[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111571-en":3,"doc-seo-111571-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111571,1099514068035,"Ezra","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","Guinea-Bissau - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - External and Overall Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Guinea-Bissau remains at high risk of external and overall debt distress, with the risk level unchanged from the previous DSA. For external debt, the present value of debt to exports breaches the threshold from 2025–2027 and the debt service to exports breaches from 2030–2032, though external debt stocks have been reduced through prudent borrowing. Public debt reached 82.2% of GDP in 2024 and the PV of public debt-to-GDP breaches the benchmark for a prolonged period. The assessment stays sustainable based on fiscal consolidation plans that aim to align with WAEMU targets by 2030 and beyond, supported by expenditure controls, revenue measures, and an IMF-supported program extension to mitigate election-related risks.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA), and Montfort Mlachila and Jacques Miniane (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 1  \n\n| GUINEA-BISSAU: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nGuinea-Bissau remains at high risk of external and overall debt distress, unchanged from the previous DSA (December 2024) . 2 For external debt, the PV of debt to exports ratio breaches the threshold from 2025 to 2027 and the debt service to exports ratio also breaches from 2030 to 2032. However, the stock of external debt has been steadily reduced through the prudent borrowing policy, and the PV of external debt for 2024 was reduced from the previous DSA with the finalized schedule of debt reprofiling of the West African Bank for Development (BOAD) . Public debt stood at 82.2 percent of GDP in 2024, increased by 2.8 percent of GDP from 2023 or 4.6 percent of GDP from the previous DSA, despite reduction of the domestic primary deficit by 1.1 percent of GDP.  \nThe PV of public debt to GDP ratio breaches the benchmark for a prolonged period. However, public debt is assessed as sustainable based on the authorities’ commitments to fiscal consolidation, which will reduce public debt to the WAEMU criteria of 70 percent of GDP in 2030 and below 60 percent of GDP in the long run.  \nThe authorities have been committed to a prudent borrowing policy and fiscal consolidation, which are the key drivers  \n1 This DSA follows the Guidance Note of the Join Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries of February 2018 and its Supplement of August 2024. The last DSA was on November 27, 2024 (Country Report No. 24/353) .  \n2 Guinea-Bissau has a weak debt-carrying capacity, given the 2.65 Composite Indicator based on the October 2024 WEO and the 2023 CPIA.  \n1 >>>   \nto reduce external and public debt. The prudent borrowing policy includes strict adherence to the zero-ceiling on nonconcessional borrowing as well as tight limits to new concessional borrowing under the borrowing plan. The authorities have made significant progress in strengthening expenditure controls, which reduced domestic primary expenditure by 2.3 percent of GDP in 2024. Fiscal consolidation to put public debt on a downward trajectory is concentrated in 2025 when a domestic primary deficit will be reduced by 2.2 percent of GDP. The authorities have been implementing a long list of revenue and expenditure measures that buttress the deficit target. However, the risks to fiscal consolidation are high, especially on an expenditure side, ahead of the election in November 23, 2025. There was 1.8 percent of GDP of spending overrun in early 2025, although its impact will be fully compensated by additional measures introduced under the IMF supported program. The program extension for six months, which will pin down the authorities’ policy commitments for the whole 2025, is an attempt to mitigate these risks.  \n1. Public debt covers debt of the central government and the central bank and governmentguaranteed debt (Text Table 1) . Debt classification follows a hybrid approach. Debt to the BOAD (9 .8 percent of GDP in 2024) is in CFA francs but classified as external, while other debt follows a currencybased classification.3 Accordingly, Treasury securities issued in the regional market (30 .8 percent of GDP in 2024) are in CFAF and classified as domestic.  \n\n|  |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Subsectors of the public sector\u003Cbr>Central government | Sub-sectors covered X |\n| State and local government |  |\n| Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund |  |\n| o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) |  |\n| Guarantees (to other entities in the publi","cbCaimQknzB17pTu","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaimQknzB17pTu","pdf",2010315,1,24,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and baseline overview\n## External debt distress indicators\n## Public debt sustainability and WAEMU targets\n## Drivers of consolidation and borrowing policy\n## Debt coverage and classification scope","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall debt distress risk level for Guinea-Bissau in this analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk of debt distress is high, and it remains unchanged from the previous DSA.\"},{\"question\":\"Which external debt indicators breach thresholds, and during what periods?\",\"answer\":\"The PV of debt to exports breaches from 2025 to 2027, and the debt service to exports breaches from 2030 to 2032.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is public debt assessed as sustainable despite breaching the PV benchmark?\",\"answer\":\"The assessment relies on authorities’ commitments to fiscal consolidation that are expected to reduce public debt to WAEMU criteria by 2030 and below 60% in the long run.\"}]",1784490731,60,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"guinea-bissau-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-and-overall-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/guinea-bissau-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-and-overall-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111571/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the overall debt distress risk level for Guinea-Bissau in this analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The overall risk of debt distress is high, and it remains unchanged from the previous DSA.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which external debt indicators breach thresholds, and during what periods?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The PV of debt to exports breaches from 2025 to 2027, and the debt service to exports breaches from 2030 to 2032.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Why is public debt assessed as sustainable despite breaching the PV benchmark?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The assessment relies on authorities’ commitments to fiscal consolidation that are expected to reduce public debt to WAEMU criteria by 2030 and below 60% in the long 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