[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-108980-en":3,"doc-seo-108980-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},108980,1374391974585,"Genevieve","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","GROUNDSWELL - Acting on Internal Climate Migration - Policy Note 4 - Internal Climate Migration in the Middle East and North Africa","Groundswell Part II policy note 4 examines how slow-onset climate change can drive internal mobility across countries, emphasizing the Middle East and North Africa. Without concrete climate and development action, projections suggest over 216 million people could move within their own countries by 2050. North Africa may face up to 19.3 million internal climate migrants, with severe water scarcity and sea-level rise as key drivers. The note frames migration as both a challenge and an opportunity to support resilient, dignified adaptation and investment planning. It also highlights uncertainty and presents three scenario pathways rather than fixed forecasts.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disc losure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nGROUNDSWELL  \nActing on Internal Climate Migration  \n POLICY NOTE \\#4   \nInternal Climate Migration in the Middle East and North Africa  \nClimate change is emerging as a potent driver of mobility. The report Groundswell Part II: Acting on Internal Climate Migration (2021) projects that, by 2050, without concrete climate and development action, just over 216 million people—or around three percent of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, North Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia—could move within their own countries due to the slow-onset impacts of climate change. In North Africa alone,“internal climate migrants”could number as many as 19.3 million, representing 9.0 percent of the subregion’s total projected population.  \nClimate migrants will move from less viable areas with lower water availability and crop productivity and from areas affected by rising sea level. The poorest and most climate vulnerable areas will be hardest hit. These trends, alongside the emergence of “hotspots”of climate in- and out-migration, will have major implications for climate-sensitive sectorsand for the adequacy of urban infrastructure and social support systems in both rural and urban areas. While some climate migration cannot be avoided due to the lock-in of climate effects of past emissions, the report results also indicate that future trajectories of climate migration are not set in stone.  \nClimate migration in the Middle East and North Africa can have substantial development implications, and the stakes are high. Achieving a resilient society—where people can either adapt in place and thrive or migrate with dignity toward areas of higher opportunity—is an important part of meeting national development goals. Policy decisions made today will shape the extent to which the effects of climate change will be positive for migrants and their families. Inaction would mean missing a window of opportunity to reconfigure where, when, and how climate resilient investments are made in support of robust economies.  \nThis Policy Note \\#4 is the fourth in a series of six notes drawn from the Groundswell reports. It provides an overview of results and their implications for the Middle East and North Africa, one of the six regions of focus.  \nCLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATION: SETTING THE CONTEXT  \nClimate change will intensify environmental degradation and natural hazards in many regions. Related impacts are already directly and indirectly shifting human mobility—both within countries and across borders—and will do so increasingly. Sometimes, ensuing migration can be an adaptation to climate change. At other times, climate change impacts increase the probability of migration under distress, creating growing challenges for human development. In some areas, the most vulnerable will be unable to move, “trapped” in at risk locations.  \nRecent compounding shocks are also increasing the complexity and interconnectedness of underlying drivers of mobility. The COVID-19 pandemic and its associated economic crisis, and the effects of fragility and conflict, have compounded the shocks already faced by vulnerable people, reversing hard-won gainsin poverty reduction and shared prosperity, and adding to policy challenges.  \nThe objective of the Groundswell reports, and the modeling applied, is to provide policymakers with a way to better understand and plan for the likely movement of people within their countries—over time and across different geographies—due to slow-onset climate change impacts. These include impacts on water availability, crop productivity, and sea-level rise. The focus on “internal” climate migration is driven by the consensus that migration within countries, rather than cross-border migration, will be by far the larger phenomenon—yet both require concerted action.  \nThe reports model three internal climate m","cbCaietazx14aL5p","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaietazx14aL5p","pdf",946707,6,1,10,"English","en",105,"# Climate change and migration: setting the context\n## Climate change as a driver of mobility\n## Compounding shocks and policy complexity\n## Modeling approach and internal migration focus\n# Internal climate migration scenarios\n## Pessimistic (reference)\n## More inclusive development\n## More climate-friendly pathways\n# North Africa projections by 2050\n## Estimated migrant numbers and shares\n## Drivers: water scarcity and sea-level rise\n## Scenario differences and implications","[{\"question\":\"What does the policy note project for internal climate migration by 2050?\",\"answer\":\"It projects that without concrete climate and development action, just over 216 million people could move within their own countries by 2050 due to slow-onset climate impacts.\"},{\"question\":\"How many internal climate migrants could North Africa see by 2050?\",\"answer\":\"In the pessimistic reference scenario, North Africa could reach about 19.3 million climate migrants, representing roughly 9.0% of the subregion’s projected total population.\"},{\"question\":\"Why are the projections presented as scenarios rather than exact forecasts?\",\"answer\":\"The report models three plausible internal migration pathways over the next 30 years to reflect uncertainties, so scenario results represent a range of outcomes rather than precise predictions.\"}]","GROUNDSWELL - Acting on Internal Climate Migration - Policy Note 4 - Internal Climate Migration in the Middle East and North Africa | PDF",1784475564,25,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":88,"head_meta":90,"extra_data":92,"updated_unix":29},"groundswell-acting-on-internal-climate-migration-policy-note-4-internal-climate-migration-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa","",{"@graph":37,"@context":87},[38,55,70],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":54},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/groundswell-acting-on-internal-climate-migration-policy-note-4-internal-climate-migration-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa/108980/",4,{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":56,"author":57,"headline":13,"publisher":59,"fileFormat":62,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":63,"datePublished":64,"encodingFormat":62,"isAccessibleForFree":65,"interactionStatistic":66},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":58},"Person",{"url":42,"name":60,"@type":61},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":67,"interactionType":68,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":69},"ViewAction",{"@type":71,"mainEntity":72},"FAQPage",[73,79,83],{"name":74,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":76},"What does the policy note project for internal climate migration by 2050?","Question",{"text":77,"@type":78},"It projects that without concrete climate and development action, just over 216 million people could move within their own countries by 2050 due to slow-onset climate impacts.","Answer",{"name":80,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":81},"How many internal climate migrants could North Africa see by 2050?",{"text":82,"@type":78},"In the pessimistic reference scenario, North Africa could reach about 19.3 million climate migrants, representing roughly 9.0% of the subregion’s projected total population.",{"name":84,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":85},"Why are the projections presented as scenarios rather than exact forecasts?",{"text":86,"@type":78},"The report models three plausible internal migration pathways over the next 30 years to reflect uncertainties, so scenario results represent a range of outcomes rather than precise predictions.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":89,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":60,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":91,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":94},[95,99,103,107,112,116,121,124,129,132,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":96,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":98},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":100,"show_sort_weight":101,"slug":102},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":54,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":108,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":109,"show_sort_weight":110,"slug":111},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":134},"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]