[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111096-en":3,"doc-seo-111096-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},111096,1099513958762,"Logic","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1000023916a998db790?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1784791008015729253",8,"Research & Report","Federal Republic of Somalia - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate risk assessment","Low-Income Countries Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA) provides a streamlined update for Somalia, incorporating new 2025 budget support from the World Bank, requested augmentation of access under the ECF program, planned external borrowing in the medium term, and refreshed macroeconomic forecasts and debt-relief negotiation assumptions. Somalia remains assessed at moderate risk for both external and overall public debt distress, with public debt projected to rise marginally and the external debt PV staying below indicative thresholds. A breach occurs only under stress due to higher debt service triggered by shocks to non-debt flows. Continued reliance on external assistance and vulnerabilities to security, commodity prices, global growth, and climate shocks motivate revenue mobilization, a credible fiscal anchor, and stronger debt management and institutions.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA) , and Thanos Arvanitis and Allison Holland (IMF),  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF SOMALIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Substantial space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThis Low-Income Countries Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA) provides a streamlined update to the June 2025 LIC-DSA, with four new elements: (i) a US$50 million increase in budget support grant by the World Bank in 2025 as part of the IDA21 allocations , (ii) the authorities’ requested augmentation of access under the ECF program, (iii) planned external borrowing over the medium term, and (iv) updates to debt relief negotiations as well as macroeconomic forecasts. These factors do not change Somalia’s moderate risk rating for external and overall public debt distress, as assessed in the June 2025 LIC-DSA. Total public debt is projected to increase marginally to US$1,155 .2 million in 2025 from US$1,117 .2 million in 2024, with the public debt-to-GDP ratio largely stable at 8.9 percent in 2025. Most public debt is external. The present value (PV) of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt is estimated at 4.6 percent of GDP in 2025—below the 30 percent threshold for countries like Somalia with weak debt carrying capacity.1 However, the LIC-DSA involves a breach of the external debt service-to-revenue indicative threshold in the stress scenario, driven primarily by the increase in debt service associated with future new borrowings, which are in turn triggered by shocks to other non-debt creating flows (current transfers and FDI) . Somalia is mechanically assessed to have substantial space to absorb shocks. However, the country continues to be vulnerable to security, commodity price, slower global growth, and climate shocks. It is highly dependent on external financial assistance—broader and more persistent declines in foreign aid could thus have a significant economic impact. These  \n1 This LIC-DSA update reflects Somalia’s weak debt carrying capacity considering Somalia’s Composite Indicator of 1.71, based on the April 2025 World Economic Outlook and the 2023 CPIA vintage.  \nvulnerabilities underscore the importance of accelerating domestic revenue mobilization, adopting a credible mediumterm fiscal anchor to ensure sustainability, and strengthening debt management and broader institutional capacity.  \n1. The public debt perimeter comprises the central government and the central bank. Debt reconciliation missions in 2020 and 2023 under the HIPC process have ensured near complete coverage of public debt.2 There have been no government guaranteed debt, no known liabilities of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) or subnational governments, nor public-private partnerships (PPPs) . The central bank has a US$ 42 million debt owed to the IMF from the portion of the 2020-23 ECF arrangement that was used for reserve accumulation.3 Given the early stage of discussions and limited detail, a planned external borrowing by the government for infrastructure development is incorporated in the LIC-DSA contingent liability stress test, in addition to the default settings (Text Table 1) .4 Somalia’s domestic financial institutions and local capital markets are not yet developed, and as such there is no domestic public debt aside from legacy government wage arrears.5 External debt for the LIC-DSA is defined on a residency basis.  \nA. Please select \"X\" for each subsector of the public sector below when it is covered in your public debt data.  \n\n|  |  Subsectors of the public sector Check box \u003Cbr>Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the ","cbCaiiH2XOqQDHi3","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiiH2XOqQDHi3","pdf",764992,3,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment summary\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall public debt distress risk\n## Stress scenario and indicative thresholds\n# Debt outlook and key assumptions\n## Public debt projections and debt-to-GDP\n## External debt PV and thresholds\n## Contingent liability tailored stress test\n# Public debt perimeter and coverage\n## Central government and central bank\n## HIPC reconciliation coverage\n## Domestic debt definition and contingent liability treatment\n# Public sector debt data subsectors\n## Coverage check requirements\n## Guarantees and SOE debt elements","[{\"question\":\"What is Somalia’s risk level for external and overall public debt distress in this LIC-DSA update?\",\"answer\":\"Both external debt distress risk and overall risk of debt distress are assessed as moderate. This assessment is consistent with the June 2025 LIC-DSA update.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the LIC-DSA stress scenario breach the external debt service-to-revenue indicative threshold?\",\"answer\":\"The breach is driven mainly by higher debt service associated with future new borrowings. Those borrowings are triggered by shocks to other non-debt creating flows, including current transfers and FDI.\"},{\"question\":\"What changes were incorporated in the updated LIC-DSA for 2025 compared with the June 2025 version?\",\"answer\":\"The update includes a US$50 million increase in World Bank budget support grants in 2025, the authorities’ requested augmentation of ECF access, planned external borrowing over the medium term, and updates to debt relief negotiations and macroeconomic forecasts.\"}]","Federal Republic of Somalia - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate risk assessment | PDF",1784488566,48,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"federal-republic-of-somalia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,51],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/federal-republic-of-somalia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment/111096/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is Somalia’s risk level for external and overall public debt distress in this LIC-DSA update?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"Both external debt distress risk and overall risk of debt distress are assessed as moderate. This assessment is consistent with the June 2025 LIC-DSA update.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Why does the LIC-DSA stress scenario breach the external debt service-to-revenue indicative threshold?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"The breach is driven mainly by higher debt service associated with future new borrowings. Those borrowings are triggered by shocks to other non-debt creating flows, including current transfers and FDI.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"What changes were incorporated in the updated LIC-DSA for 2025 compared with the June 2025 version?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"The update includes a US$50 million increase in World Bank budget support grants in 2025, the authorities’ requested augmentation of ECF access, planned external borrowing over the medium term, and updates to debt relief negotiations and macroeconomic forecasts.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":138},"General","general"]