[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111737-en":3,"doc-seo-111737-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111737,1099514067438,"River Wang","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/100002539ee87300030?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1780474512215547542",8,"Research & Report","Ethiopia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Preliminary Analysis","Ethiopia faces political, economic, and humanitarian pressures, and international support weakened during the two-year conflict in Tigray before resuming. Debt repayment risks have intensified due to debt-service bunching in the near to medium term and adverse developments. The analysis concludes Ethiopia’s external debt is unsustainable, largely from prolonged breaches of export-related indicators. After a missed Eurobond interest payment in December 2023, Ethiopia is assessed to be in debt distress, with debt carrying capacity downgraded to “weak” in 2022.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA) and Annalisa Fedelino (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT\u003Cbr>SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS1 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Unsustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nEthiopia faces political, economic, and humanitarian challenges. Support from the international community weakened notably during the two-year conflict in Tigray but is now resuming. Bunching of debt service in the near to medium term and adverse developments have led to the realization of debt repayment risks.  \nEthiopia’s debt is assessed to be unsustainable, mainly due to protracted breaches of exports-related external debt indicators. Following a missed Eurobond interest payment in December 2023, the country is in debt distress. Debt carrying capacity (DCC) was downgraded to “weak” in October 2022.2 Timely implementation of the authorities’reform agenda and debt relief from external creditors are required to alleviate liquidity pressures and restore debt sustainability. The authorities have committed to achieving a moderate risk of debt distress rating by the end of the proposed ECF arrangement. An Official Creditor Committee under the G20 Common Framework was formed in September 2021 and agreed to suspend debt service due in 2023 and 2024 on November 9, 2023. Creditors reiterated their commitment to providing a debt treatment as part of an IMF-supported program.  \n1 This preliminary analysis is based on the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (LICDSF) that was approved in 2017.  \n2 The downgrade to “weak” followed two successive weak signals in April and October 2022. The composite indicator, based on the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) and 2022 World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) data that was published in July 2023, is currently estimated at 2 .31, which indicates a weak DCC.  \n1. Debt coverage under this Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) is consistent with the LIC– DSF guidance and previous DSAs.3 In particular, the DSA includes Federal government debt, the central bank’s debt to the IMF and two bilateral creditors, guaranteed nonfinancial public enterprises’ debt, and non-guaranteed debt of Ethio-Telecom, a major telecommunication company.4 External debt is defined according to the residency principle. Notwithstanding the comprehensive coverage, staff assumes a larger contingent liability shock of 4.5 percent of GDP than the default level of 2 percent of GDP, to account for additional risks associated with large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) . Financial market shock is assumed at 5 percent of GDP, the default level.  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n| 1 Public debt coverage Sub-sectors covered Central government X 2 State and local government X 3 Other elements in the general government 4 o/w: Social security fund 5 o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) 6 Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) X 7 Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) X 8 Non-guaranteed SOE debt X\u003Cbr> |\n\n2. The coverage of debt statistics is comprehensive. The authorities publish domestic and external debt statistics of the Federal government and SOEs on a quarterly basis.5 Debt reporting  \n3 The coverage differs from the official public debt data in two aspects: the DSA does not include Ethiopian Airlines but includes the deposits of two bilateral creditors at the central bank, as these deposits have the economic characteristics of debt (interest rate and a regular debt-service schedule until maturity , and that a public entity is responsible for servicing these debts) and meeting balance of ","cbCaieatzraRnWG0","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaieatzraRnWG0","pdf",1146178,1,25,"English","en",105,"# Executive assessment\n## Risk of external debt distress\n## Overall risk of debt distress\n## Application of judgment\n# Debt coverage and indicators\n## Debt coverage and subsectors\n## Downgrade of debt carrying capacity\n## Contingent liability shocks and assumptions\n# Debt dynamics\n## Public and publicly guaranteed debt trends\n## External debt composition and changes","[{\"question\":\"Why does the analysis assess Ethiopia’s external debt as unsustainable?\",\"answer\":\"It links unsustainability mainly to prolonged breaches of exports-related external debt indicators. Following a missed Eurobond interest payment in December 2023, the country is assessed to be in debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"What events triggered key changes in debt risk ratings?\",\"answer\":\"Debt carrying capacity was downgraded to “weak” in October 2022. In December 2023, Ethiopia missed a Eurobond interest payment, reinforcing the debt distress assessment.\"},{\"question\":\"How is debt coverage defined in this Debt Sustainability Analysis?\",\"answer\":\"Coverage follows the LIC-DSF guidance and includes federal government debt, central bank IMF-related debt, selected bilateral creditor claims, guaranteed and non-guaranteed SOE-related debt (including Ethio-Telecom treatment). External debt is defined using the residency principle.\"}]",1784491494,63,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"ethiopia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-preliminary-analysis","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/ethiopia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-preliminary-analysis/111737/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"Why does the analysis assess Ethiopia’s external debt as unsustainable?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"It links unsustainability mainly to prolonged breaches of exports-related external debt indicators. Following a missed Eurobond interest payment in December 2023, the country is assessed to be in debt distress.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What events triggered key changes in debt risk ratings?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Debt carrying capacity was downgraded to “weak” in October 2022. In December 2023, Ethiopia missed a Eurobond interest payment, reinforcing the debt distress assessment.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How is debt coverage defined in this Debt Sustainability Analysis?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Coverage follows the LIC-DSF guidance and includes federal government debt, central bank IMF-related debt, selected bilateral creditor claims, guaranteed and non-guaranteed SOE-related debt (including Ethio-Telecom treatment). 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