[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111631-en":3,"doc-seo-111631-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111631,7971461740909,"Levi","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d",8,"Research & Report","Ethiopia - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - preliminary analysis","Ethiopia faces political, economic, and humanitarian challenges, and weakened international support during the Tigray conflict. Debt service bunching and adverse developments have created heightened debt repayment risks, and the country is assessed as having unsustainable external debt capacity. Following a missed Eurobond interest payment in December 2023, Ethiopia is in debt distress. Restoring sustainability requires timely implementation of reforms and coordinated debt relief, with targeted movement to a moderate risk rating by the end of the approved ECF arrangement.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA) , and Annalisa Fedelino (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staffs of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT\u003Cbr>SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS1 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Unsustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nEthiopia faces political, economic, and humanitarian challenges. Support from the international community weakened notably during the two-year conflict in Tigray. Bunching of debt service in the near to medium term and adverse developments have led to the realization of debt repayment risks.  \nEthiopia’s debt is assessed to be unsustainable, mainly due to protracted breaches of exports-related external debt indicators and is based on a weak Debt Carrying Capacity (DCC) .2 Following a missed Eurobond interest payment in December 2023, the country is in debt distress. Timely implementation of the authorities’ reform agenda and debt relief from external creditors are required to alleviate liquidity pressures and restore debt sustainability. The authorities have committed to achieving a moderate risk of debt distress rating by the end of the approved ECF arrangement. An Official  \n1 This preliminary analysis is based on the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (LICDSF) that was approved in 2017.  \n2 The composite indicator based on the April 2025 October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) and 2023 World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) data that was published in July 2024, is currently estimated at 2.51.  \nCreditor Committee under the G20 Common Framework (OCC) was formed in September 2021 and agreed tosuspend debt service due in 2023 and 2024 on November 9,2023 .  \nAn agreement in principle (AIP) on the key terms for a debt treatment between the OCC and the Ethiopian authorities was reached on March 21, 2025, and the Memorandum of Understanding on this debt treatment is expected in the near term. The illustrative debt treatment reflecting the AIP between the authorities and the OCC and the authorities’latest proposal for the debt treatment of other commercial creditors, would close the program’s external financing gap and restore a moderate risk of external debt distress by bringing all debt indicators below their respective DSA thresholds in the FY2027/28, when the IMF program ends.  \n1. Debt coverage under this Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) is consistent with the LIC– DSF guidance and previous DSAs.3 In particular, the DSA includes Federal government debt, the central bank’s debt to the IMF and two bilateral creditors, guaranteed nonfinancial public enterprises’ debt, and non-guaranteed debt of Ethio-Telecom, a major telecommunication company.4 External debt is defined according to the residency principle. Notwithstanding the comprehensive coverage, staff assumes a larger contingent liability shock of 4.5 percent of GDP than the default level of 2 percent of GDP, to account for additional risks associated with large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) . Financial market shock is assumed at 5 percent of GDP, the default level.  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n| 1 Public debt coverage Sub-sectors covered Central government X 2 State and local government X 3 Other elements in the general government 4 o/w: Social security fund 5 o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) 6 Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) X 7 Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) X 8 Non-guaranteed SOE debt X\u003Cbr> |\n\n2. The coverage of debt statistics is comprehensive. The authorities publish domestic and external debt statistics of the Federal government and SOEs on a quarterly basis.5 Debt reporting continues to imp","cbCaikDdyg1hXLMJ","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaikDdyg1hXLMJ","pdf",1391389,1,28,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and overall conclusions\n## External debt distress rating\n## Drivers of unsustainability and debt carrying capacity\n# Debt treatment and policy requirements\n## Reform agenda and liquidity pressures\n## G20 Common Framework agreement process\n## Illustrative treatment and target indicators\n# Coverage and methodology\n## Debt coverage under LIC-DSF\n## Contingent liability and financial market shocks\n## Debt data reporting and inclusions/exclusions","[{\"question\":\"Why is Ethiopia assessed as facing unsustainable external debt capacity?\",\"answer\":\"Unsustainability is linked to prolonged breaches of exports-related external debt indicators and a weak Debt Carrying Capacity (DCC). A missed Eurobond interest payment in December 2023 led to debt distress status.\"},{\"question\":\"What actions are required to restore debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"Timely implementation of the authorities’ reform agenda and debt relief from external creditors are required to alleviate liquidity pressures and restore sustainability. The authorities aim to achieve a moderate risk of debt distress by the end of the approved ECF arrangement.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the analysis include in terms of debt coverage?\",\"answer\":\"The DSA covers federal government debt, the central bank’s debt to the IMF and two bilateral creditors, guaranteed and non-guaranteed public enterprise and Ethio-Telecom debt, using the residency principle for external debt definition.\"}]",1784491003,71,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"ethiopia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-preliminary-analysis","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/ethiopia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-preliminary-analysis/111631/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"Why is Ethiopia assessed as facing unsustainable external debt capacity?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Unsustainability is linked to prolonged breaches of exports-related external debt indicators and a weak Debt Carrying Capacity (DCC). A missed Eurobond interest payment in December 2023 led to debt distress status.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What actions are required to restore debt sustainability?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Timely implementation of the authorities’ reform agenda and debt relief from external creditors are required to alleviate liquidity pressures and restore sustainability. The authorities aim to achieve a moderate risk of debt distress by the end of the approved ECF arrangement.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What does the analysis include in terms of debt coverage?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The DSA covers federal government debt, the central bank’s debt to the IMF and two bilateral creditors, guaranteed and non-guaranteed public enterprise and Ethio-Telecom debt, using the residency principle for external debt definition.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]