[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111605-en":3,"doc-seo-111605-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111605,7971461740886,"Theodore","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_3d24733baf745e90a7e4bdd5f77d97b2",8,"Research & Report","Ghana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis","Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis for Ghana assesses public and publicly guaranteed debt dynamics and key external debt risk indicators under a baseline reflecting domestic debt restructuring and agreed treatment with the Official Creditor Committee. Results indicate debt remains in distress: external debt and service ratios breach thresholds over parts of the horizon, and the PV public debt-to-GDP benchmark is breached until 2034. Stress tests show contingent liability shocks and sensitivities to commodity prices, exports, and exchange rates. The study details debt coverage, including explicit and implicit SOE liabilities and domestic arrears.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAbebe Adugna and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Annalisa Fedelino (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| GHANA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS 1, 2 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Unsustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe authorities have made progress on their comprehensive debt restructuring strategy. They completed the domestic debt restructuring last year. They have also made significant progress in their discussions with Ghana’s Official Creditor Committee (OCC) under the G20 Common Framework. They have recently reached agreement with the OCC on a Memorandum of Understanding that codifies a debt treatment consistent with the IMF-supported program parameters. However, pending completion of the ongoing external commercial debt restructuring in line with the IMFsupported program parameters, Ghana remains in debt distress and debt remains unsustainable. Against the background of the external debt service suspension announced by the authorities in December 2022, Ghana accumulated around US$ 2.6 billion of external arrears to bilateral and commercial creditors in 2023.  \nUnder the baseline, which accounts for the outcome of the domestic debt restructuring and the agreement between Ghana and its OCC but does not incorporate the impact of the contemplated restructuring of external commercial claims, the present value (PV) of external debt-to-GDP breaches its threshold until 2027, while the external debt  \n1 This DSA is prepared in line with the Guidance Note of the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries, February 2018.  \n2 The Composite Indicator (CI) score of 2.722 remains between the cut-off values for weak and strong debt-carrying capacity, 2.69 and 3.05, respectively. The CI is the weighted average of the 10-year average of the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) score and macroeconomic variables from the October 2023 WEO vintage.  \nservice-to-revenues exceeds its thresholds throughout the full-time horizon of the DSA. The external debt service-toexports ratio breaches its threshold from 2032 to 2034 and later from 2040 to 2043, and the PV of debt-to-exports ratio remains below its threshold under the baseline throughout the full-time horizon of the DSA. The PV of public debt-to-GDP, which reflects the outcome of the domestic debt restructuring and the bilateral debt treatment agreed with the OCC, breaches its 55 percent benchmark until 2034. Stress test results show that a combined contingent liability shock would put overall public debt well above the current unsustainable trajectory throughout the full DSA horizon. In addition, developments over the past few years and stress tests highlight the sensitivity of the debt ratios to commodity prices, exports and exchange rate shocks.  \nThe authorities’ reform efforts are supported under the IMF’s ECF arrangement and the World Bank’s DPO series, with debt management reforms remaining an integral part of the reform package.  \n.  \n1. The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) covers public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt of the central government, with additional important liabilities of the public sector. The DSA also includes (i) explicitly guaranteed debt of other public and private sector entities including state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and (ii) certain implicitly guaranteed SOEs debt, namely: (a) Energy Sector Levy Act (ESLA) debt in the energy sector; (b) Ghana Educational Trust Fund (GETFund/Daakye) debt for education infrastructure; (c) debt related to the financing of infrastructure projects by Sinohydro and (d) gross debt of Cocobod3—one of the largest SOEs operating on non-commercial terms and largely en","cbCaig24oFQ33kG0","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaig24oFQ33kG0","pdf",864573,1,26,"English","en",105,"# Risk of external debt distress\n## Overall risk of debt distress\n## Baseline assumptions and breaches\n# Debt coverage and key liabilities\n## Public and publicly guaranteed debt\n## Domestic arrears and SOE-related liabilities\n# Reform support and reform package\n## IMF ECF and World Bank DPO series\n# Stress tests and fiscal risks\n## Contingent liability shocks\n## Sensitivity to commodity, exports, and exchange rate","[{\"question\":\"What is Ghana’s overall external debt risk rating in this analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis reports that Ghana remains in debt distress, with overall risk of debt distress rated “In debt distress.”\"},{\"question\":\"What does the baseline scenario include, and how does it affect key debt indicators?\",\"answer\":\"The baseline accounts for outcomes of domestic debt restructuring and the agreement with Ghana’s Official Creditor Committee, but it does not include contemplated restructuring of external commercial claims. Under this baseline, the PV of external debt-to-GDP breaches its threshold until 2027, and external debt service-to-revenues exceeds thresholds across the full horizon.\"},{\"question\":\"Which liabilities are included in the debt coverage, and what contingent risks are tested?\",\"answer\":\"Coverage includes central government public and publicly guaranteed debt plus additional explicit and implicit liabilities, including specific SOE-related debts and domestic supplier arrears. Tailored stress tests model contingent liabilities from the financial sector, SOEs, and PPPs, showing that combined shocks would push overall public debt above the unsustainable trajectory throughout the horizon.\"}]",1784490888,66,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"ghana-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/ghana-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis/111605/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is Ghana’s overall external debt risk rating in this analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The analysis reports that Ghana remains in debt distress, with overall risk of debt distress rated “In debt distress.”","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What does the baseline scenario include, and how does it affect key debt indicators?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The baseline accounts for outcomes of domestic debt restructuring and the agreement with Ghana’s Official Creditor Committee, but it does not include contemplated restructuring of external commercial claims. Under this baseline, the PV of external debt-to-GDP breaches its threshold until 2027, and external debt service-to-revenues exceeds thresholds across the full horizon.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Which liabilities are included in the debt coverage, and what contingent risks are tested?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Coverage includes central government public and publicly guaranteed debt plus additional explicit and implicit liabilities, including specific SOE-related debts and domestic supplier arrears. Tailored stress tests model contingent liabilities from the financial sector, SOEs, and PPPs, showing that combined shocks would push overall public debt above the unsustainable trajectory throughout the horizon.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]