting of COVID containment measures and the record high cashew nut production, with positive spillover effects to the fiscal and external accounts. The macroeconomic outlook underpinning the DSA assumes a gradual economic recovery by 2024 , after the effects of the war in Ukraine wane out. Sustained growth in the medium-term is supported by the rebound of international cashew markets, favorable terms of trade, a more stable socio-political environment, and the ongoing governance and structural reforms. The baseline assumes that the fiscal consolidation efforts will ensure convergence to the regional convergence criterion of 3 percent of GDP by 2025 , which creates fiscal space for higher social spending and steady growth-enhancing public investment. The ratio of public debt to GDP increased in 2021 but it is projected to stabilize in 2022 and start declining in 2023  \ntowards the WAEMU 70 percent of GDP debt ceiling by 2026. Risks include an adverse political scenario, limited capacity, weaker cashew nuts exports , spillovers from on-going international crisis, volatile global food and oil prices , and climate change-related natural disasters. Financial stress in state-owned enterprises and banking fragilities arising from high NPLs and undercapitalization of a systemically important bank could generate additional outflows adding to fiscal and public debt pressures.  \nThe present value (PV) of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt relative to GDP exhibits a prolonged and substantial breach of its indicative benchmark under the baseline. However, considering that (i) the country benefits from WAEMU currency union safeguards that provide for financial and technical support from the regional debt market institutions and larger regional members with strong debt carrying capacity; (ii) the PV of public debt shows a consistent downward trend from 2022 onwards under the baseline scenario , and (iii) the external DSA indicators are consistent with sustainability in the sense of a following a downward trend over the medium-term, public debt is assessed as sustainable on a forward-looking basis.  \nThis conclusion is contingent on the authorities’ continued commitment to an ambitious, yet feasible, fiscal adjustment aiming to bring the fiscal deficit within the 3 percent of GDP WAEMU convergence criterion by 2025. This fiscal adjustment was supported by the Fund’s Staff Monitored Program (SMP) which is expected to underpin the authorities’request for an Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and help catalyze multilateral grants and concessional financing. The downward trend of the baseline debt indicators would further improve with full multilateral donor re-engagement and areprofiling of debt obligations to highly concessional terms. The authorities are also following IMF/WB advice on improving debt management and dedicating efforts to resolve legacy external arrears.  \n1. The perimeter of public debt is limited to the central government, the central bank and government-guaranteed debt. Data limitations preclude the inclusion of state-owned enterprises (SOEs)(Text Table 1) . In general, SOEs are not likely to represent a major contingent public liability. A notable exception is the electricity and water utility EAGB , which has non-publicly guaranteed debts","cbCaip1daGOS0Q8d","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaip1daGOS0Q8d","pdf",1414072,4,1,25,"English","en",105,"# Guinea-Bissau: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis\n## Debt distress risk ratings\n## Baseline macroeconomic outlook and fiscal consolidation\n## Key risks and sources of vulnerability\n## Sustainability assessment rationale and contingencies\n## Coverage/perimeter and debt classification notes\n## Capacity building and debt management actions","[{\"question\":\"What are the overall and external debt distress risk ratings for Guinea-Bissau?\",\"answer\":\"Both external debt distress risk and overall risk of debt distress are rated High. Granularity in the risk rating is described as Sustainable, with no application of judgment stated in the summary table.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors drive the baseline macroeconomic outlook in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"Baseline assumptions include gradual recovery after Ukraine-war effects diminish, supported by rebound in international cashew markets, favorable terms of trade, improved socio-political stability, and ongoing governance and structural reforms.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is debt considered sustainable on a forward-looking basis despite benchmark breaches?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis notes a prolonged breach of the indicative PV benchmark under the baseline, but sustainability is assessed forward-looking due to WAEMU currency union safeguards, a consistent downward trend in the PV of public debt from 2022, and external DSA indicators showing a downward trend over the medium term.\"}]","Guinea-Bissau - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Joint DSA risk assessment | PDF",1784485520,63,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"guinea-bissau-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-joint-dsa-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/guinea-bissau-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-joint-dsa-risk-assessment/110455/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What are the overall and external debt distress risk ratings for Guinea-Bissau?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"Both external debt distress risk and overall risk of debt distress are rated High. Granularity in the risk rating is described as Sustainable, with no application of judgment stated in the summary table.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Which factors drive the baseline macroeconomic outlook in the analysis?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"Baseline assumptions include gradual recovery after Ukraine-war effects diminish, supported by rebound in international cashew markets, favorable terms of trade, improved socio-political stability, and ongoing governance and structural reforms.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"Why is debt considered sustainable on a forward-looking basis despite benchmark breaches?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"The analysis notes a prolonged breach of the indicative PV benchmark under the baseline, but sustainability is assessed forward-looking due to WAEMU currency union safeguards, a consistent downward trend in the PV of public debt from 2022, and external DSA indicators showing a downward trend over the medium term.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]