[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-135379-en":3,"doc-seo-135379-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},135379,1099514067438,"River Wang","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/100002539ee87300030?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1780474512215547542",8,"Research & Report","Extinction: bad genes or bad luck?","Extinction of species and higher taxa is commonly treated as an evolutionary force, yet evidence from the fossil record can be explained by non-selective processes driven by randomness. The study evaluates two models: a time-homogeneous birth–death framework and a scenario of intermittent catastrophic extermination of large numbers of species. Current knowledge does not make either model mathematically plausible, suggesting either true selectivity in extinction or errors in estimates of past diversity and evolutionary turnover.","# Extinction:bad genes or bad luck?\n\nby David M.RAUP,  \nGeology Department,Field Museum of Natural History,Chicago,Illinois 60605,USA.  \n## SUMMARY\n\nExtinctionof species and higher taxa is generally seenas aconstructive force inevolution because it is assumed that the better adapted organisms are most likelyto survive.It is possible,however,that most extinction is non-selective and thatchanges observed in the taxonomic composition of the biota are the result ofrandom effects.Two scenarios for non-selective extinction are evaluated:oneuses a time homogeneous birth-death model and the other postulates intermittent,catastrophic extermination of large numbers of species.In the present state ofknowledge,neither scenario is mathematically plausible.This may be becauseextinction is,in fact,selective or it may be that our estimates of past diversitiesand evolutionary turnover rates are faulty.If extinction is selective,the timehomogeneous model suggests that trilobites had species durations 14 to 28percent shorter than normal for Paleozoic marine invertebrates.  \n## RESUMEN\n\nLa extincion de especies y taxones superiores se ve generalmente como unafuerza constructiva en evolución,ya que se supone que los organismos mejoradaptados sobreviven mas facilmente.Es posible,sinembargo,que gran parte dela extinción no sea selectiva y que los cambios observados en la composicióntaxonomica de la biota sean el resultado de efectos aleatorios.Eneste trabajo seevaluan dos guiones para la extinción no selectiva:uno utiliza un modelo detiempo de nacimiento-muerte homogeneo y el otro postula exterminacionesintermitentes,catastroficas de gran número de especies.Enel estado actual denuestros conocimientos,ninguno de estos dos guiones es matematicamenteplausible.Esto podria ser debido a que la extinciónes,de hecho,selectiva,obienpodria serque nuestras estimaciones delas diversidades delpasadoylas tasasdeavance evolutivo fueran erróneas.  \nSi la extinción es selectiva,el modelo de tiempo homogeneo sugiere que losTrilobites abarcan especiescon duracionesdel14 al28por ciento mas cortas quelo normal para los invertebrados marinos del Paleozoico.  \n## RESUM\n\nLextincio despecies i taxons superiors es veu generalment com una forcaconstructiva en Ievolució,puix que suposa que els organismes millor adaptatssobreviuen mes facilment.Es posible,tanmateix,que gran part de Pextincio nosigui selectivaique els canvis observats en la composicio taxonomica dela biotasiguin el resultat defectes aleatoris.En aquest treballs'avaluen dos guions per aPextincio no selectiva:un utilitza un model de temps de naixement-morthomogeni i Paltre postula exterminacions intermitents,catastrofiques de granquantitat despecies.En Pestat actual dels nostres coneixements,capdambdosguions es matematicament plausible.Aixòpodria esserdegut a que Pextincio es,de fet,selectiva,o bé podria ser que les nostres estimacions de les diversitats delpassat i les taxes daveng evolutiu son erronies.  \nSiPextinció es selectiva,el model de temps homogeni suggereix que dintre elsTrilobits es troben especies amb durades del 14 al28 per cent més curtes que elnormal en els invetebrats marins del Paleozoic.  \n## INTRODUCTION\n\nIn the fossil record,extinction of species and higher taxais so common that extinction must play a significant role in theevolutionary process.Virtually all species that have everlived are now extinct.The paleontological literature containsa variety ofestimates of species extinction rates but most fallwithin a fairly narrow range.Most observed or calculatedmean durations are less than 10 million years:Simpson(1952)suggested that the means for all fossil groups rangefrom one-half to five million years;Valentine(1970)estima-ted five to ten million years for marine invertebrates;andRaup(1978 a)calculated an average of 11.1 million years formean species duration of marine invertebrates.Most analy-ses based on single taxonomic groups also yield estimateswithin this range:six million years for echin","cbCaie9l6vnIOPj9","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaie9l6vnIOPj9","pdf",1068822,2,1,9,"English","en",105,"# SUMMARY\n# INTRODUCTION","[{\"question\":\"为什么很多进化学研究把灭绝看作是“建设性力量”？\",\"answer\":\"因为通常假定更适应的生物更容易存活，从而灭绝能推动更高层级的适应性演化。文中指出这种观点在进化古生物学中很普遍。\"},{\"question\":\"论文评估了哪些关于非选择性灭绝的情景？\",\"answer\":\"评估了两种情景：一种使用时间齐次的出生-死亡模型，另一种假设在间歇期发生对大量物种的灾难性清除。\"},{\"question\":\"为什么作者认为这两种情景在当前状态下并不成立？\",\"answer\":\"在现有知识条件下，两种情景都不够数学上可行。原因可能是灭绝实际上是选择性的，或是对过去多样性与进化周转率的估计存在偏差。\"}]","Extinction: bad genes or bad luck? | PDF",1787310438,23,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"extinction-bad-genes-or-bad-luck","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,48,51],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",{"item":49,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":50},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/extinction-bad-genes-or-bad-luck/135379/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-08-24","2026-08-21",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"为什么很多进化学研究把灭绝看作是“建设性力量”？","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"因为通常假定更适应的生物更容易存活，从而灭绝能推动更高层级的适应性演化。文中指出这种观点在进化古生物学中很普遍。","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"论文评估了哪些关于非选择性灭绝的情景？",{"text":81,"@type":77},"评估了两种情景：一种使用时间齐次的出生-死亡模型，另一种假设在间歇期发生对大量物种的灾难性清除。",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"为什么作者认为这两种情景在当前状态下并不成立？",{"text":85,"@type":77},"在现有知识条件下，两种情景都不够数学上可行。原因可能是灭绝实际上是选择性的，或是对过去多样性与进化周转率的估计存在偏差。","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,128,131,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]