[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111690-en":3,"doc-seo-111690-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111690,1374391975076,"Riley","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/14000253ca4ec9f6853?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1783305029341752051",8,"Research & Report","Ghana - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Joint World Bank–IMF debt sustainability analysis for Ghana assesses external and overall debt distress risks using LIC-DSF thresholds and the Composite Indicator framework. The baseline reflects completed domestic and Eurobond restructuring and a G20 Common Framework Memorandum of Understanding signed in early 2025, while remaining residual external claims are excluded for DSA purposes. The near-term risk remains high due to threshold breaches and fiscal slippages, though forward-looking projections show debt sustainability. Stress tests indicate commodity price shocks could push public debt above the trajectory and increase sensitivity to export and commodity conditions.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA) , and Annalisa Fedelino (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| GHANA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS1, 2 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe authorities have made significant progress on their comprehensive debt restructuring strategy. They completed the domestic debt restructuring in 2023 and the restructuring of their Eurobonds in October 2024. Following the agreement with the Official Creditor Committee (OCC) under the G20 Common Framework on a Memorandum of Understanding that codifies a debt treatment consistent with the IMF-supported program parameters, the MoU was signed by all parties in January 2025, and bilateral agreements are now being prepared. The DSA assumes a treatment of the residual claims of other external commercial creditors in line with the authorities’ restructuring strategy that is consistent with program parameters and comparability of treatment principles. Given the small share of residual claims and the government engaging in “good faith” negotiations, those claims are deemed away for the purpose of the DSA.  \nPolicy and reform implementation has deteriorated significantly over the past few months. Fiscal slippages emerged in the run-up to the December 2024 elections, resulting in the accumulation of significant amounts of domestic arrears. Nevertheless, with a targeted primary surplus as of 2025, higher growth and inflation and a more appreciated exchange rate than expected, the authorities’ objective of bringing all debt ratios under their respective LIC-DSF thresholds by  \n1 This DSA is prepared in line with the Guidance Note of the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries, February 2018 and with its 2024 Supplement.  \n2 The Composite Indicator (CI) score of 2.79 remains between the cut-off values for weak and strong debt-carrying capacity, 2.69 and 3.05, respectively. The CI is the weighted average of the 10-year average of the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) score and macroeconomic variables from the October 2024 WEO vintage.  \nend-2028 remains achievable. In particular, the PV of total debt-to-GDP and external debt service-to-revenue ratios are projected to fall below 55 and 18 percent by 2028, respectively. Ghana remains at high risk of debt distress due to near-term breaches of the thresholds but is expected to reach moderate risk of debt distress in the medium term. Debt is assessed to be sustainable on a forward-looking basis as the external debt restructuring is expected to be completed in line with program parameters.  \nStress test results show that a commodity price shock would put overall public debt well above the current trajectory throughout the full DSA horizon. In addition, developments over the past few years and stress tests highlight the sensitivity of the external and overall debt ratios to commodity prices and exports, as well as a combination of shocks.  \nThe authorities’ reform efforts are supported under the IMF’s ECF arrangement and the World Bank’s DPO series, with debt management reforms remaining an integral part of the reform package.  \n1. The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) covers the central government's public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt, with additional important liabilities of the public sector. The DSA also includes (i) explicitly guaranteed debt of other public and private sector entities including state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and (ii) certain implicitly guaranteed SOEs debt, namely: (a) Energy Sector Levy Act (ESLA) debt in the energy sector; (b) Ghana Educational Trust Fund (GETFund/Daakye) debt for education infrastructure; (c) d","cbCaicSijjKwGnFx","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaicSijjKwGnFx","pdf",1030819,1,29,"English","en",105,"# Key risk ratings\n## External debt distress and overall risk\n## Granularity and judgment application\n# Debt restructuring and Memorandum of Understanding\n## Status of domestic debt and Eurobonds\n## Treatment of residual claims of external creditors\n# Baseline outlook and debt ratios\n## Progress versus fiscal deterioration\n## Projected debt indicators by 2028\n# Stress tests and sensitivity analysis\n## Commodity price shocks\n## Role of exports and combined shocks\n# Coverage of the debt sustainability analysis\n## Public and publicly guaranteed debt\n## Explicit and implicit guarantees\n# Main drivers of fiscal risks\n## Financial sector recapitalization costs\n## Energy sector losses and arrears\n# Modeled contingent liabilities\n## Tailored stress tests for SOEs and PPPs","[{\"question\":\"How are external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk rated for Ghana?\",\"answer\":\"Both external debt distress risk and overall risk of debt distress are rated High. Granularity in the risk rating is marked as Sustainable, and judgment application is No.\"},{\"question\":\"What debt restructuring steps have been completed, and what agreements were signed?\",\"answer\":\"Domestic debt restructuring was completed in 2023, and Eurobond restructuring was completed in October 2024. Under the G20 Common Framework Memorandum of Understanding, the MoU was signed by all parties in January 2025 and bilateral agreements are being prepared.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is Ghana’s risk of debt distress expected to decline in the medium term?\",\"answer\":\"Despite high near-term risk from threshold breaches, targeted primary surpluses and favorable assumptions for growth, inflation, and exchange rate support projected reductions in debt ratios. The analysis expects Ghana to reach moderate risk over the medium term, with forward-looking sustainability contingent on completing external restructuring consistent with program parameters.\"}]",1784491275,73,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"ghana-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/ghana-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111690/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"How are external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk rated for Ghana?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Both external debt distress risk and overall risk of debt distress are rated High. Granularity in the risk rating is marked as Sustainable, and judgment application is No.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"What debt restructuring steps have been completed, and what agreements were signed?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Domestic debt restructuring was completed in 2023, and Eurobond restructuring was completed in October 2024. Under the G20 Common Framework Memorandum of Understanding, the MoU was signed by all parties in January 2025 and bilateral agreements are being prepared.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Why is Ghana’s risk of debt distress expected to decline in the medium term?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Despite high near-term risk from threshold breaches, targeted primary surpluses and favorable assumptions for growth, inflation, and exchange rate support projected reductions in debt ratios. The analysis expects Ghana to reach moderate risk over the medium term, with forward-looking sustainability contingent on completing external restructuring consistent with program parameters.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]