[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-56283-en":3,"doc-seo-56283-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":83},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},56283,4810365810221,"Aurora","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d",8,"Research & Report","Evidence Based Technical Analysis Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals","Evidence-Based Technical Analysis applies the scientific method and statistical inference to trading signals, emphasizing objective rules and their evaluation. The work critiques subjective technical analysis and builds methodological, psychological, philosophical, and statistical foundations for assessing nonrandom price motion. It covers statistical analysis techniques including hypothesis tests and confidence intervals, and addresses data-mining bias as a key threat to objective technical analysis. Case studies for signal rules related to the S&P 500 illustrate results, future directions, and statistical validation.","Evidence-Based Technical Analysis  \nFounded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publishing company in the United States. With offices in North America, Europe, Australia and Asia, Wiley is globally committed to developing and marketing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ professional and personal knowledge and understanding.  \nThe Wiley Trading series features books by traders who have survived the market’s ever changing temperament and have prospered—some by reinventing systems, others by getting back to basics. Whether a novice trader, professional or somewhere in-between, these books will provide the advice and strategies needed to prosper today and well into the future.  \nFor a list of available titles, please visit our Web site at www.Wiley [Finance.com](Finance.com).  \nEvidence-Based Technical Analysis  \nApplying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals  \nDAVID R . ARONSON  \nJohn Wiley & Sons, Inc.  \nCopyright © 2007 by David R. Aronson. All rights reserved.  \nPublished by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.  \nPublished simultaneously in Canada.  \nNo part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923,(978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600, or on the web at [www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be](www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be)[ ](www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be)[addressed to the Permissions Department](addressed to the Permissions Department), [John Wiley & Sons](John Wiley & Sons), Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030,(201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at [http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions](http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions).  \nLimit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents ofthis book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.  \nFor general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762-2974, outside the United States at (317) 572-3993 or fax  \n(317) 572-4002.  \nWiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. For more information about Wiley products, [visit our web site at www.wiley.com](visit our web site at www.wiley.com). Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:  \nAronson, David R., 1945–  \nEvidence-based technical analysis : applying the scientific method and statistical inference to trading signals / David R. Aronson.  \n[p. cm](p. cm).—(Wiley trading series)  \nIncludes bibliographical references and index.  \nISBN-13: 978-0-470-00874-4 (cloth)  \nISBN-10: 0-470-00874-1 (cloth)  \n1. Investment analysis. I. Title. II. Series.  \nHG4529.A77 2007  \n332.63'2042—dc22  \n2006014664  \nPrinted in the United States of America.  \n10 9 8 7 6 5 4 ","cbCaigUuwO7LWCV3","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaigUuwO7LWCV3","pdf",3130487,1,528,"English","en",105,"# Acknowledgments\n# About the Author\n# Introduction\n# Objective Rules and Their Evaluation\n# The Illusory Validity of Subjective Technical Analysis\n# The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis\n# Statistical Analysis\n# Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals\n# Data-Mining Bias: The Fool’s Gold of Objective TA\n# Theories of Nonrandom Price Motion\n# Case Study of Rule Data Mining for the S&P 500\n# Case Study Results and the Future of TA\n# Appendix\n# Notes\n# Index","[{\"question\":\"What problem does the book highlight regarding data mining in technical analysis?\",\"answer\":\"It explains data-mining bias as “the fool’s gold of objective TA,” showing how statistical artifacts can arise from searching large rule sets without proper safeguards.\"}]",1783806907,1331,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":78,"head_meta":80,"extra_data":82,"updated_unix":27},"evidence-based-technical-analysis-applying-the-scientific-method-and-statistical-inference-to-trading-signals","",{"@graph":35,"@context":77},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/evidence-based-technical-analysis-applying-the-scientific-method-and-statistical-inference-to-trading-signals/56283/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-17","2026-07-11",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What problem does the book highlight regarding data mining in technical analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"It explains data-mining bias as “the fool’s gold of objective TA,” showing how statistical artifacts can arise from searching large rule sets without proper safeguards.","Answer","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":79,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":81,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":84},[85,89,93,97,102,107,112,115,120,123,127],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":86,"show_sort_weight":87,"slug":88},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":90,"show_sort_weight":91,"slug":92},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":98,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":103,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":108,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":109,"show_sort_weight":110,"slug":111},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},30,"research-report",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":118,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":121,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":122},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":124,"slug":126},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":128,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":130},19,"General","general"]