[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109165-en":3,"doc-seo-109165-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109165,549758146520,"Patrick","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80002397d8c0411e94?_k=1775819394049821470",8,"Research & Report","Guinea-Bissau Economic Update - Retiring the Fiscal Risk - Spring 2024","Guinea-Bissau Economic Update—Spring 2024 examines the country’s economic conditions and the fiscal pressures that shape growth, debt sustainability, and macroeconomic stability. The report reviews recent developments across the real sector, fiscal and debt dynamics, balance of payments, monetary policy and the financial sector, and poverty trends, and provides an outlook with key risks. A dedicated focus chapter analyzes the public sector pension scheme, including its design parameters, administration, beneficiaries, system dependency, and financing contributions, followed by recommendations to improve the system and reduce fiscal risk.","1  \nPub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized  \nGUINEA-BISSAU | ECONOMIC UPDATE-SPRING 2024  \nRetiring the Fiscal Risk  \n© 2024 The World Bank  \n1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; [Internet: www.worldbank.org](Internet: www.worldbank.org)  \nSome rights reserved  \nThis work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors ofThe World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.  \nRights and Permissions  \nThe material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given.  \nAttribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank (2024) Guinea-Bissau Economic Update: Retiring the Fiscal Risk, Spring 2024. © World Bank.”  \nAll queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; [e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org](e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org).  \nRETIRING THE FISCAL RISK  \nTable of Contents  \nAcknowledgments iv  \nExecutive Summary v  \nChapter 1: The State of the Economy 1  \n1.1. Context 2  \n1.2. Recent developments 2  \n1.2.1. Real sector 2  \n1.2.2. Fiscal and debt dynamics 3  \n1.2.3. Balance of payments 8  \n1.2.4. Monetary policy and the financial sector 11  \n1.2.5. Poverty 12  \n1.3. Outlook and risks 14  \nChapter 2: Public Sector Pension Scheme in Guinea-Bissau 21  \n2.1. Introduction 22  \n2.2. The public sector pension scheme: Description 23  \n2.2.1. Design parameters 23  \n2.2.2. Administration of the public service pension scheme 24  \n2.3. The public sector pension scheme: Analysis and challenges 25  \n2.3.1. Design parameters 25  \n2.3.2. Pensioners and expenditures 27  \n2.3.3. Very few pensioners benefit from the bulk of pension payments 29  \n2.3.4. Age of pensioners 29  \n2.3.5. Beneficiary coverage 31  \n2.3.6. Active worker pension contributions 33  \n2.3.7. System dependency ratio 33  \n2.3.8. Administration of the schemes 34  \n2.4. Public service pension schemes: Recommendations for improvement 37  \n2.4.1. Measures to improve the public service pension system 38  \n2.4.2. Considerations for setting up a pension fund 39  \n2.5. Summary 40  \nReferences 42  \nAnnex 1. Pension: A Simple Model 43  \nAnnex 2. Summary of Recommendations 45  \nTABLE OF CONTENTS i  \nGUINEA-BISSAU | ECONOMIC UPDATE-SPRING 2024  \nList of Boxes  \nBox 1.1. Rice subsidy impact 6  \nBox 1.2. What lies beneath – The Guinea-Bissau wage bill 6  \nBox 1.3. EAGB: The national utility SOE: A persistent fiscal risk 9  \nList of Figures  \nFigure 1.1. Annual change in real GDP and annual change in raw cashew nut (RCN) exports (2000–2023) 2  \nFigure 1.2. Expenditure lines, revenue lines, and tax revenue breakdown as percent of GDP 5  \nFigure 1.3. Guinea-Bissau public debt (percent of GDP) 8 Figure 1.4. Guinea-Bissau external debt end–2022 (percent of total) 8 Figure 1.5. Price developments of main import commodities: Rice and oil (Jan 2019–Feb 2024) 10 Figure 1.6. Changes related to cashew nut exports (y/y) 11  \nFigure 1.7. Headline inflation 2020–2023 (y/y) 11  \nFigure 1.8. Credit to the economy 12  \nFigure 1.9. Changes in monetary poverty indicators 2018/19–2021/22 by area of residence 14  \nFigure 1.10. Poverty trends by region: 2018/19–2021/22 15  \nFigure 1.11. Sectoral share of GDP 17  \nFigure 1.12. Current acc","cbCaie6pA1NqfOrw","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaie6pA1NqfOrw","pdf",1967708,5,1,60,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n# Chapter 1: The State of the Economy\n## Context\n## Recent developments\n## Outlook and risks\n# Chapter 2: Public Sector Pension Scheme in Guinea-Bissau\n## Introduction\n## The public sector pension scheme: Description\n## The public sector pension scheme: Analysis and challenges\n## Recommendations for improvement\n# Annexes","[{\"question\":\"What economic areas does the Spring 2024 update cover?\",\"answer\":\"It reviews the real sector, fiscal and debt dynamics, balance of payments, monetary policy and the financial sector, and poverty developments, then presents an outlook and risks.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the report focus on the public sector pension scheme?\",\"answer\":\"It evaluates how pension design, administration, beneficiary patterns, and financing contributions create fiscal challenges and dependence, helping identify reforms to retire the fiscal risk.\"},{\"question\":\"What types of recommendations are included for pension reform?\",\"answer\":\"The report presents measures to improve the public service pension system and considerations for establishing a pension fund, supported by an assessment of system challenges.\"}]","Guinea-Bissau Economic Update - 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