[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109902-en":3,"doc-seo-109902-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109902,1374391974564,"Clementine","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/14000253aa45c000a9e?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779874745381141002",8,"Research & Report","Ghana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020","Joint World Bank and IMF debt sustainability analysis for Ghana assesses external and overall debt risk levels and evaluates how COVID-19 and oil-price shocks affect the medium-term debt path. The baseline and augmented stress tests indicate debt remains sustainable even under extreme scenarios, with debt-service indicators not on an explosive trajectory. Risks are driven primarily by the depth and duration of COVID-19 and oil shocks, with exchange-rate depreciation and export/commodity price shocks showing the largest impact. Fiscal costs and potential liquidity risks could extend into 2021, but improved buffers and reforms support the declining debt trajectory from 2022.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nGHANA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nApril 2020  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcelo Estevão (IDA) and Mark Flanagan (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| Ghana: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgement | No |\n\n1. External and overall debt are athigh risk of debt distress but remain sustainable. The shocks from COVID-19 epidemic (collapse of oil prices, decline in trade, and lower non-commodity growth) are expected to deepen current account and fiscal deficits over the medium term resulting in a higher debt path compared to the November 2019 DSA.  \n2. The end of exceptional spending items (COVID-19-related spending, financial sector restructuring) and the government’s commitment to the fiscal rule underpin the downward path of debt from 2022. Ghana enters the crisis relatively well prepared. External buffers have been strengthened with better-than-expected outturn in 2019 due to higher gold export receipts and remittances, and a $3bn Eurobond issue in early 2020. Contingent risks have been alleviated thanks to progress on the financial sector clean-up and the launch of the energy sector reform program. Gold prices (Ghana’s main export) boosted by the global flight to safety and the presale of most of 2020 cocoa harvest mitigate the impact of the shock this year.  \n3. The standard stress tests have been augmented to reflect a possible scenario with a stronger outbreak and protracted national lockdown. Growth shock has been increased to two standard deviations and exchange rate depreciation has been increased to 40 percent. Under these extreme shocks, debt still remains sustainable. Debt-service indicators are not on an explosive path. Furthermore, the DSA shocks likely exaggerate the impact on these indicators over the medium-long run given that, once the COVID emergency is solved and the elections are over, stressors such as risk premia, low commodity prices, and weak domestic revenues would improve significantly.  \n4. Nevertheless, even under the baseline, risks to the outlook remain important. Risks depend primarily on the depth and duration of the COVID-19 and oil price shock. Fiscal costs including pandemic response and measures to support economic activity could exceed those envisioned in the baseline and extend into 2021. A deeper global slowdown could have a greater impact on oil prices, private transfers and investment and further weaken the exchange rate. A more prolonged crisis could create additional liquidity risks into 2021. Stress tests show that, of these risks, exchange rate depreciation, and export and commodity prices shocks might have the greatest impact on debt sustainability.  \nFigure 1. Ghana: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt under Alternatives Scenarios, 2020-2030  \n80  \n70  \n60  \n50  \n40  \n30  \n20  \n10  \n0  \n35  \n30  \n25  \n20  \n15  \n10  \n5  \n0  \nPV of debt-to GDP ratio  \n2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030  \nDebt service-to-exports ratio  \n2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030  \n300  \n250  \n200  \n150  \n100  \n50  \n0  \n70  \n60  \n50  \n40  \n30  \n20  \n10  \n0  \nPV of debt-to-exports ratio  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n|  |\n| Most extreme shock is Exports |\n\n2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030  \nDebt service-to-revenue ratio  \n2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030  \n Baseline   Historical scenario   Most extreme shock 1/  Threshold  \nCustomization of Default Settings  \nSize Interactions  \nStandardized Tests  \nTailored Tests  \nYes Yes  \nNote: \"Yes\" indicates any change to the size or interactions of the default settings for the stress tests.\"n.a.\" indicates that the stress test does not apply.  \nBorrowing Assum","cbCairEK9Nk0oaBU","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCairEK9Nk0oaBU","pdf",323551,4,1,7,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment\n## External and Overall Debt Distress\n## Key Drivers and Baseline Outlook\n# Shock Scenarios and Stress Testing\n## COVID-19 and Oil-Price Impacts\n## Augmented Stress Tests Design\n# Results Interpretation\n## Debt Service and Sustainability Indicators\n## Sensitivities and Largest Impact Risks","[{\"question\":\"What risk ratings does the analysis assign to Ghana’s external and overall debt?\",\"answer\":\"External debt distress risk and overall risk of debt distress are rated High. Granularity in the risk rating is marked as Sustainable, indicating sustainability despite elevated risk.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the debt trajectory worsen compared with the November 2019 DSA?\",\"answer\":\"COVID-19 shocks are expected to deepen current account and fiscal deficits through lower oil prices, weaker trade, and reduced non-commodity growth, resulting in a higher debt path.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the analysis conclude under extreme stress tests?\",\"answer\":\"Even under augmented extreme shocks—including a stronger outbreak and prolonged lockdown with higher growth and larger exchange-rate depreciation—debt remains sustainable and debt-service indicators do not follow an explosive path.\"}]","Ghana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020 | PDF",1784482955,18,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"ghana-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/ghana-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020/109902/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What risk ratings does the analysis assign to Ghana’s external and overall debt?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"External debt distress risk and overall risk of debt distress are rated High. Granularity in the risk rating is marked as Sustainable, indicating sustainability despite elevated risk.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Why does the debt trajectory worsen compared with the November 2019 DSA?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"COVID-19 shocks are expected to deepen current account and fiscal deficits through lower oil prices, weaker trade, and reduced non-commodity growth, resulting in a higher debt path.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"What does the analysis conclude under extreme stress tests?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Even under augmented extreme shocks—including a stronger outbreak and prolonged lockdown with higher growth and larger exchange-rate depreciation—debt remains sustainable and debt-service indicators do not follow an explosive path.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]