[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-120207-en":3,"doc-seo-120207-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":27,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},120207,687197207639,"Asher","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","Forecasting US Presidential Election 2024 using Multiple Machine Learning Algorithms","The study examines how the US presidential election outcome influences global trade, investment, and geopolitical policy, as well as setting economic and political direction for the following years. It forecasts the popular vote share for the incumbent party candidate in the 2024 election by using Lasso for feature selection among economic and non-economic indicators. Selected variables are then modeled with Lasso, random forest, and gradient boosting. Results indicate that Gallup ratings, scandal ratings, oil price, unemployment indicators, and crime rates are key drivers. The Lasso model produces the most consistent estimates, forecasting Kamala Harris’ popular vote share at 47.04%.","Munich Personal RePEc Archive  \nForecasting US Presidential Election 2024 using multiple machine learning algorithms  \nSinha, Pankaj and Kumar, Amit and Biswas, Sumana and Gupta, Chirag  \nFaculty of Management Studies, University of Delhi  \n20 October 2024  \nOnline at [https://mpra. ub. uni-muenchen. de/122490/](https://mpra. ub. uni-muenchen. de/122490/)  \n[MPRA Paper No. 122490](MPRA Paper No. 122490) , [posted 26 Oct 2024 00:22 UTC](posted 26 Oct 2024 00:22 UTC)  \nForecasting US Presidential Election 2024 Using Multiple Machine Learning Algorithms  \nPankaj Sinha, Amit Kumar, Chirag Gupta, Sumana Biswas  \nFaculty of Management Studies  \nUniversity of Delhi  \nABSTRACT  \nThe outcome of the US presidential election is one of the most significant events that impacts trade, investment, and geopolitical policies on the global stage. It also sets the direction of the world economy and global politics for the next few years. Hence, it is of prime importance not just for the American population but also to shape the future well-being of the masses worldwide. Therefore, this study aims to forecast the popular vote share of the incumbent party candidate in the Presidential election of 2024. The study applies the regularization-based machine learning algorithm of Lasso to select the most important economic and non-economic indicators influencing the electorate. The variables identified by lasso were further used with lasso (regularization), random forest (bagging) and gradient boosting (boosting) techniques of machine learning to forecast the popular vote share of the incumbent party candidate in the 2024 US Presidential election. The findings suggest that June Gallup ratings, average Gallup ratings, scandal ratings, oil price indicator, unemployment indicator and crime rate impact the popular vote share of the incumbent party candidate. The prediction made by Lasso emerges as the most consistent estimate of the popular vote share forecast. The lasso-based prediction model forecasts that Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party candidate, will receive a popular vote share of 47 .04% in the 2024 US Presidential Election.  \n1. INTRODUCTION  \nElections worldwide are the true manifestation of people’s power of democracy in action. This process is crucial for the general population's participation in the shaping of governance processes and policies indirectly through the elected representatives and nation leaders. Amongst the most revered elected positions in the world, the post of United States (US) President is placed at the top rung of the political ladder. The person at the helm of affairs as the US president usurps a substantial amount of power not just on the national but on the world stage too. The US president has a large say in determining global policies and thus steers the direction of economic and geopolitical developments at the global level. The US, being the largest economy, confers a significant amount of influence on global trade, investment, exchange rates, inflation, growth rates, etc. The results of the US Presidential elections thus assume significance, especially in the current scenario where the world is grappling with the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. All the more, the result of the upcoming US Presidential elections holds a lot more significance as the geopolitical tensions have heightened in different parts of the Asian continent in the form of the long-stretched Russia-Ukraine war, the sudden increase in the level of direct conflict in the middle-east and the rise of Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea region along with its stance on the sovereignty of Taiwan. The prediction of the upcoming 2024 US Presidential election results has become a key issue as the two candidates contesting the election have very different views on national as well as global issues. The prediction of the 2024 US Presidential elections is based on the key factors influencing the voting behaviour of the US population. The ","cbCaidZ0EX2v9SCa","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaidZ0EX2v9SCa","pdf",414369,1,12,"English","en",105,"# Abstract\n# Introduction\n## Political heuristics and voting behavior\n## Economic and non-economic factors","[{\"question\":\"What does the study aim to forecast for the 2024 US presidential election?\",\"answer\":\"It forecasts the popular vote share of the incumbent party candidate in the 2024 US presidential election.\"},{\"question\":\"Which method is used to identify the most important influencing indicators?\",\"answer\":\"Lasso (regularization-based machine learning) is used to select the most important economic and non-economic indicators.\"},{\"question\":\"Which variables are reported as impacting the popular vote share according to the findings?\",\"answer\":\"The findings highlight June Gallup ratings, average Gallup ratings, scandal ratings, oil price indicator, unemployment indicator, and crime rate as impactful variables.\"}]","Forecasting US Presidential Election 2024 using Multiple Machine Learning Algorithms | PDF",1785728725,30,{"code":4,"msg":31,"data":32},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":33,"title":13,"keywords":34,"description":14,"schema_data":35,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":28},"forecasting-us-presidential-election-2024-using-multiple-machine-learning-algorithms","",{"@graph":36,"@context":85},[37,54,68],{"@type":38,"itemListElement":39},"BreadcrumbList",[40,44,48,51],{"item":41,"name":42,"@type":43,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":45,"name":46,"@type":43,"position":47},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":49,"name":12,"@type":43,"position":50},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":43,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/forecasting-us-presidential-election-2024-using-multiple-machine-learning-algorithms/120207/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":41,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-08-03",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What does the study aim to forecast for the 2024 US presidential election?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"It forecasts the popular vote share of the incumbent party candidate in the 2024 US presidential election.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which method is used to identify the most important influencing indicators?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Lasso (regularization-based machine learning) is used to select the most important economic and non-economic indicators.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Which variables are reported as impacting the popular vote share according to the findings?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The findings highlight June Gallup ratings, average Gallup ratings, scandal ratings, oil price indicator, unemployment indicator, and crime rate as impactful variables.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":47,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":29,"slug":121},"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]