[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111037-en":3,"doc-seo-111037-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111037,7971461741311,"Ophelia","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/74000253aff267980c6?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779345379180704826",8,"Research & Report","Ghana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - September 2021","Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis for Ghana assesses external and overall debt distress risk as high under the baseline. External risk reflects breaches of the present value of external debt-to-GDP through 2029 and breaches for debt service to exports and revenues over the full horizon. Overall risk is high due to public debt present value exceeding the benchmark. Sustainability depends on rigorous medium-term consolidation and improved implementation, while growth shocks and adverse terms of trade threaten debt dynamics.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nGHANA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nSeptember 2021  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão, Abebe Adugna Dadi (IDA), and Catriona Purfield (IMF)  \n\n| Ghana: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nExternal and overall debt are at high risk of debt distress. The external rating results from breaches of the present value (PV) of external debt to GDP until 2029, and breaches for debt service to exports and debt service to revenues over the full time horizon. The overall risk of debt distress is also high because the PV of public debt-to-GDP exceeds the benchmark for the full horizon. The PV of external PPG debt-to-exports ratio, the only indicator which remains below threshold under the baseline, would exceed the threshold for most of the forecast horizon under an export shock. A growth shock would send overall public debt on an ever-increasing path.  \nPublic debt is sustainable provided that the authorities’ medium-term consolidation plan (reflected in the baseline) is rigorously and credibly implemented to improve the primary balance, put debt on a declining trajectory, and ensure continued market access. However, inadequate implementation of the plan, growth slowdowns, and exogenous shocks, including longer exit from the pandemic, worsening global risk sentiment, and adverse terms of trade movements, pose significant risks to the outlook. Therefore, a deeper consolidation effort is crucial to make sustainability more robust to setbacks in policy implementation and exogenous shocks. Widening the debt perimeter and improving transparency can reduce the risks of the materialization of contingent liabilities and emergence of “hidden debt”, particularly in SOEs and off-budget operations. Debt management aimed at reducing refinancing risks should also be undertaken to complement fiscal efforts.  \nPublic Debt Coverage  \n1. The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) mainly covers public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt of the central government. The DSA also includes guarantees to other entities in the public and private sector including state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and certain non-guaranteed SOE debt. Key among those are Energy Sector Levy Act (ESLA) debt in the energy sector; Ghana Educational Trust Fund (GETFund/Daakye) debt for education infrastructure; and debt related to the bauxite mining project with Sinohydro, which are not explicitly guaranteed by the state. The DSA does not include Cocobod, one of the largest SOEs operating on non-commercial terms and engaging in quasi-fiscal activity, which would have added 2.5 percent of GDP to public debt as of end-2020. Debts to independent power producers (IPPs) and gas producers, which are currently being reconciled, are also excluded.1  \n\n|  | Subsectors of the public sector\u003Cbr>Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs)\u003Cbr>Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)\u003Cbr>Non-guaranteed SOE debt | Check box |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7 8 |  | X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X |\n\n2. The financial sector clean-up costs and energy sector losses highlight risks associated with off-balance sheet liabilities. Debt outstanding at the end of 2020 for the ESLA and GETFund/Daakye special-purpose vehicles was 2.0 and 0.4 percent of GDP, respectively. The financial sector restructuring is estimated to have cost 6.8 percent of GDP","cbCaipD5Lz8ZfQlw","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaipD5Lz8ZfQlw","pdf",571949,1,18,"English","en",105,"# Ghana: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis\n## Debt distress risk rating\n## Debt sustainability conditions and risks\n## Public debt coverage and exclusions\n## Off-balance-sheet liabilities and financial sector risks\n## Coverage of public debt by subsectors","[{\"question\":\"What does the analysis conclude about Ghana’s debt distress risk?\",\"answer\":\"Both external and overall debt distress risks are rated High under the baseline scenario.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors drive the external debt distress rating?\",\"answer\":\"Breaches of the present value of external debt to GDP until 2029, plus breaches for debt service to exports and debt service to revenues over the full horizon.\"},{\"question\":\"What is required to keep public debt sustainable?\",\"answer\":\"Rigorously and credibly implementing the authorities’ medium-term consolidation plan to improve the primary balance and place debt on a declining trajectory while maintaining market 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