[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111217-en":3,"doc-seo-111217-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111217,8796095360427,"Lucas Martin","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_994ba38a5ba835b3df7d355c54d3ed8d",8,"Research & Report","Ghana - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Assessment","Ghana remains in debt distress as ongoing debt restructuring and continued breaches to debt sustainability analysis thresholds indicate external debt is unsustainable. Fiscal and external conditions deteriorated after the COVID-19 shock, tighter global financial conditions, and the war-related disruption from Russia, alongside pre-existing fiscal and debt vulnerabilities. The analysis reviews baseline breaches in key ratios, evaluates domestic and external debt treatment progress, and highlights sensitivity to commodity prices, exports, and exchange-rate shocks. Pending external completion and credible reforms, public debt sustainability remains weak.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAbebe Adugna and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Annalisa Fedelino (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| GHANA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS 1, 2 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Unsustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nGiven the ongoing debt restructuring and large and protracted breaches to the DSA thresholds, Ghana remains in debt distress and the debt sustainability analysis shows that debt is unsustainable, unchanged from the DSA published in May 2023.  \nGhana’s fiscal and external positions deteriorated significantly in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, the tightening in global financial conditions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These external shocks, combined with pre-existing fiscal and debt vulnerabilities, have pushed public and external debt up. Ghana lost international market access in late 2021, and the macroeconomic situation became more challenging in 2022, with large losses in international reserves, sharp depreciation of the exchange rate and soaring inflation, an increase in Eurobond spreads to distressed levels, and extremely constrained domestic financing conditions. In this context, the authorities requested support from the IMF in July 2022. They hired financial and legal advisors; and in December 2022, they launched a debt  \n1 This DSA is prepared in line with the Guidance Note of the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries, February 2018.  \n2 The Composite Indicator (CI) score of 2.75 remains between the cut-off values for weak and strong debt-carrying capacity, 2.69 and 3. 05, respectively. The CI is the weighted average of the 10-year average of the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) score and macroeconomic variables from the April 2023 WEO vintage.  \nrestructuring covering domestic debt as well as external commercial and official bilateral debt and announced a standstill on external debt service to all but multilateral creditors. On the domestic debt front, the authorities completed their domestic debt restructuring over the summer 2023. On the external side, the authorities expect to rapidly reach agreement with the Official Creditor Committee under the G20’s Common Framework on the terms of a debt treatment in line with the financing assurances obtained in May 2023. They have been further advancing discussions with external commercial creditors, and there are good prospects to reach an agreement in the near-term on comparable terms.  \nUnder the baseline, which accounts for the outcome of the domestic debt restructuring and does not incorporate the impact of the contemplated external debt relief, the present value (PV) of external debt-to-GDP breaches its threshold until 2030, while the external debt service-to-revenues exceeds its thresholds throughout the full-time horizon of the DSA. The external debt service-to-exports breaches its thresholds in 2025 for one year and breaches it again in 2029 to remain above it throughout the full remaining horizon. The PV of external debt-to-exports ratio remains below its threshold under the baseline throughout the full-time horizon of the DSA, while breaching the threshold in 2025 and onwards under the exports shock scenario—the most extreme shock for this indicator. The PV of public debt-to-GDP, which reflects the outcome of the domestic debt restructuring, breaches its 55 percent benchmark throughout the fullDSA horizon. Stress test results show that a combined contingent liability shock would put overall public debt well above the current unsustainable trajectory throughout the full DSA horizon. In addition, developments over the past few years and stress tests highlight the sensitivity o","cbCain68JinLyQjy","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCain68JinLyQjy","pdf",865983,1,25,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment summary\n## External debt distress status\n## Public debt and stress tests","[{\"question\":\"Why does the analysis conclude Ghana is still in debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Because ongoing debt restructuring occurs alongside large, protracted breaches of the debt sustainability analysis thresholds, leaving debt sustainability unchanged from the prior assessment.\"},{\"question\":\"What major shocks worsened Ghana’s fiscal and external positions?\",\"answer\":\"The COVID-19 pandemic, tightening global financial conditions, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, combined with earlier fiscal and debt vulnerabilities.\"},{\"question\":\"Which debt indicators breach thresholds under the baseline?\",\"answer\":\"External debt service-to-revenues exceeds thresholds across the forecast horizon, and external debt service-to-exports breaches in 2025 (for one year) and again in 2029; public debt-to-GDP breaches its benchmark throughout the horizon.\"}]",1784489160,63,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"ghana-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/ghana-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-assessment/111217/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"Why does the analysis conclude Ghana is still in debt distress?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Because ongoing debt restructuring occurs alongside large, protracted breaches of the debt sustainability analysis thresholds, leaving debt sustainability unchanged from the prior assessment.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"What major shocks worsened Ghana’s fiscal and external positions?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"The COVID-19 pandemic, tightening global financial conditions, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, combined with earlier fiscal and debt vulnerabilities.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Which debt indicators breach thresholds under the baseline?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"External debt service-to-revenues exceeds thresholds across the forecast horizon, and external debt service-to-exports breaches in 2025 (for one year) and again in 2029; public debt-to-GDP breaches its benchmark throughout the horizon.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]