[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111059-en":3,"doc-seo-111059-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111059,1099513958607,"Jiven","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/100002390cf8733938c?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1778829742770036399",8,"Research & Report","Guinea-Bissau - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Guinea-Bissau’s risks of external and overall debt distress remain high, even though key external debt-burden indicators stay below indicative thresholds for most of the projection period. Temporary breaches occur for several ratios, driven by lingering cashew export shocks, while BOAD debt reprofiling reduces near-term debt service needs and strengthens liquidity from 2024 to 2029. Public debt is assessed as sustainable with high risk, supported by WAEMU safeguards, fiscal consolidation, and a consistent downward baseline path, conditioned on continued feasible fiscal adjustment and broader donor re-engagement.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna Dadi (IDA) Montfort Mlachila and Fabian Bornhorst (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 1 , 2  \n\n| GUINEA-BISSAU: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High3 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nGuinea-Bissau’s risks of external and overall debt distress remain high, as in the November 2023 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) . The PV of external debt-to-GDP and the external debt-service-to-revenue both remain below the indicative threshold for the whole projection period. The PV of external debt-to-export ratio remains above the threshold for several years but gradually declines over the medium term and falls below the threshold by 2029. The external debt service-to-exports ratio breaches the threshold between 2030 and 2032 with a declining trend afterwards. This DSA incorporates into the baseline the new debt service schedule resulting from the recent reprofiling of BOAD’s debt.  \n4 The breaches observed to public and external debt levels are attributable to the prolonged effects of recent shocks to cashew exports, while BOAD’s debt reprofiling reduces debt service obligations and improves liquidity indicators between 2024 and 2029. The PV of total public debt-to-GDP ratio is on a downward path under the baseline scenario,  \n1 The previous DSA was dated November 10, 2023 (IMF Country Report No. 23/403) and accompanied the Request for an Augmentation of Access in the Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) .  \n2 The DSA compares the evolution of debt-burden indicators against thresholds and benchmarks pre-determined by the country’s debt-carrying capacity. Guinea-Bissau’s Composite Indicator (CI) index, based on October 2024 WEO update and the World Bank’s 2023 World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), indicates that the country’s debt carrying capacity remains weak (Para. 15) .  \n3 This DSA follows the Guidance Note of the Join Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries of February 2018 and its Supplement of August 2024.  \n4 Approved by the Banque Ouest Africaine de Developpement on March 25, 2024.  \nbut it stays above its indicative benchmark of 35 percent throughout the entire forecast period. However, public debt is assessed as sustainable with high risk of debt distress reflecting that: (i) the country benefits from WAEMU currency union safeguards that provide for financial and technical support from the regional debt market institutions and larger regional members with strong debt carrying capacity; (ii) the ongoing fiscal consolidation strategy includes marginal additional net issuance, and the rollover of maturing domestic debt should be supported by country’s minor role in the regional market; (iii) the PV of public debt shows a consistent downward trend from 2024 onwards under the baseline scenario; and (iv) the external DSA indicators are trending downwards consistent with sustainability over the mediumterm.  \nThis conclusion is contingent on the authorities’ continued commitment to an ambitious, yet feasible, fiscal adjustment that aims to bring the fiscal deficit within the 3 percent of GDP WAEMU convergence criterion by 2025. This fiscal adjustment is supported by the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. Risks include political instability, uncertainty around the forthcoming elections, limited state capacity, weaker cashew nut exports, tighter global and regional financial conditions, higher global food and oil prices, and natural disasters. Financial stress in state-owned enterprises and high NPLs are a source of contingent liabilities and pose macro financial risks. The downward trend of the baseline debt indicator","cbCaioh7sLBVAes1","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaioh7sLBVAes1","pdf",2122311,1,27,"English","en",105,"# Risk of debt distress\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall risk and judgment application\n## Drivers of breaches and reprofiling impact\n## Baseline sustainability assessment and conditionality\n## Risks and mitigation measures","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall debt distress risk rating for Guinea-Bissau?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk of debt distress is rated High. The external and overall risks remain high compared with the November 2023 DSA.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors explain the observed breaches in debt indicators?\",\"answer\":\"Breaches are attributed to prolonged effects of shocks to cashew exports. BOAD’s debt reprofiling reduces debt service obligations and improves liquidity indicators between 2024 and 2029.\"},{\"question\":\"On what conditions does the conclusion about debt sustainability depend?\",\"answer\":\"The conclusion depends on authorities sustaining an ambitious yet feasible fiscal adjustment. This adjustment aims to keep the fiscal deficit within the WAEMU convergence criterion of 3% of GDP by 2025, supported by the Extended Credit Facility (ECF).\"}]",1784488382,68,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"guinea-bissau-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/guinea-bissau-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111059/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the overall debt distress risk rating for Guinea-Bissau?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The overall risk of debt distress is rated High. The external and overall risks remain high compared with the November 2023 DSA.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which factors explain the observed breaches in debt indicators?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Breaches are attributed to prolonged effects of shocks to cashew exports. BOAD’s debt reprofiling reduces debt service obligations and improves liquidity indicators between 2024 and 2029.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"On what conditions does the conclusion about debt sustainability depend?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The conclusion depends on authorities sustaining an ambitious yet feasible fiscal adjustment. This adjustment aims to keep the fiscal deficit within the WAEMU convergence criterion of 3% of GDP by 2025, supported by the Extended Credit Facility (ECF).","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]