[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111600-en":3,"doc-seo-111600-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111600,687197207639,"Asher","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","Federal Republic of Somalia - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis","This Low-Income Countries Debt Sustainability Analysis updates the November 2024 LIC-DSA for Somalia by extending the assumed World Bank grant coverage to June 2028, revising future debt service payments after debt relief agreements signed by April 2025, and incorporating updated macroeconomic forecasts. Somalia faces moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress. Public debt is projected to rise slightly in 2025, with a stable public debt-to-GDP ratio and external debt remaining dominant, though a stress scenario breaches the external debt service-to-revenue indicative threshold due to higher debt service costs from new borrowing triggered by shocks. The update highlights vulnerabilities and the need to strengthen revenue mobilization, fiscal anchors, and debt management institutions.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA) , and Thanos Arvanitis and Allison Holland (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF SOMALIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Substantial space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThis Low-Income Countries Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA) provides an update to the November 2024 LICDSA, adding three elements: (i) the assumed grant extension by the World Bank until June 2028 from June 2025 previously, (ii) updates to future debt service payments, following debt relief agreements signed as of April 2025, and (iii) updated macroeconomic forecasts. These factors do not materially affect the risk rating relative to the November 2024 LIC-DSA. Somalia is assessed to be at moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress. Total public debt is projected to increase marginally to US$1,124 .4 million in 2025 from US$1,111 .3 million in 2024, with the public debt-to-GDP ratio largely stable at 8.6 percent in 2025. Most public debt is external. The present value (PV) of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt is estimated at 4.9 percent of GDP in 2025 – below the 30 percent threshold for countries like Somalia with weak debt carrying capacity.1 However, the LIC-DSA involves a breach of the external debt service-to-revenue indicative threshold in the stress scenario. This is primarily driven by the expected increase in debt service cost associated with future new borrowings, which are in turn triggered by shocks to other non-debt creating flows (current transfers and FDI) . Somalia is mechanically assessed to have substantial space to absorb shocks. However, the country continues to be vulnerable to security, international commodity price, slower global growth, and climate shocks. It is highly dependent on external financial assistance—broader and more  \n1 This LIC-DSA update reflects Somalia’s weak debt carrying capacity considering Somalia’s Composite Indicator of 1.71, based on the April 2025 World Economic Outlook and the 2023 CPIA vintage.  \npersistent declines in foreign aid could thus have a significant economic impact. These vulnerabilities underscore the importance of accelerating domestic revenue mobilization, adopting a credible medium-term fiscal anchor to ensure sustainability, and strengthening debt management institutions and institutional capacity.  \n1. The public debt perimeter is the central government. Debt reconciliation missions in 2020 and 2023 under the HIPC process have ensured near complete coverage of public debt. 2 There is no government guaranteed debt, there are no known liabilities of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) or subnational governments, and no public-private partnerships (PPPs) . Default settings are accordingly calibrated for the LIC-DSA contingent liability stress test (Text Table 1) . Somalia’s domestic financial institutions and local capital markets are not yet developed, and as such there is no domestic public debt aside from legacy government wage arrears.3 External debt for the LIC-DSA is defined on a residency basis.  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n|  |\n| Sources: Somali Authorities and IMF staff estimates. |\n\n2. The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) continues to strengthen its debt management capacity with the support of technical assistance from international partners. The Ministry of Finance established a Debt Management Unit (DMU) in December 2015. The AfDB financed the installation of a debt recording system and provided training to staff in the unit, primarily to support the reconstruction of loan records. The debt recording system has been upgraded to the Commonwealth Meridien System, which is a","cbCaibpga8LEUAHv","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaibpga8LEUAHv","pdf",786013,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment overview\n## External debt distress and overall risk\n## Stress scenario and indicative thresholds\n# Update methodology and key assumptions\n## Grant extension and debt service revisions\n## Updated macroeconomic forecasts\n# Debt outlook and key indicators\n## Public debt stock and debt-to-GDP\n## External debt PV and risk interpretation\n# Debt management capacity\n## Debt Management Unit (DMU) and systems\n## Bulletins, reports, and planned strategy\n# Vulnerabilities and policy implications\n## Shocks and dependence on external assistance\n## Recommendations for sustainability","[{\"question\":\"What updated elements are included in this LIC-DSA compared with the November 2024 update?\",\"answer\":\"It assumes a World Bank grant extension to June 2028, updates future debt service payments after April 2025 debt relief agreements, and uses updated macroeconomic forecasts. These changes do not materially alter the overall risk rating versus the prior update.\"},{\"question\":\"How is Somalia’s risk of debt distress assessed in the report?\",\"answer\":\"Somalia is assessed to have moderate risk of external debt distress and moderate risk of overall public debt distress. The stress scenario includes a breach of the external debt service-to-revenue indicative threshold.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the stress scenario breach the external debt service-to-revenue threshold?\",\"answer\":\"The breach is driven by higher expected debt service costs linked to future new borrowings. Those borrowings are triggered by shocks to other non-debt creating flows, including current transfers and FDI.\"}]",1784490857,55,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"federal-republic-of-somalia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/federal-republic-of-somalia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis/111600/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What updated elements are included in this LIC-DSA compared with the November 2024 update?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"It assumes a World Bank grant extension to June 2028, updates future debt service payments after April 2025 debt relief agreements, and uses updated macroeconomic forecasts. These changes do not materially alter the overall risk rating versus the prior update.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"How is Somalia’s risk of debt distress assessed in the report?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Somalia is assessed to have moderate risk of external debt distress and moderate risk of overall public debt distress. The stress scenario includes a breach of the external debt service-to-revenue indicative threshold.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Why does the stress scenario breach the external debt service-to-revenue threshold?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The breach is driven by higher expected debt service costs linked to future new borrowings. Those borrowings are triggered by shocks to other non-debt creating flows, including current transfers and FDI.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]