[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-113237-en":3,"doc-seo-113237-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},113237,5909877438554,"Maeve","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/5600025385ad2bf12a7?_k=1778553567797529272",8,"Research & Report","Fertility Following Natural Disasters and Epidemics in Africa - Article Summary","This paper uses dozens of large-scale household surveys to estimate how fertility changes after natural disasters and epidemics in Africa from 1980 to 2016. Droughts produce the largest and most persistent effects, lowering fertility by about 3.5–6.8% in the five years after droughts. Other disasters show smaller or less clear fertility shifts. Effects vary geographically and depend on disaster characteristics and respondent profiles, with fertility decreasing after epidemics for women near career transitions.","Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized  \nThe World Bank Economic Review, 36(4), 2022, 955–971  \n[https://doi.org10.1093/wber/lhac011](https://doi.org10.1093/wber/lhac011)  \nArticle  \nFertility Following Natural Disasters and Epidemicsin Africa  \nJohannes Norling   \nAbstract  \nThis paper uses dozens of large-scale household surveys to measure average changes in fertility following hundreds of droughts, floods, earthquakes, tropical cyclones, other storms, and epidemics in Africa between 1980 and 2016 . Droughts are the largest and longest-lasting type of disaster on average, and fertility decreases by between 3.5 and 6.8 percent in the five years after droughts. Fertility changes are smaller or less clear after other types of disasters. Comparisons between countries, rather than within countries, drive these findings. There is substantial geographic heterogeneity in the direction and magnitude of the changes in fertility after disasters, driven by characteristics of the disasters and survey respondents. Fertility decreases especially after more recent droughts and in areas prone to drought. Fertility also decreases after longer floods. Fertility decreases after epidemics for women near the start and end of their childbearing careers, but increases for women in their late twenties and early thirties.  \nJEL classification: I15, J13, Q54  \nKeywords: fertility, natural disasters, epidemics, Africa  \n1. Introduction  \nGlobal climate models project that recent changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level will continue for at least the next several decades. These climate changes bring greater risk of droughts, floods, storms, disease, and other disasters, particularly for less developed countries, many of which are located in Africa (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2012; Dellink, Lanzi, and Chateau 2019) . Africa also has the highest fertility rate of any region of the world, and is projected to continue to have the highest fertility rate past 2050 (World Bank 2020). Understanding the relationship between natural disasters and fertility in Africa is therefore necessary for projecting the consequences of continued climate change, particularly for women, who bear most of the costs of having and raising children (Bloom et al. 2009; Jayachandranand Lleras-Muney 2009) .  \nJohannes Norling is an associate professor in the Department of Economics, Mount Holyoke College, South Hadley, Massachusetts, USA; and a research fellow in the Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, Western Cape, South Africa. His email address is [jnorling@mtholyoke.edu. Lu Yu provided](jnorling@mtholyoke.edu. Lu Yu provided) excellent research assistance. Thankyou to the editor and two anonymous referees, and to Joshua Hyman, Steven Schmeiser, seminar participants at Columbia University and Colorado College, and conference participants at the African Economic History Network Annual Meeting, Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting, and Liberal Arts Colleges Development Economics Conference. A Supplementary Online Appendix is available with this article at the World Bank Economic Review website.  \n© The Author(s) 2022 . Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK.  \nAll rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: [journals.permissions@oup.com](journals.permissions@oup.com)  \nDownloaded from [https://academic.oup.com/wber/article/36/4/955/6658487 by Sectoral Library Rm MC-C3-220 user on](https://academic.oup.com/wber/article/36/4/955/6658487 by Sectoral Library Rm MC-C3-220 user on) 10 December 2023  \n956 Norling  \nThis paper documents average changes in fertility following 91 droughts, 399 floods, 21 earthquakes, 27 tropical cyclones, 55 other storms, and 355 epidemics that occurred in Africa between 1980 and 2016 and are recorded in the Emergency Events Database. This study identifies the district or districts in","cbCaigTaMyYHMmBR","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaigTaMyYHMmBR","pdf",707296,1,17,"English","en",105,"# Introduction\n## Data and identification strategy\n## Main results on droughts\n## Results for floods, storms, earthquakes, and epidemics\n## Interpretation and heterogeneity","[{\"question\":\"How does the paper measure fertility changes after disasters?\",\"answer\":\"It compares the average change in the number of births in the five years after a disaster with the five years before, using women observed within a 10-year window around the event. The study then contrasts this with women who did not experience a disaster but lived in districts that experienced the same disaster type at other times between 1980 and 2016.\"},{\"question\":\"What disaster type has the largest impact on fertility?\",\"answer\":\"Droughts. They are described as the largest and longest-lasting disaster category on average, and fertility decreases by about 3.5–6.8% in the five years following droughts.\"},{\"question\":\"Do epidemics always reduce fertility for all women?\",\"answer\":\"No. The paper reports that fertility decreases after epidemics for women near the start and end of their childbearing careers, but fertility increases for women in their late twenties and early thirties.\"}]",1784501748,43,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"fertility-following-natural-disasters-and-epidemics-in-africa-article-summary","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/fertility-following-natural-disasters-and-epidemics-in-africa-article-summary/113237/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"How does the paper measure fertility changes after disasters?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"It compares the average change in the number of births in the five years after a disaster with the five years before, using women observed within a 10-year window around the event. The study then contrasts this with women who did not experience a disaster but lived in districts that experienced the same disaster type at other times between 1980 and 2016.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What disaster type has the largest impact on fertility?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Droughts. They are described as the largest and longest-lasting disaster category on average, and fertility decreases by about 3.5–6.8% in the five years following droughts.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Do epidemics always reduce fertility for all women?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"No. The paper reports that fertility decreases after epidemics for women near the start and end of their childbearing careers, but fertility increases for women in their late twenties and early thirties.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]