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The issue also covers confirmed recession signals using employment, industrial production, leading and coincident indexes, and the consumer price index trends, with detailed monthly data and interpretations.",{"@graph":14,"@context":73},[15,34,56],{"@type":16,"itemListElement":17},"BreadcrumbList",[18,23,27,31],{"item":19,"name":20,"@type":21,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",1,{"item":24,"name":25,"@type":21,"position":26},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":28,"name":29,"@type":21,"position":30},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/","Research & 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publication focus is described in FinanceFacts?","Question",{"text":63,"@type":64},"FinanceFacts focuses on consumer financial behavior and how consumer credit and major economic indicators relate to recession dynamics and consumer distress.","Answer",{"name":66,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":67},"How does the report characterize the consumer sector’s short-term financial condition?",{"text":68,"@type":64},"It concludes that the consumer sector’s net short-term financial condition has changed little over the past generation, rather than worsening as a simple borrowing-to-debt-burden chain would suggest.",{"name":70,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":71},"Which economic areas are used to confirm the recession?",{"text":72,"@type":64},"The report uses indicators including gross national product projections, industrial production, total employment, leading and coincident indexes, and the consumer price index to describe recession onset and 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Consumer Financial Behavior  \nRatio of Consumer Installment Credit Outstandingto Consumer Sector's Liquid Assets  \n196819691973197619771978197919801981Source:Federal Reserve Board,National Consumer Pinance Assoc.  \nAs the economy enters its secondrecession in less than 24 months(seeinside of this report),questions inevi-tably arise about the financial condi-tion of the large and important consumersector.   Consumer installment creditoutstanding rose rapidly 1976-79,andthe number of personal bankruptcies hassoared since late 1979 --a period whichincludes a ful1 recession.Taken toge-ther,but apart from other informationabout causes of business cycles orpersonal bankruptcies,these trendsmight suggest the possibility of animportant causal connection running fromborrowing to debt burden to recession tobankruptcy.  However,a closer look atthe numbers reveals that the consumersector's net short-term financial condi-tion has changed little over the past  \nJanuary 1982  \ngeneration.  Rather than the aforemen-tioned causal connection,this suggeststwo important contrary conclusions:1)instead of being \"overburdened\"withshort-term debt the consumer sectorappears no worse off today and no lessable to contribute to economic recoveryin 1982 than in prior recessionaryperiods;and 2)the search for causes ofthe post-1979 bankruptcy phenomenonshould concentrate on other factors suchas legal changes.  \nIn current dollar terms consumerinstallment credit outstanding increasedfrom $44 billion in the third quarter of1960 to more than $326 billion in thethird quarter of 1981,a compound growthrate of 10 percent over the period.Growth in the period 1976 through 1979was at a 16 percent rate compounded.  \nIndex ofIndustrial Productionby monthe (seasonaliy adjusted)1973-1981  \nSource;Board of Governors of thePederal Reserve System  \n## Total Employment\n\nRECESSION CONFIRMED  \nA variety of economic indicators now appear tobe confirming the onset of the economy's eighthrecession since World War II and the second in asmany years.  The most comprehensive indicator cur-rent1y available is the Commerce Department's pro-jection for gross national product(GNP)which theDepartment's_Bureau of Economic Analysis released inDecember.  The figures show a sharp decline in theeconomy in 1981's fourth quarter,with real(inflation-adjusted)GNP projected to fall at a  \n5.4%rate on an annual basis.  If borne out,adecline at this rate would be the sharpest setbackfor the economy since real GNP declined at a 9.9%annual rate in 1980's second quarter during the lastrecession.Other indicators of the unfolding reces-sion are detailed in the remainder of this report.  \n## INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION\n\nIndustrial production,which peaked in July,fel1 an estimated 2.1%in November,following smal-ler declines of 0.2%in August,1.2%in September,and 1.4%in October.   According to the FederalReserve Board,declines were widespread again inNovember with large cutbacks in output of consumerdurable goods,construction supplies,business equip-ment,and both durable and nondurable materials.Industrial production in November was 146.5%of its1967 average,still somewhat above 140.1%recordedin July 1980,the trough of the last recession.  \nAccording to the Federal Reserve,output ofconsumer goods fel1 sharply in November,as produc-tion of durable consumer goods dropped substan-tially.  Auto assemblies,at an annual rate of 4.8million units,were almost 13%below their Octoberrate;output of home goods fel¹by more than 5%,reflecting a deep cut in the production of appli-ances.Output of consumer nondurable goods declinedonly a little.  \n## EMPLOYMENT\n\nLike industrial production,total employmentcontinued to decline in November.  The Bureau ofLabor Statistics reported total employment at 98.0million in November(seasonally adjusted),down940,000 from July and the lowest level since Feb-ruary.  Adu1t men made up 70%of the July-Novemberemployment reduction,and teenagers accounted forthe ","cbCaimnHRruQ416P","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaimnHRruQ416P","pdf",1177381,"English","# RECESSION CONFIRMED\n## Total Employment\n## INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION\n## EMPLOYMENT\n## INDEXES OF LEADING AND COINCIDENT INDICATORS\n## CONSUMER PRICE INDEX\n## CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT","[{\"question\":\"What issue’s publication focus is described in FinanceFacts?\",\"answer\":\"FinanceFacts focuses on consumer financial behavior and how consumer credit and major economic indicators relate to recession dynamics and consumer distress.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the report characterize the consumer sector’s short-term financial condition?\",\"answer\":\"It concludes that the consumer sector’s net short-term financial condition has changed little over the past generation, rather than worsening as a simple borrowing-to-debt-burden chain would suggest.\"},{\"question\":\"Which economic areas are used to confirm the recession?\",\"answer\":\"The report uses indicators including gross national product projections, industrial production, total employment, leading and coincident indexes, and the consumer price index to describe recession onset and progression.\"}]","FinanceFacts - January 1982 - Monthly Publication on Consumer Financial Behavior | PDF",1789969027,13]