[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111441-en":3,"doc-seo-111441-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111441,5909877438554,"Maeve","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/5600025385ad2bf12a7?_k=1778553567797529272",8,"Research & Report","Ghana - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis","Ghana’s joint IMF-World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis assesses external and public debt risks under current policy efforts and reform slippages ahead of the December 2024 elections. Despite indicators likely falling below LIC-DSF thresholds, staff judgment keeps Ghana at high overall risk due to exchange rate volatility, possible fiscal slippages, and elevated domestic financing needs. Debt is considered sustainable forward-looking after largely completed external restructuring, while domestic and Eurobond restructurings progress into bilateral agreements and stress tests highlight commodity and export sensitivities.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna Dadi (IDA) and Vitaliy Kramarenko (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| GHANA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS 1, 2 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes |\n\nIn light of strong efforts to rein in policy and reform slippages that emerged in the run-up to the December 2024 elections, as well as strong cedi appreciation and economic growth, all debt indicators are likely to durably fall below their respective LIC-DSF thresholds this year, resulting in a mechanical signal of moderate risk of debt distress three years before target. However, given high exchange rate volatility, continued risks of fiscal slippages, and still elevated domestic financing needs, staff judgement is applied to keep Ghana at high risk of debt distress for this review. Debt is assessed to be sustainable on a forward-looking basis as the external debt restructuring is largely completed, and the residual unrestructured debt is expected to be completed in line with program parameters.  \nThe authorities have made significant progress on their comprehensive debt restructuring strategy. They completed the domestic debt restructuring in 2023 and the restructuring of their Eurobonds in October 2024. Following the agreement with the Official Creditor Committee (OCC) under the G20 Common Framework on a Memorandum of Understanding that codifies a debt treatment consistent with the IMF-supported program parameters, the MoU was signed by all parties in January 2025, and bilateral agreements are being signed, with half expected to be finalized by  \n1 This DSA is prepared in line with the Guidance Note of the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries, February 2018 and with its 2024 Supplement.  \n2 The Composite Indicator (CI) score of 2.84 remains between the cut-off values for weak and strong debt-carrying capacity, 2.69 and 3.05, respectively. The CI is the weighted average of the 10-year average of the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) score and macroeconomic variables from the April 2025 WEO vintage.  \nend-2025. Agreements in Principle have also been reached with the first few other commercial creditors. The DSA assumes a treatment of the residual claims of all other external commercial creditors in line with the authorities’restructuring strategy that is consistent with program parameters and comparability of treatment principles. Given the small share of residual claims and the government engaging in “good faith” negotiations, those claims are deemed away for the purpose of the DSA.  \nStress test results show that a commodity price shock would put overall public debt well above the current trajectory throughout the full DSA horizon, while export shocks would push both the external debt service-to-export and the external debt service-to-revenue ratio above their thresholds, highlighting the sensitivity of public debt developments to the large share of commodity exports.  \nThe authorities’ reform efforts are supported under the IMF’s ECF arrangement and the World Bank’s DPO series, with debt management reforms remaining an integral part of the reform package.  \n1. The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) covers the central government's public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt, with additional important liabilities of the public sector. The DSA also includes (i) explicitly guaranteed debt of other public and private sector entities including state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and (ii) certain implicitly guaranteed SOEs debt, namely: (a) Energy Sector Levy Act (ESLA) debt in the energy sector; (b) Ghana Educational Trust Fund (GETFund/Daakye) debt for education","cbCaideIwI9NbDCn","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaideIwI9NbDCn","pdf",1077159,1,29,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment\n## External debt distress and overall risk\n## Granularity and judgment application\n\n# Restructuring progress and assumptions\n## Domestic debt restructuring and Eurobond treatment\n## MoU under the G20 Common Framework\n## Residual claims and comparability principles\n\n# Stress testing and fiscal risks\n## Commodity and export shock sensitivity\n## Financial sector cleanup and energy sector losses\n\n# Debt coverage and contingent liabilities\n## Coverage of PPG debt and additional liabilities\n## Domestic arrears and excluded local government borrowing\n## Modeled contingent liabilities in stress tests","[{\"question\":\"What risk level does the analysis assign to Ghana’s debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"External debt distress and overall risk of debt distress are assessed as High. The granularity in the risk rating is Sustainable, with judgment used to reflect remaining risks.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does staff judgement keep Ghana at high risk despite a mechanical moderate signal?\",\"answer\":\"Indicators are expected to fall below LIC-DSF thresholds due to policy tightening, cedi appreciation, and growth, but high exchange rate volatility, continued fiscal slippage risks, and elevated domestic financing needs justify maintaining a High risk rating.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the analysis treat debt restructuring and residual external claims?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis assumes external debt restructuring is largely completed, with residual unrestructured debt expected to be completed in line with program parameters. Treatment of residual claims from other commercial creditors is assumed consistent with the authorities’ restructuring strategy and program comparability principles.\"}]",1784490147,73,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"ghana-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/ghana-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis/111441/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What risk level does the analysis assign to Ghana’s debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"External debt distress and overall risk of debt distress are assessed as High. The granularity in the risk rating is Sustainable, with judgment used to reflect remaining risks.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why does staff judgement keep Ghana at high risk despite a mechanical moderate signal?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Indicators are expected to fall below LIC-DSF thresholds due to policy tightening, cedi appreciation, and growth, but high exchange rate volatility, continued fiscal slippage risks, and elevated domestic financing needs justify maintaining a High risk rating.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How does the analysis treat debt restructuring and residual external claims?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The analysis assumes external debt restructuring is largely completed, with residual unrestructured debt expected to be completed in line with program parameters. Treatment of residual claims from other commercial creditors is assumed consistent with the authorities’ restructuring strategy and program comparability principles.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]