[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109827-en":3,"doc-seo-109827-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109827,1374391974468,"Eden","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_29158cc5080c5b710cf443261637dec0",8,"Research & Report","Ethiopia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020","Joint World Bank and IMF debt sustainability analysis for Ethiopia assesses the country’s public and publicly guaranteed debt under the LIC-DSF framework. The baseline indicates high risk of external and overall debt distress, with vulnerabilities driven by rising debt service needs, an overvalued exchange rate, and a narrow export base. COVID-19 weakens growth and exports and increases liquidity pressures, raising uncertainty around debt sustainability. The analysis recommends FX reforms, monitoring contingent liabilities, and strengthening debt management and reporting.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nTHE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nApril 2020  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Zeine Zeidane and Seán Nolan (IMF)  \n\n| Ethiopia: Joint Bank––Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis1 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Risk of overall debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgement | None |\n| Macroeconomic projection | Near-term growth projections were revised downward on account of the domestic and external impact of COVID-19. Exports, in particular services exports, will contract significantly in 2019/20. |\n| Financing strategy | Urgent balance of payments needs will be covered by Fund financing, donor support, debt relief, and reserves draw down. The World Bank recently approved US$82.6 million for a COVID- 19 project and is exploring modalities for additional support. |\n| Realism tools flagged | Growth, exports, fiscal adjustments, and financing needs have downside risks. |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA | High |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the public DSA | High |\n\n1 This debt sustainability analysis (DSA) was conducted using the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (LIC-DSF) that was approved in 2017.  \nEthiopia’s public and publicly guaranteed debt is deemed sustainable, but downside risks and liquidity pressures have increased due to high uncertainty surrounding the intensity and duration of the COVID- 19 outbreak and its implications for the economic outlook.2, 3 Ethiopia’s debt vulnerabilities stem from rising debt servicing needs, an overvalued exchange rate, and a small export base. The authorities have taken steps to reduce vulnerability by controlling external borrowing, debt service reprofiling, and committing to move toward market-based exchange rate andFX market liberalization, both of which should improve FX availability and boost private sector activity and exports. Under the baseline, two external debt indicators breach their thresholds. As a result, Ethiopia continues to be assessed at“high”risk of debt distress. The authorities have committed to undertaking additional reprofiling by the first review under theECF-EFF arrangementsto reduce external debt servicing needs relativeto exports, with an aim of achieving a “moderate” risk of external debt distress rating. However, against the backdrop of the pandemic, the capacity to absorb shocks has declined indicating liquidity pressures. As such, a larger or more persistent impact of the COVID-19 shock than presently assumed could threaten debt sustainability. Steadfast implementation ofFX reforms would reduce these pressures over the medium term and safeguard Ethiopia's capacity to repay the Fund. Monitoring of contingent liabilities, the main vulnerability of overall public debt, and continued improvement in debt management and reporting are recommended.  \nMacroeconomic Outlook. In the context of a rapidly changing global situation due to COVID-19, the near-term macroeconomic outlook has been revised since the 2019 Article IV DSA. Growth is revised down to 3.2 percent and to 3.7 percent in 2019/20 and 2020/21, respectively, because of the expectation that the COVID-19 outbreak, includingthe related global slowdown, will have a significant impact on economic activity. The authorities have already put in place social distancing and other containments measures. Real GDP growth will converge to 8 percent over the medium term. Against this challenging global backdrop, exports and remittances are projected to contract significantly, but weak domestic demand and a decline in foreign direct investment will also lead to a contrac","cbCaiahXIK01blzs","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiahXIK01blzs","pdf",480647,5,1,14,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment Summary\n## External Debt Distress and Overall Distress\n## Granularity and Judgement\n# Macroeconomic Outlook\n## Growth, Exports, Remittances, and Inflation\n## Current Account and Fiscal Balance\n# Financing Strategy\n## Balance of Payments Needs\n## Support, Debt Relief, and Reserves\n# Policy Recommendations\n## FX Reforms and Liquidity Pressures\n## Monitoring Contingent Liabilities and Debt Management","[{\"question\":\"What does the analysis conclude about Ethiopia’s debt distress risk?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates both external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk as high, with baseline concerns linked to liquidity pressures and downside uncertainty from COVID-19.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors create Ethiopia’s key debt vulnerabilities?\",\"answer\":\"Vulnerabilities stem from rising debt servicing needs, an overvalued exchange rate, and a small export base, which weaken the capacity to withstand shocks.\"},{\"question\":\"How does COVID-19 affect the macroeconomic outlook and debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"COVID-19 leads to downward revisions to near-term growth and significantly contracts exports and remittances, while revenues weaken and spending needs rise, increasing liquidity pressures and uncertainty around sustainability.\"}]","Ethiopia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020 | PDF",1784482562,35,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":88,"head_meta":90,"extra_data":92,"updated_unix":29},"ethiopia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":87},[38,55,70],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":54},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/ethiopia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020/109827/",4,{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":56,"author":57,"headline":13,"publisher":59,"fileFormat":62,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":63,"datePublished":64,"encodingFormat":62,"isAccessibleForFree":65,"interactionStatistic":66},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":58},"Person",{"url":42,"name":60,"@type":61},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-29","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":67,"interactionType":68,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":69},"ViewAction",{"@type":71,"mainEntity":72},"FAQPage",[73,79,83],{"name":74,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":76},"What does the analysis conclude about Ethiopia’s debt distress risk?","Question",{"text":77,"@type":78},"The analysis rates both external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk as high, with baseline concerns linked to liquidity pressures and downside uncertainty from COVID-19.","Answer",{"name":80,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":81},"What factors create Ethiopia’s key debt vulnerabilities?",{"text":82,"@type":78},"Vulnerabilities stem from rising debt servicing needs, an overvalued exchange rate, and a small export base, which weaken the capacity to withstand shocks.",{"name":84,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":85},"How does COVID-19 affect the macroeconomic outlook and debt sustainability?",{"text":86,"@type":78},"COVID-19 leads to downward revisions to near-term growth and significantly contracts exports and remittances, while revenues weaken and spending needs rise, increasing liquidity pressures and uncertainty around sustainability.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":89,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":60,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":91,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":94},[95,99,103,107,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":96,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":98},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":100,"show_sort_weight":101,"slug":102},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":54,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":20,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]